Futures are under pressure, with all three indices down more than 1% and Mag7/Semis off 1%–3%. PLTR189.766 posted a decent earnings print, but its post-earnings spike faded quickly. PLTR and NVDA202.3 are bellwethers of this bull run—representing AI applications and AI infrastructure, respectively. Fading earnings beats are not a good sign, especially for leaders. Combined with several CEOs' remarks at a financial conference, major index futures faced orderly selling pressure overnight. Breadth remains a concern: last week saw two positive SPX days with terrible breadth (roughly 400 and 300 decliners on those up days). Yesterday, 319 SPX companies (~60%) finished lower, with only 4 of 11 sectors higher. Mag7—mostly AMZN249.09 and NVDA—did the heavy lifting. The weak breadth is a reminder of the dot-com bubble.
SCOTUS will hear arguments on emergency tariffs; expectations are that the actions will be declared unlawful, potentially triggering a short-squeeze rally. With the government shutdown about to become the longest in U.S. history, the Senate Majority Leader said he is "optimistic" an agreement can be reached this week. Historically, on the day the shutdown ends, the SPX tends to close in positive territory.