Futures were bid ahead of the Trump–CN-X meeting and fell sharply afterward; ES is trading near yesterday's RTH low as of writing. Trump extended the tariff truce for another year, halved fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, paused China's rare-earth magnet controls for a year, and included large U.S. soybean purchases; the U.S. also extended the suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariff for a year (not newly announced). They did not discuss approvals for Nvidia's Blackwell chips.
Trump ordered nuclear weapons trials in response to recent Russian tests, the first such U.S. move since 1992. Central banks diverged: the Fed cut 25 bps yesterday, and Powell's remark that a December cut is "not a foregone conclusion" pushed Treasury yields higher and faded gold's earlier rally; futures still price ~70% odds of a December cut, though about 15% lower than before Powell's remark. The BOJ kept rates on hold while signaling a possible hike as soon as December.
Mag7 capex guidance continues to beat expectations, and the distortions created by their advance persisted yesterday: 376 of 500 stocks fell while SPX finished flat. I expect the trend to continue in the coming months as the economy weakens. This poses challenges as traditional hedges such as ES1!6891 or SPX6890.59 put options no longer work as clean offsets. Bipartisan talks to end the shutdown is expected to begin soon. Prediction markets show a 39% chance of ending the shutdown after Nov 16, a 10% decrease from three days ago.