Trading Desk

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CL1!

BZ1!Washington is now targeting the tanker and diesel bottlenecks. The proposed sanctions changes would allow individual tankers to be delisted for legitimate operators to carry non-sanctioned oil.

Gulf crude exports recovered in September, but product exports remained below half their pre-war level. This week's CPI and PPI confirmed continued pressure from energy and freight. Brent rose as lawmakers moved to block the Russian diesel deal, while renewed Middle East tensions and attacks on Russian refineries kept supply risks elevated.

XAGUSD

XAUUSDDespite lower real yields, gold has made no meaningful attempt to rally. The market is likely looking ahead to a prolonged war and an inevitable breakout in yields above the resistance we are watching, which should drag gold much lower. In the short term, 4,110 has held firm over the past few weeks. A decisive break below that level opens further downside.

I warned about this ominous-looking chart last week. It lost roughly 20% in a week. As I wrote then, "KOSPI is indicative of the typical run into the tulip stage of any bull run, and typically, as we have seen from its PA, it doesn't bounce back to key levels (7.1K)."

Foreign selling in Korea now coincides with fading corporate buybacks. The latest desk flows showed continued selling in Korean technology even as local institutions and retail bought.