Stocks attempted to extend Friday's rebound yesterday, but momentum stalled without a specific headline driving the afternoon slump. Retail flows showed signs of fatigue, with BxC falling below $90,000. Amazon's $15 billion bond sale highlighted the debt-fueled nature of the next phase of AI CAPEX, signaling cash shortages and deteriorating balance sheets like we discussed yesterday.

Futures are weaker, with both NQ1!31,011.32 and RTY1!2,856.3 lagging as the market searches for a level. Pre-market, most Mag7 names are lower, with AAPL333.15 and GOOG in the green, while semiconductors lag. The focus is on delayed August/September macro data releases, but the market is primarily awaiting NVDA235.09 earnings and NFP. Fed Minutes may provide insights into the reaction function into December, while the bond market reduces the probability of further Fed easing, currently below 50%. I continue to anticipate Fed rate cuts in December and January, contingent on further labor market loosening. The Supreme Court may rule against IEEPA tariffs, potentially introducing new policy uncertainty if the government reestablishes similar tariff rates through other measures.

Gold briefly broke below 4,000, aligning with our view that once the 4,100 support broke, consolidation below 4,000 was likely. The gold and silver double tops appear to be playing out, while the equities double bottom failed with SPX7,722.72 closing below our key trendline yesterday. NVDA earnings and a SPX close back above the trendline on Friday could potentially save the market, similar to the previous two Fridays. Yesterday also marked the fifth time in the past two months that NQ has tested the 24,400–24,600 support zone and managed to rebound. I expect a meaningful rally from 24,400, and if it coincides with NVDA earnings, it would likely be the optimal time to enter short.