Trading Desk

CL1! and BZ1! are catching bids as expected. If they hold above 70 for a few sessions, I expect a move toward the low 80s in the coming weeks.

SOXX must bounce here. Otherwise, it can get ugly very quickly.

NVDA is sitting on 190-196 support. A confirmed break below 190-196 opens the door to a retest of 167.
Tick Tock... Tick Tock...

BTC1!

I told you so
https://www.meridianresearch.app/notes/3b10d86d-5d44-4635-8523-ce85de5d26edView note

BTC1!

I told you so
#Bitcoin #BTC https://x.com/RealSean_G/status/2073834658245304495

XAUUSD Gold bounced from our 3.9K-4K support and is trying to stabilize. As long as 4K holds, downside pressure is contained and gold can push back toward 4.4K. A sustained close above 4.4K opens the door to a larger rebound. Lose 3.9K-4K, the next major support sits around 3.7K, followed by 3.4K.

VIX Volatility is trying to wake up, but it has not broken the structure yet. 14.2 remains the line in the sand on the downside. As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) holds above that level, volatility compression has limits. A move back above 21.6 would be the first real warning that the tape is starting to price stress again. Above 21.6, the door opens to 28.3.

USDJPY fell back to our 160.8 support on Thursday after suspected MOF intervention showed up in the tape during Asia hours. It was then hit again by weak nonfarm payrolls, which added another leg of pressure on the dollar. I have warned before that the probability of intervention rises once USDJPY breaks above 160. That remains the line in the sand. As long as 160.8 holds, the broader uptrend remains intact, with price still above the rising trendline.

Japan needs three things to cap yen depreciation: lower crude prices, lower oil-product prices, and BOJ hikes. Crude has fallen back to pre-war levels, but oil-product prices remain elevated and the BOJ hiking magnitude is still not enough.

A sustained break below 160.8 opens the door to a retest of the rising trendline.

XAGUSD This chart gives a more granular view on the downside path. If the ascending trendline fails, $53-$52 is the next key support, with generational support at $48 as the next line in the sand if that breaks.

XAGUSD Silver bounced from the rising support line near $56 and is trying to stabilize after the June selloff.

06181.HK has one of the ugliest charts in HK equities. Price is still capped by the descending trendline. 6181 needs to clear that line before there is any real upside to chase. That break would likely be accompanied by gold breaking above 4.4K.

I called the SPX top around 7.6K. It reversed sharply, then found a bottom as NDX hit 28.6K, where I called for a rebound.

NDX is showing relative weakness this week, led by semis. Bellwether names, sectors, and indices typically lead the market into corrections, the same way they lead the market into bull runs.

I also called the ES1! bounce from 7.35K to 7.6K. On Thursday, ES came within 6 handles of that target before reversing more than 100 handles lower the same day. 7.61K-7.62K remains the key resistance on the upside, followed by the major ascending resistance line. On the downside, 7.36K remains key support, followed by 7.14K.

EWY

US30Y bounced hard after testing the rising trendline and is now back near 5% resistance. A sustained close above 5% reopens the path toward the prior highs. If 5% rejects again, the risk is another pullback toward the rising trendline.

Z1! As long as FTSE (FTSE 100) stays above the rising trendline, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break back below that line would put the breakout at risk and open the door to a retest of 10,474.

CL1!  Crude has now round-tripped the geopolitical spike. Brent and WTI are both pressing the lower end of the descending channel, so this is where a relief bounce can start, but it is not guaranteed.

The bigger structure is still lower highs unless price can get back above the channel midpoint. The first test sits around 80. Until crude gets back above that level, the bounce is tactical, not a trend change.

BZ1! Crude has now round-tripped the geopolitical spike. Brent and WTI are both pressing the lower end of the descending channel, so this is where a relief bounce can start, but it is not guaranteed.

The bigger structure is still lower highs unless price can get back above the channel midpoint. The first test sits around 80.

DJIRUT and DJI are showing relative strength as we expected from last week.

00700.HKAs mentioned, there was no real strength in this week’s rally. The bounce did nothing to change the technical structure across the key names and indices.

700 remains trapped inside the compressing wedge.

HTI1! and HSI both bounced from our support levels as expected. HSI is up roughly 5% from support, while HTI was up 8% at this week’s peak.

As laid out in the desk note, HK bellwethers were not showing real relief before the bounce, and they are still not confirming the move now. That keeps this tactical, not fundamental.

That said, we are deep in the green. As long as the tape does not start showing stress, there is no need to act. Trail stops and protect the gains.

NIFTY (Nifty 50) bounced from the April lows, but 24.3K is still capping the move. Since the war started, crude has been the macro variable that matters most for India.

As Hormuz traffic improves and the oil risk premium fades, the odds of a sustained push above 24.3K improve. Without that break, upside remains capped, and failure at 24.3K keeps 22.1K-22.0K in play.

NKD1! (Nikkei 225) is pulling back into the rising trendline after a strong June move. The trend is stretched, but not broken yet. The rising trendline is the first line in the sand. As long as it holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below it opens the door to a backtest of 63.8K.

JP30Y (Japan 30-Year Yield) bounced sharply from 3.8% and is back above 4%. A sustained close above 4% opens the door to the prior high around 4.2%. Failure to hold 4% shifts the path back toward 3.8%.