US10Y Global long-end yields are on an ominous trajectory. I warned about long-end yields exploding to the upside back in 25Q4, and they're set to only grind higher. In May, referring to the US10Y multi-year descending trendline, I wrote, "This is perhaps the only real resistance global long-end yields have left." That resistance has now broken.

On FOMC day, Warsh, Trump's latest Fed puppet, unsurprisingly held rates steady. Equities initially reversed sharply higher. Trump then tested the waters by threatening to strike Iran. The bond vigilantes slapped Trump in the face. Long-end yields surged, US30Y broke to its highest level since July 2007, and the equity rally was erased into the close. US30Y extended the move later in the week.

That move is very bad for Trump and the U.S. economy. It is also backfiring on his effort to reduce the government's debt-service burden.

Yield trends can run for years, and the recent breakouts in US10Y and US30Y may mark the continuation of the stagflation era I have anticipated for years. In my view, that era began when Powell delayed rate hikes to secure a second term, allowing post-Covid inflation to spiral out of control.

The easing cycle that began in 2024 gave the bond market temporary relief, but that relief is now over. Those resistance levels have given way, and yield trends are extremely difficult to reverse once they begin. The window for Trump to reverse course is closing. If he fails, I can easily see US10Y and US30Y moving into the 6%-7% range over the coming years.

US10Y saw follow-through on last week's breakout above multi-year resistance. As long as it holds above the broken trendline, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained move back below it invalidates the breakout.