XLFTechnical: As long as the ascending trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below the trendline would put 56.4 back in play. If 56.4 fails, 52.8 would be next.
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XLFTechnical: As long as the ascending trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below the trendline would put 56.4 back in play. If 56.4 fails, 52.8 would be next.
DXY The dollar remains under pressure after MoF and the U.S. Treasury carried out a coordinated intervention to support the yen. U.S. yields have also come off their highs, taking some of the bid out of the dollar.
Even so, I expect the downside in DXY to remain limited. My oil and yield views still favor renewed dollar upside, and I do not think the latest intervention has produced a durable trend change in the yen.
Technical
DXY reversed from our 101.7 resistance and is now trading below 100.25, which has turned back into resistance. Price is testing the lower end of the descending channel and 99.4 support. A sustained break below 99.4 opens further downside, while a move back above 100.25 puts the upper channel back in play, followed by 101.7.
HG1! Copper continues to edge higher, as I have expected since 2025. Its fundamentals remain strong, and I expect the grind higher to continue.
Technical
On the weekly chart, copper is still struggling to close above the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which has capped price for the past few years. A sustained weekly close above it should trigger a massive move higher in a short period. Until then, price should continue edging higher along the upper channel boundary. On the downside, 6.5 is first support, followed by 6.1.
METATechnical: META remains within the wide range defined by these two ascending trendlines. As long as it does not break below the lower trendline, a retest of the upper trendline remains in play. A sustained move above the upper trendline would open further upside, while a sustained break below the lower trendline would reopen the downside.
DJITechnical: DJI has rallied into the ascending trendline that has capped price since May, where I called for an immediate pullback. A sustained break above it would reopen the upside. On the downside, we have 51.6K as the first support, followed by 50.2K.
01810.HKTechnical: Xiaomi remains below the descending trendline after the latest rebound was rejected there. A sustained move above the trendline would put 36.86 in play, while a sustained move above 36.86 would open further upside. Continued rejection below the descending trendline would keep the long-term ascending trendline support exposed.
XOP retraced from 177.72 resistance as oil prices fell, as I expected. XOP remains primarily a function of oil, while oil remains a function of Trump's TACO and the endless TACOs layered on top of it.
Technical
A sustained move above 177.72 would open further upside. A sustained break below 161.61 would put the broken trendline back in play, followed by 155.98 if the trendline fails.
RUTTechnical: RUT has rebounded after holding 2.92K. A sustained break below 2.92K would put 2.8K back in focus.
Technical:000001 and 399001 both bounced from my support levels. SSE Composite briefly traded below 3.8K before reclaiming it. As long as 3.8K holds, the rebound remains intact. A sustained break back below it would reopen the downside.
Technical:Shenzhen Component bounced from 13.17K and reclaimed the ascending trendline. As long as price holds above the trendline, the rebound remains intact. A move back below it would put 13.17K in play again, while a sustained break below 13.17K would reopen the downside.
Technical:EWY remains capped by 173.6. A sustained reclaim of 173.6 would reopen the upside. A break below 154 would open the door to further downside.
I called the bottom at last week's low and warned of an immediate pullback in the middle of this week. Both calls proved surgically accurate.
We are still in a bubble, and it will burst when the time comes. The bounce from last week's midweek low does not mean the bubble is behind us. As I wrote in the 08.05 Desk Note, "The final leg of every bull run comes with brutal whipsaw moves that can wipe out generational wealth overnight." For now, unless we see signs that the next leg lower has begun, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
Technical
SPX and ES1! are trading inside tightening wedges that could resolve as early as next week. A sustained break above the upper boundaries would put a fast thrust toward 8K in play. On the downside, 7.58K is first support on SPX, while 7.63K is first support on ES.
NDX and NQ1! have rebounded into the descending trendlines from their June highs. A sustained break above the trendlines would reopen the upside. Another rejection would keep 28.6K in play on NDX. NQ shares a similar structure.
Precious metals have once again attracted market attention today, with gold breaking above the 4.2K resistance that capped the upside for the past six weeks. If you have followed our charts closely, you know that 3.9-4.0K has been a solid support area for the past two months, so this rally is not surprising. The ideal scenario where gold being dumped to 3.7-3.8K did not materialize as oil cooled and yields came off their highs.
For traders riding the rally, trail your stops. 4K is very likely the low, although there remains a small chance of a retest of 4K if Trump escalates. For this rally to evolve from a tactical bounce off support into a genuine bullish trend reversal and open the door to further upside, gold still needs to reclaim 4.4K. XAGUSD also needs to reclaim 64-65.
GDX has been showing promise since yesterday. It broke a key descending trendline resistance yesterday and is now testing another major resistance from below. Ideally, we want XAUUSD, silver, and GDX to line up before calling a real trend change.
