Yesterday's PA was particularly lopsided. Various metrics are pointing to extremes. NDX30482.352 rallied 2.8%, while RUT2875.36 and DJI52048.83 gained just 0.5% and 0.7%. Their continued underperformance is consistent with what I outlined in Tactical Positioning: businesses outside AI are being hit hard by the macro backdrop of the Iran war.

SPX7764.7 rallied at least 1% to within 1% of a new high even as more constituents made new lows than new highs. There were only two previous instances: July 23, 1929, and December 21, 1999. The market peaked 46 days after the first, on September 7, 1929. SPX peaked 94 days after the second, on March 24, 2000. NDX is also showing extremes, with some momentum indicators reaching levels seen only in 1999.

KOSPI did open above 7.1K overnight, as I expected. However, it failed to hold above that level into the close. NVDA226.65, SOXX553.73 and KOSPI are the bellwethers of this bull run. Trump has been actively manipulating oil and yields through self-engineered TACOs—including his reversal on Houthi strikes—and trade talks, as I said he would. Given that oil and yields are being actively managed, NVDA, SOXX and KOSPI are now more important to monitor than yields. These precedents are consistent with my view that equities should form a swing high in the coming weeks before sizeable declines in the months that follow.

Tick Tock...