MAGSTechnical: MAGS remains inside a contracting range and is now testing descending trendline resistance.
Loading...
MAGSTechnical: MAGS remains inside a contracting range and is now testing descending trendline resistance.
USDJPYTechnical: USDJPY has reclaimed the ascending trendline. As long as it holds, 162.58 remains in play.
US30YTechnical: US30Y remains above 5.18%. As long as it holds, 5.3% remains in play. Below 5.18%, the ascending trendline comes back into play.
GOOGLTechnical: GOOGL is testing the upper channel boundary, with 343.7 as key support. A sustained break above the upper boundary opens further upside. A sustained break below 343.7 keeps the path of least resistance to the downside.
HTI1!Technical: HTI has broken below 4.74K and remains below the broken descending trendline. Unless it reclaims 4.74K, 4.25K remains in play. A sustained move above 4.74K puts the broken descending trendline back in play, followed by 5.14K if the trendline is cleared.
BZ1! The TACO headline arrived just as oil approached 100, exactly as we had expected. It triggered a sharp drop in oil prices midweek but did not materially change the underlying situation. Hormuz flows remain below prewar levels, product inventories remain tight, and the SPR fell by another 3.7 million barrels, leaving just 289.7 million barrels in reserve. Oil also held up well through the hawkish Jackson Hole repricing while the dollar and front-end yields moved higher. No change to the technicals.
XAUUSD In the previous Tactical Positioning, I warned that elevated long-end yields did not bode well for gold and that silver was unlikely to sustain a rally without confirmation from gold. Both calls played out. Gold has pulled back to its breakout area, while silver was rejected at 70.
Warsh's hawkish message accelerated the move. US2Y surged back to 4.36%, while US10Y and US30Y remain elevated at 4.73% and 5.21%. The long-term thesis has not changed, but the rates backdrop still does not support chasing either metal without confirmation.
Technical
Gold is trading around its ascending trendline and the key support area at 4.4K-4.45K. This offers bulls a good entry with well-defined risk. A sustained break below 4.4K puts 4K back in play, followed by 3.9K.
KOSPI never delivered the confirmation bulls needed. The capitulation rebound stalled at resistance, and the index has spent the past two weeks going nowhere beneath it.
Technical
7.1K remains first resistance. Unless KOSPI breaks above it, 5.79K and the ascending trendline remain exposed. A sustained break above 7.1K puts 7.49K back in play, followed by 8.12K.
601899Technical: As long as Zijin remains above 32.4 and the ascending trendline, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below both puts 25 back in play.
PLTRTechnical: As long as 155.6 holds, the breakout remains intact. A sustained break below 155.6 puts the broken descending trendline back in play.
DXY The relief from Treasury's expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks has fully faded. Bond vigilantes have pushed yields higher again, helping DXY reclaim 99.38 and USDJPY reclaim its ascending trendline.
This is exactly what I expected last week: limited downside in DXY despite the dollar's structural weakness, and a continued grind higher in USDJPY as long as 155.5 held. Warsh's hawkish message accelerated both moves.
Technical
DXY has reclaimed 99.38. As long as 99.38 holds, 101.73 remains in play. A sustained move back below 99.38 puts the broken descending trendline back in play.
DX1!
XAGUSDTechnical: Silver was rejected again at 70 but remains above 63.1. As long as 63.1 holds, another test of 70 remains in play. A sustained move above 70 opens further upside, while a sustained break below 63.1 puts the ascending trendline back in play.
NIFTY’s breakout above the resistance I had tracked since April failed to hold. Price is now back at the ascending trendline. Until resistance is reclaimed, I would not chase the rebound.
Technical
NIFTY remains below 24.34K and is testing the ascending trendline. As long as the trendline holds, another move toward 24.34K remains in play. A sustained move above 24.34K opens further upside, while a sustained break below the trendline puts 22K-22.1K back in play.
BTC1! Higher front-end yields and a stronger dollar brought the latest BTC rally to a halt. The rebound from major support remains intact, but bulls still need to clear the descending trendline.
Technical
BTC was rejected at the descending trendline but remains above the upper boundary of the ascending channel. As long as that boundary holds, another test of the descending trendline remains in play. A sustained break above the descending trendline opens further upside. A sustained break below the channel boundary opens further downside.
MSFTTechnical: As long as 465 holds, further upside remains in play. A sustained break below 465 puts 395 back in play.
RUTTechnical: RUT has broken below its ST ascending trendline. 2.92K is next. A sustained break below opens further downside.
HSI After I called the exact late-June bottom, both HSI and HTI rallied more than 15%. That rebound has continued to lose momentum. HSI is still holding 25.25K but remains below the broken ascending trendline. HTI is weaker, having lost 4.74K after repeatedly failing below 5.14K.
Technical
HSI remains above 25.25K and below the broken ascending trendline. As long as 25.25K holds, another test of the trendline remains in play. A sustained break above the trendline puts 27.29K in play, while a sustained break below 25.25K puts 22.55K back in play.
US10YTechnical: US10Y remains above the broken multi-year descending trendline. As long as it holds, the path of least resistance remains higher.
US02Y Three weeks ago, I warned that Warsh could not keep rates low indefinitely while inflation pressure continued to build. The longer he suppressed them, the more violent the eventual repricing in yields would be.
That call is now playing out.
US2Y ripped back to 4.36% after Jackson Hole. US10Y and US30Y never gave back their breakouts.
Oil remains elevated. Agriculture has broken out. Copper is trying to follow. This is not the backdrop for low rates.
The post-buyback decline in yields has already been completely reversed. Trump and Bessent can suppress yields temporarily. They cannot suppress inflation indefinitely.
The bond vigilantes never left.
Technical
US2Y is back at 4.38%. A sustained break above it opens further upside. Rejection puts the ascending trendline back in play, followed by 4.02%. Below 4.02%, 3.77% comes into play.
XLFTechnical: The ascending trendline remains the immediate resistance. A sustained move back above it keeps further upside open. Failure puts 56.4 in play. A sustained break below 56.4 puts 52.8 back in play.
Z1! In July, I said a sustained break above 10.7K would open the door to 10.9K. That call played out.
FTSE has since spent several weeks trapped below 10.94K. Bulls have repeatedly failed to clear the ceiling, but bears have also failed to break the ascending trendline.
The next move is simple. Break 10.94K and FTSE goes higher. Lose the ascending trendline and the bullish structure fails.
Technical
As long as FTSE holds the ascending trendline, 10.94K remains in play. A sustained break above 10.94K opens further upside. A sustained break below the trendline opens the downside.
DJITechnical: DJI remains below its former ascending trendline. 51.6K is key support. A sustained break below puts 50.2K in play.