It's increasingly apparent that our call on 601899 at 25 back in June was yet another surgical call to add to our track record, as I wrote in Tactical Positioning | Week of 06.22, "601899 broke... A bounce is very likely here."
On the macro side, $DXY has backed off its high, which is also providing some short-term support for precious metals. However, look closely at USDJPY. It failed to break and hold below 155. The chart is also a reminder of how important technical analysis is. TA is built purely on past PA and human behavior, yet it can reveal information that fundamental analysis often misses. Why? Because big players use TA too. The recent USDJPY action shows Bessent respected our levels while painting the chart in the past few sessions as if Trump had handed them over himself.
As I have said before, for an intervention to have a sustained effect, policymakers need to engineer a self-reinforcing spiral. In USDJPY, that means buying yen hard enough to force yen shorts into capitulation. 155.55 is the minimum level to monitor. If they fail to deliver that, we should see a gradual climb back toward 160 and eventually another ATH, because USDJPY fundamentals are now almost entirely dependent on oil prices, with oil inventories appearing to be at their lowest level since the 1970s.
The same logic applies to gold and silver. The Iran war is far from over. Oil has pulled back from its high as expected, but the lower oil falls, the greater the chance that Trump calls for another strike or escalation. If that happens, yields could explode and precious metals could be dumped. I have also said that, when the time comes, precious metals can rally alongside rising yields, and that happens when investors lose faith in the major currencies. We are not there yet.
Equities are down today, just as I warned at yesterday's close. On SPX, price reversed from the ascending trendline resistance that we used to call the top in early June. NDX also reversed from a key descending trendline, inflicting pains on those who ignored my warnings.
We had a hell of a bull run today. Underneath the surface, however, the VIX rose alongside the rally. For anyone feeling FOMO, chasing here is just as foolish as shorting when NQ was below 28K, if not more so. There is indeed room for further upside. But at what cost? Are you willing to pay?
If leverage was used on the way up, now is the time to start looking for opportunities to reduce exposure.
SOXX managed to close above our key resistance, while NDX closed above a key descending trendline. All bullish. The only concerns are the rising VIX and falling oil prices. Yes, falling oil prices are a concern, as lower oil gives Trump more room to escalate, and oil is now only $7 per barrel above its July low.
Unlike before, long-end yields are already at record levels, with US10Y and US30Y only 10bp off their highs. The next leg lower in equities is very likely to be accompanied by a sharp surge in yields, as we saw in the final hour last Wednesday. If Trump TACOs his TACO, oil doesn't need to climb back above $100, let alone $120, for yields to print new YTD highs.
We called the bottom and are now deep in the green. Don't get complacent. The final leg of every bull run comes with brutal whipsaw moves that can wipe out generational wealth overnight. Stay vigilant.
I mentioned last week that a move toward ATHs was a likely outcome for the indices. SPX is set to open above its ATH, while NQ1! is trading above our key resistance zone, turning it into support, thanks to another round of self-engineered TACO by Trump.
As I outlined over the weekend, Trump is under pressure to keep equities afloat, inflation readings and yields down, and approval ratings high ahead of the election. That is why we turned bullish right at the bottom in the middle of last week, when everyone thought it was the beginning of the end.
One downside risk to consider is that SOXX has still not breached the key 530 resistance. If it can't close above 530 and hold it, SPX's new ATH may not last long, and SOXX could once again drag the broader market lower.
USDJPY
USDJPY As I have said before, for an intervention to have a sustained effect, policymakers need to engineer a self-reinforcing spiral. In USDJPY, that means buying yen hard enough to force yen shorts into capitulation.
155.55 is the minimum level to monitor. If they fail to deliver that, we should see a gradual climb back toward 160 and eventually another ATH, because USDJPY fundamentals are now almost entirely dependent on oil prices, with oil inventories appearing to be at their lowest level since the 1970s.
00100.HK
226490
XAUUSD Gold and silver have remained range-bound in relatively tight ranges over the past five weeks, even as equities sold off and yields surged.
My long-term view on gold has not changed. I still expect gold to outperform most asset classes over the next few years, with massive upside from here. That view already assumes both short- and long-term yields continue higher. Higher yields have traditionally been a headwind for gold, but gold and silver can decouple from yields. I expect both metals to rally alongside yields when the time comes.
For gold, 3.9K-4K remains pivotal ST support. The longer price stays pinned around this level, the more violent the eventual move should be. Ideally, I would like to see one final false breakdown into 3.7K-3.8K to rinse the bulls who accumulated around 3.9K-4K, followed by a sharp reversal higher.
NKD1! has lost 63.8K, and this week's rebound was rejected at that level.
A sustained close back above 63.8K opens the door to further upside. If it fails here, the path of least resistance remains lower, with the recent low back in play.
DJIis holding horizontal support around 51.6K. As long as price remains above this support, the path of least resistance remains higher.
A sustained break below 51.6K opens the door to 50.2K.