JPY outperformed all its major peers ahead of the BoJ's widely anticipated move to raise its benchmark interest rate this week. Senators in both parties are bracing for another government shutdown next year after Republicans blocked a proposal to extend expiring health insurance subsidies, the same issue that triggered the 43 day closure that consumed much of the fall calendar.
Equities continue to edge lower after we called a local top last Friday. With NQ1!25033 breaking the support zone and ORCL183.97 marking a new low, now only 5% away from being halved from its 09/10 peak, the prospects for a Santa rally are looking increasingly bleak. Note that BxC has been leading to the downside for some time and is showing no desire to climb back. At around 75k, MSTR165.4 is effectively at breakeven on its holdings, and around 25k it would be liquidated.
GC1!4322.4 made another failed attempt to print a new ATH yesterday and retraced about 100 per ounce at one point overnight. As I mentioned, GC must make a new ATH in the near term, otherwise we should expect a larger pullback.
Futures were weak overnight as the Nikkei broke down below a multi month support line, which I posted on X over the weekend. This brought ES1!6872 to 6830 at one point. Futures have since rallied back to unchanged as we head into NFP.