Trading Desk

I called the low in equities on Wednesday, and SPX bounced sharply from there. Price is back pressing the recent highs around 7.6K, but the rising red resistance line still sits overhead.

A sustained close above 7.6K opens the door to the red trendline around 7.7K. If SPX fails to clear that area, 7.27K remains the first support. A confirmed break below 7.27K opens the door to 7.11K.

NDX is still holding the ascending trendline despite the surge in yields, but price remains capped by the descending trendline around 30K. The wedge should resolve over the next two weeks.

Hold the ascending trendline and NDX can make another run at 30K. A confirmed break above the descending trendline opens the door to 30.7K. A sustained break below the ascending trendline shifts the path toward 28.6K. Below 28.6K, 26.1K is next.

ES1! followed the same path and is back pressing the recent highs around 7.6K. Bulls need a sustained close above those highs to bring the red resistance line around 7.7K into play.

7.36K is the first support for ES. As long as it holds, another push higher remains in play. A sustained break below 7.36K opens the door to 7.14K.

06181.HK bounced but remains capped by the descending trendline. It needs a confirmed break above that line before there is any real upside to chase. That move would likely be accompanied by gold breaking above 4.4K. Below the trendline, the path of least resistance remains lower.

6181 has positioned itself as a luxury gold brand, with its products priced at a significant premium to competitors. Traditional luxury fashion houses command that premium through heritage, craftsmanship, and status. 6181 has failed to establish the first two. As gold falls, the frenzy fades, and the stock price tanks, it will likely struggle to sustain the third. That makes its luxury positioning increasingly questionable.

If 6181 cannot rebuild that positioning over the coming years, its valuation will likely converge toward peers, leaving further downside as the multiple compresses.

US30Y has already reclaimed the ascending trendline and pushed through 5%. Hold above 5% and 5.2% is next.

Z1! extended last week's breakout to 10.7K, then pulled back into the ascending trendline and bounced from there.

As long as FTSE holds above the ascending trendline, the path of least resistance remains higher. The prior high around 10.7K is the first resistance. A sustained close above it opens the door to the March high around 10.9K. A confirmed break below the ascending trendline would open the door to more downside.

CL1!  WTI shares almost the same structure as BZ. The main difference is that WTI trades at a discount to Brent and should move less in dollar terms during limited escalation. If the Middle East blows up again, BZ and CL should rise in tandem by roughly the same amount.

BZ1! Brent bounced from the lower channel line before reversing around 80. A sustained close above 80 opens the door to the channel midpoint in the high 80s, followed by 90. On the flip side, a confirmed break below the lower channel line opens the door to the low 60s. I consider that unlikely given the pace of SPR drawdowns.

The SPR was drawn down by more than 6m barrels last week, with the four-week average still above 7m barrels per week. Only around 320m barrels remain, down almost 100m since the war began.

Trump is running out of time. He can invade, go full TACO and get down on his knees begging Iran to reopen Hormuz, or keep waiting and watch oil return to the previous generational resistance around 120.

Bears keep arguing that rising U.S. production, improving vessel traffic and shadow-fleet flows are enough to offset the supply shock. That is simply wrong. I have repeatedly said that control over Hormuz gives Tehran direct leverage over oil prices, a more useful weapon than a nuclear weapon. If pushed far enough, Iran can widen the chokepoint war through the Houthis at Bab el-Mandeb.

My read is that Iran still wants peace. Traffic recovered whenever a deal looked close, briefly in April and again over the past three weeks. But unless the U.S. agrees to Iran's terms, this could still turn into a years-long war, as I predicted when the war began.

NIFTY failed again at 24.34K, as expected. A sustained break above it reopens the upside path. Failure there keeps the index range-bound between 22K and 24K.

NKD1! As long as the trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher, with the prior high around 73K as the next test. A sustained break below the trendline shifts the path toward 63.8K.

KOSPI Last week I said failure at 8.1K would leave 7.5K exposed, with 7.1K below. That path played out almost exactly. KOSPI failed at 8.1K, broke 7.5K, and tested 7.1K before bouncing.

KOSPI now needs to reclaim 7.5K and hold above it. That would stabilize the tape and put 8.1K back in play. Failure at 7.5K keeps 7.1K exposed. A confirmed break below 7.1K opens the door to 5.8K.

SOX The blue line is SOX during the dot-com era. So far, SOX has largely followed its dot-com playbook. We’ll see if this time is really any different.

SOXX

HTI1! extended the bounce from my 4.2K-4.25K support and is now testing the descending trendline around 4.74K. A sustained break above 4.74K opens the door to 5.14K. If it fails here, price could pull back toward 4.25K.

Price has reached my first target, so this is where I would start taking partial profits or tightening stops.

SOXX held 534 again and bounced. The sharper drawdowns and violent rebounds are exactly what I expected from the distribution-phase playbook I laid out a few weeks ago. I flagged SOXX for a rebound on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

As long as 534 holds, bulls remain in control. A sustained break below 534 opens the path lower.

XLF is testing its previous high around 56.4, leaving a potential double top in play.

The rally over the past few weeks is consistent with the market pricing a more hawkish Fed path, typically a tailwind for financials. A sustained break above 56.4 would invalidate the double top and signal that the market is pricing further hikes and a Fed that no longer treats the war as a temporary external shock whose effects can be quickly reversed, regardless of Warsh's message at the meeting.

MSFT bounced from our 342 support level and is now facing resistance around 395.

Unless MSFT reclaims 395 and holds above it, the path remains back toward 342. A confirmed break below 342 opens the door to another leg lower.

The supplier-hyperscaler divergence remains intact. As long as MSFT stays below 395 while semis edge higher, the tape will continue to signal that the free cash flow transfer from hyperscalers to AI hardware suppliers is not over.

XAGUSD bounced from the ascending trendline and remains trapped inside a compressing wedge. The wedge should resolve before mid-August.

As long as the ascending trendline holds, silver can make another run at the descending trendline. A confirmed break above the descending trendline opens the door to further upside. A sustained break below the ascending trendline shifts the path toward 53-52, followed by 48.

NDX and SOXX proved resilient as expected. See charts below. Both SOXX and NDX need to break support before we can expect more downside.

NDX rebounded alongside SOXX after SOXX tagged key support intraday https://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/e8011585-60e7-4d99-a02b-84102b960e75View notehttps://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/58d7b131-1956-41a5-b97e-f258f38655f3View note. Then the U.S. escalated by revoking Iran's oil waiver, which is a breach of the MOU. Oil surged in response and equities dumped.
NDX closed below key support today, as shown in the chart below. It needs to reclaim that level in the next few sessions. Otherwise, this could be the beginning of the end.

NVDA defended the support i flagged here: https://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/a3f48aa9-d560-40d1-ab9b-7f3efa5c9c11View note