SPX rallied more than 3% this week, shattering many bears. I called a ST bottom at last Friday’s close, and ES rallied more than 200 handles from there. I also called a ST top before Trump’s address to the nation on Wednesday night, which caused a sharp selloff in equity futures, with ES dumping 150 handles from the top before reversing. Despite the sharp rally and a resilient tape on Thursday, the structure remains inherently bearish. So far, this rally appears to be nothing more than a bear market rally, which tends to be very forceful and can drive out unconvinced bears before reversing lower. Note that SPX volume on Thursday was the lightest it has been since 01/02/26, which suggests a lack of strength and conviction behind the rally. Our downside target remains around 6.1K.

NDX was rejected at the key 24.2K resistance. This relief rally appears to be a backtest before heading lower.