VIXPositioning estimates show elevated systematic equity exposure while discretionary positioning has weakened. That leaves the market vulnerable to an unwind if volatility turns higher.
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VIXPositioning estimates show elevated systematic equity exposure while discretionary positioning has weakened. That leaves the market vulnerable to an unwind if volatility turns higher.
HG1!Copper's physical supply remains tight. Chile's August production fell sharply, and Chinese exchange inventories declined further ahead of the holiday. That has helped copper hold near its highs despite the stronger dollar and higher yields. Physical buying on the pullback would support another attempt higher. Weaker premiums and rebuilding inventories would challenge that supply case. In the meantime, copper remains exposed to a positioning unwind while the dollar and yields stay firm.
HTI1!has lost the 4.25K support I repeatedly highlighted, and the latest rebound failed to reclaim it. The downside warning is playing out.
USDJPY
SOXI still expect a major swing high. The dot-com comparison I first showed around the June peak remains central to that view. Strong supplier earnings can coexist with a speculative capex boom while customer returns remain the weak point in the funding story.
SOXX reclaiming its long-term trendline and NVDA breaking above 230 are challenging the timing of that call. If the breakouts hold and leadership strengthens, the bearish timing moves back. Failed breakouts would bring the topping risk straight back into focus.
US02YThe data are giving the Fed room to slow the pace of tightening. Weak hiring, downward payroll revisions and softer core PCE have reduced the urgency of another hike. Even without these data, I doubt Warsh will deliver a hike at the October FOMC meeting. He will play the obedient little puppet Trump wants him to be. The two-year yield has pulled back after approaching 5%, as we expected last week. The energy shock is still feeding through the economy. My concern remains that inflation will keep the Fed under pressure.
XAGUSDhas joined gold on the downside. It has lost 63.13 and is testing the longer-term rising trendline as yields and the dollar remain firm.
KOSPISeptember semiconductor shipments reached a record US$60.3bn, confirming the strength in the early-month data. KOSPI still has to convert that strength into a sustained break above 7.1K. It remains the missing confirmation among the three bellwethers I have been tracking. The rising trendline continues to support higher lows.
NIFTYAs I have warned since the war began and repeatedly over the past few months, India is particularly exposed to the Iran war's energy and inflation shock. With nearly 90% of its crude imported, higher oil prices pressure the rupee and feed inflation. September manufacturing PMI recovered to 55.1, but input-cost inflation also accelerated. Better factory activity has not removed those headwinds.
NIFTY has followed the downside path towards 21.97K-22.10K after losing 24.34K and its ascending trendline. A sustained break opens further downside.
NVDA closed the week above 230. The additional $150B buyback authorization reinforces its ability to invest and return capital. The longer-term AI risk still sits with the customers funding the buildout and the returns they earn on it.
601899
Z1! keeps moving lower after failing to reclaim its ascending trendline. Selective buying of UK domestic and consumer stocks in the latest prime-broker flows has done little for the broader index.
HSIremains bearish below 25.25K. The post-holiday gap lower extended the decline after another failed recovery. China's September manufacturing surveys improved, but the strength in production and exports is still running ahead of domestic demand. I continue to watch 22.55K on the downside.
SOXXhas broken above the generational ascending trendline that capped it since July.
XLF Higher asset yields can support bank income, but weaker borrowers and losses on bond portfolios put the other side of the balance sheet under pressure. My concern is that weaker growth and credit quality eventually outweigh the income benefit.52.8 can produce a tactical bounce. A sustained break opens further downside.