JP30Y
Since last year, we have been warning about the risk of global long-end yields exploding to the upside. This is still only the beginning.
Loading...
JP30Y
Since last year, we have been warning about the risk of global long-end yields exploding to the upside. This is still only the beginning.
XAUUSD Gold has now delivered the breakout and the sharp reversal higher. For anyone already holding precious metals, trailing stops are a must.
It is worth repeating: gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis, but it can trade like a risk asset during the liquidation phase itself. We are not in crisis mode yet. Even so, there remains a slim chance that the latest swing low was not the final bottom. Stay vigilant and have stops in place to protect profits.
I called the swing low around 4K, followed by the swing high around 4.4K. I later flagged another ST buying opportunity when gold pulled back from above 4.5K to retest its previous high. All three calls have now played out.
Technical
4.45K and 4.4K are now the key breakout support levels. As long as they hold, further upside remains open. A sustained break below 4.4K puts 4K back in play, followed by 3.9K.
601899Technical: As long as 32.4 and the ascending trendline hold, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below both puts 25 back in play.
US30YTechnical: US30Y remains above 5.18% after retesting it. As long as 5.18% holds, further upside remains in play. A sustained break below it puts the ascending trendline back in play.
Z1!Technical: As long as the ascending trendline holds, 10.94K remains in play. A sustained break above 10.94K opens further upside, while a break below the trendline opens more downside.
KOSPITechnical: KOSPI remains below 7.1K. A sustained move above it puts 7.49K in play. Continued rejection keeps 5.79K exposed.
MAGSTechnical: MAGS remains inside a tightening triangle. A sustained break above the descending trendline opens further upside, while a sustained break below the ascending trendline opens further downside.
US10YTechnical: US10Y remains above the broken multi-year descending trendline. As long as it holds, further upside remains in play. A sustained break back below it puts the ascending trendline back in play.
DXY Bond vigilantes have pushed yields back to where they were before Treasury announced its expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks. The buybacks initially pushed long-end yields lower, and DXY sold off with them. The dollar remains structurally weak as the market continues to lose confidence in the currency. Even so, given the macro backdrop, I expect the downside in DXY to remain limited.
Technical
A sustained break below the descending trendline opens further downside. A break above 99.4 reopens the path toward 101.7.
BZ1! As oil approaches 100, stay vigilant for a potential self-engineered TACO to tame oil prices. For oil bulls, have stops in place to protect your gains. For bears, I wouldn't short it even above 100 or at 120, the key TACO level, as the fundamentals are all against the bears.
Technical
Brent and WTI are both heading toward their upper channel boundaries. A sustained break above them opens further upside. If they fail there, the channel remains intact.
SOXX The ascending trendline is the generational resistance trendline that we have tracked since May to identify multiple swing highs and lows. Once again, it pinpointed the reversal level with surgical precision.
Technical
As long as SOXX remains below 533, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. A sustained break above 560, however, opens further upside.
XLFTechnical: On the downside, 56.4 is the first support.
BTC1! was one of the clearest beneficiaries of this week's Treasury TACO. As long-end yields and the dollar fell, BTC rallied alongside precious metals. The move was not driven by macro alone. Trump also renewed his push for the CLARITY Act.
Technical
A sustained break above the descending trendline opens further upside. If BTC fails there, the upper channel boundary comes back into play.
US02Y[Abridged from DeskNote 2026.08.20]
The cross-asset reaction to Treasury's expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks was immediate. Long-end yields fell sharply, DXY dumped, USDJPY faded, and gold, silver, and B** rallied.
As I have said repeatedly, Trump cares about only four things: 1) equity-market performance; 2) inflation prints; 3) Treasury yields; and 4) approval ratings. Of the four, yields matter most. He has struggled to keep oil contained, and oil staying elevated for longer has continued to push inflation expectations and long-end yields higher. As the US30Y yield reached a new 20-year high, he was forced to have Bessent pull a TACO on long-end yields by expanding Treasury's long-end buyback support.
The move immediately relieved pressure on long-duration assets, but I would not mistake it for a change in the underlying trend. As we have seen repeatedly in USDJPY, temporary policy measures rarely reverse a fundamentally driven move. Reversing the rise in long-end yields would require either normalization through the Strait of Hormuz or a stringent budget. I see little prospect of either.
That relief has already faded. US10Y and US30Y yields have moved back toward their highs, while US2Y has also moved higher.
Technical
US2Y is testing the short-term ascending trendline. As long as it holds, 4.4% remains in play. A sustained break below it puts 4% back in play.
MSFTTechnical: As long as 465 holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below 465 puts 395 back in play.
USDJPY was pushed lower as the dollar weakened, but unless MOF and the U.S. Treasury force a self-reinforcing unwind below 155.5, I still expect USDJPY to grind higher.
Technical
On the upside, 160 and the ascending trendline are the first hurdles, followed by 162.6.
METATechnical: As long as the lower ascending trendline holds, a rebound remains in play. A sustained break below it opens more downside.
Technical:EWY remains above 173.6. As long as it holds, further upside remains open. A sustained break below 173.6 puts 154.2 back in play.
CA30Y DE30Y FR30Y GB30Y IT30Y
Since last year, we have been warning about the risk of global long-end yields exploding to the upside. This is still only the beginning.
06181.HK
Technical:As long as price remains above the descending trendline, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break back below it opens more downside.
SPX retraced from the ascending resistance line as expected. Friday's PA points to a small chance of a bounce toward the all-time high before the midterm election.
Technical
On the downside, 7.58K is the first support.
For the bounce to materialize, both NDX and NQ1! must break above their descending trendlines. Otherwise, the path of least resistance for U.S. equities remains to the downside.
ES1! resolved the compressing wedge lower. Similar to SPX, there is a small chance of a bounce toward the all-time high before the midterm election.
On the downside, 7.63K is the first support.