NDX followed through after the wedge resolved lower, breaking 28.6K and printing another lower low around 27.2K. I called the bottom at Wednesday's close, and NQ subsequently reversed sharply higher.

NDX then backtested 28.6K from below, while NQ tested 28.8K-29K resistance from below. We saw a sharp reversal from these levels at Friday's open. Once again, our levels proved surgical.

This resistance zone also lines up with 533 on SOXX, another vital level I have been monitoring for months.

For the rebound to extend, NDX must break above 28.6K, NQ must deliver a sustained close above 28.8K-29K, and ES must clear 7.55K. Until those resistance levels clear, this can still be a dead-cat bounce or a broader bear-market rally. If they fail, the path of least resistance remains lower.

SPX tested 7.27K and briefly broke below the ascending trendline before closing back above it. ES briefly breached 7.36K, then reversed sharply, delivering the immediate bounce I expected in the July 31 Desk Note.

This keeps 7.58K on SPX and 7.63K on ES in play, but ES first faces ST resistance at 7.55K. Sustained closes above 7.58K on SPX and 7.63K on ES reopen the path to ATH. Until then, this can still be a dead-cat bounce or a broader bear-market rally.

A sustained break back below 7.27K on SPX or 7.36K on ES confirms another leg lower, with 7.1K next on SPX.