NDX NQ

As the indices become increasingly concentrated, the negative macro backdrop is being masked by strength in semis and by lower oil prices despite record inventory draws and record-low inventories. For the market to return to reality, it likely needs one of three triggers: oil breaking out, rate hikes, or the AI frenzy coming to an end.

Timing the top is difficult, especially in a culminating move like this. For now, I would tighten stops and protect profits. The market will send clearer signals once the trend starts to reverse.

SPX backtested its lifeline and bounced. As long as that level holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A clean breach below would be the first real warning that the trend is starting to crack.