G-Test · Publication navigation acceptance 20261011.AMZN·Bullish@120.00
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G-Test · Publication navigation acceptance 20261011.AMZN·Bullish@120.00
The diesel shock reaches further than the pump. Higher freight and distribution costs can feed into prices that sit inside core inflation. Jet fuel does the same through airfares. The current risk is that expensive crude delivery discourages refinery runs while finished fuels remain tight.
HO1!
RB1!
Our prophecy was fulfilled on Tuesday as SPX delivered our expected new ATH. Breadth remains weak, as evidenced by RUT and DJI. The tape has grown weaker and weaker over the past few days despite the new ATHs. Cross-asset technicals and narratives are giving conflicting signs for U.S. equities. As yields hover around critical resistance, I expect a pullback is in order, which could cushion equities in the ST. As mentioned repeatedly, Trump only cares about 1) yields, 2) inflation prints, 3) stock market performance and 4) approval ratings. A push in any of these will support equities. However, the three key AI bellwethers are showing weakness, as SOXX failed to hold above the generational resistance and NVDA is once again back below 230. KOSPI is much worse: it has never been able to break through the 7.1K resistance and has dipped below the ST trendline. KOSPI is indicative of the typical run into the tulip stage of any bull run, and typically, as we have seen from its PA, it doesn't bounce back to key levels. Despite the ostensibly flattering tape on SPX and NDX, underneath I smell greed and chaos. Stay vigilant. I expect vol to pick up as we near the election.
ES1!
NQ1!
01810.HK
601899
00700.HK bounced alongside HTI1! from the key support level.
JPM's earnings, scheduled for October 13, provide the next check on earnings and credit quality.
XLF
GDX has filled one major gap from its August gap-up. If XAUUSD breaks below its July low, I expect GDX to fill the remaining August gaps.
PLTR is another sign of the possible AI rotation I mentioned earlier.
MAGS is another key asset to watch. If the market somehow manages to pull off a rotation between the semis and DRAM (SOXX, NVDA, and KOSPI) and MAGS, there may still be a chance of the bull run being extended for longer.
NIFTYThe RBI raised its policy rate by 25 bp to 5.5% on October 7 and moved to calibrated tightening. NIFTY's decline continued toward 21.97K–22.10K before Friday's rebound, and the levels continue to work miraculously.
SOXAs if by magic—or was it me?
Looking ominous.
KOSPI