BZ1!96.046Still, there has been no real breakthrough in the Middle East. Iran and Oman have moved a temporary Hormuz arrangement into draft form, but nothing has been finalized, the core disputes remain unresolved, and traffic through the Strait is still a fraction of normal. The only constant is another conflicting headline or unverified claim from one side or the other every 15 minutes.

You are probably tired of reading the same Iran analysis from me, so I will skip the full update this week. For newer readers, I have covered this setup extensively in Tactical Positioning every week for the past four months. You can find the previous posts by scrolling down the blog.

The SPR is still being drained aggressively, marking the 19th consecutive weekly draw. The stockpile has fallen by 110.6m barrels since March 20. SPR releases are still helping keep crude contained, but they do not resolve Hormuz. Unless a peace deal is reached, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Technical

There are no other meaningful fixed technical levels because daily moves are dictated by headlines. The only thresholds that matter are the 70s on the downside and 100-120 on the upside. Below the 70s, the likelihood of escalation rises sharply. Above 100, and especially above 120, the odds of another TACO increase dramatically. Without a meaningful development in the Middle East, the tape should remain inside the channel and stay in sell-high, buy-low mode.