601899 bounced from 25 as expected. That remains key support, coinciding with gold holding 3.9-4.0K. On the upside, 30 is the first resistance, followed by 32. A push into 30-32 should track gold toward 4.4K.
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601899 bounced from 25 as expected. That remains key support, coinciding with gold holding 3.9-4.0K. On the upside, 30 is the first resistance, followed by 32. A push into 30-32 should track gold toward 4.4K.
JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) has reclaimed the late-June range and is back pressing the prior high around 2.8%. A sustained close above 2.8% keeps the upside path open and puts 2.9% in play. If 2.8% rejects again, the first downside level is 2.6%.
MAGS (Magnificent 7) bounced from the 60-63 support.
A sustained move above the trendline would put the mega-cap basket back in control. Failure here keeps the setup vulnerable and puts 63 back in play, followed by 60.
This matters for the broader tape. RUT and DJI are showing relative strength, but MAGS is not confirming yet. If mega-cap leadership fails while semis keep weakening, the index rally has less room for error.
601899 (ZIJIN) bounced from the 25 area as expected.View note
ES1! is heading towards our 7.6 K target. View note It broke out above the key 7520 pivot zone on Tuesday, then tested the 7575 area on Wednesday and again after NFP today.
As the charts below show, 7570 is another key level before the 7610 area. Relative weakness in tech dragged ES back toward the 7520 support zone, but not enough to push the index below it. As long as 7520 holds, we will likely see further upside into the holiday.
A break below 7520 can extend the downside toward 7500, but that should be temporary given the breakout unless ES spends more than 2 hours below 7520.
On the upside, a break above 7570 opens the door to the 7610 resistance area.
There is a rotation going on beneath the surface, which is driving daily sector moves that last one or two sessions. ES remains neutral most of the time, but as long as ES holds above 7520, the overall direction remains to the upside.
XAGUSD bounced from major uptrendline support, while XAUUSD is testing the key 3,900-4,000 area. If oil product prices catch down to crude, yields and the dollar should calm, and we'll likely see a gradual dovish pivot from the Fed. In that scenario, Silver can set up for a bounce toward downtrend resistance in the low 70s, while Gold works toward the 4,400 resistance area.
If product prices stay elevated, as gasoline and diesel still are, the Fed is more likely to stay hawkish. Yields and the dollar should stay firm. That keeps pressure on precious metals and could trigger another drawdown.
For Silver, a break below the major trendline opens the door to the 51-53 support area, followed by generational support around 48. For Gold, a decisive break below 3,900 opens the door to the next major trendline support around 3,700.
Modeled historical lifecycle test.
Modeled historical lifecycle test.
META bounced from the uptrendline support as first outlined at the beginning of the year.
View note
TSLA bounced from the uptrendline support (log) as expected, and price remains inside the compressing wedge.
View note
XAUUSD took another U-turn and tested the lower boundary of the key 3900-4000 support zone during Asia hours.
View note
KOSPI
Tick Tock...
#Global Indices
XAUUSD Gold bounced from our 4K support zone.
KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) has lost the steep rising trendline and is now bouncing back into 8.1K. That is where the bounce has to prove itself. A sustained move back above 8.1K would stabilize the tape. Failure there keeps 7.5K exposed, with 7.1K below if selling resumes.
VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) is starting to wake up. Daily has broken above the downtrend resistance, which is the first warning that volatility suppression is weakening. This is not full confirmation yet, but the chart is no longer cleanly capped.
21.6 remains the level that matters. A sustained break above 21.6 would confirm the move and open the door for volatility to pick up quickly. If equities lose support while VIX holds above the broken downtrend, volatility should expand fast. If VIX slips back below the broken trendline, this becomes another failed spike.
USDJPY
DXY reclaimed 100.2 and is now holding above the uptrendline support around 101.15.
As long as DXY holds the uptrendline support, the path remains higher toward 102, followed by the larger downtrend resistance. A break below 101.15 would be the first warning. A sustained loss of 100.2 would turn the whole move into another fakeout and put 99 back in play. Until then, do not fight the dollar bid.
XAGUSD Silver remains weaker than gold. It already lost the major uptrend support and found support around 55, below that I have a support zone around 51.8-53.1.
Silver can stage a relief bounce from current level as gold hit a critical support zone in the past few days.
For bulls, 51.8-53.1 must hold. A sustained break below this box would confirm another leg lower and open the door to a much deeper reset.
For bears, do not chase into support. Wait for a confirmed break below the box.
The index split is getting more important. NDX is the weak link, but Dow and Russell are not confirming a full risk-off break yet. That means this is still rotation first, breakdown second. NDX is the problem. The Nasdaq already had the vertical AI leg, and now it is chopping violently below the highs. 28.6K is the key support. If that level holds, bulls can still argue this is consolidation after an extreme run. If 28.6K breaks, the failed-breakout risk rises fast and the next major support is 26.1K. Do not ignore the volume: this is where distribution starts showing up before the trend actually breaks.
TSLA fits the same leadership problem. On log scale, bulls still have one argument: price is trying to defend the rising trendline near 370. But on normal scale, the broader structure is capped by lower highs. 383 is the key reclaim. Until TSLA gets back above 383 and holds, every bounce is just a backtest. Lose the rising support, and the next downside path opens toward 340, then 320.
ES1! daily is showing 7350 as the key support. This is the level bulls need to defend.
If 7350 gets busted, there is an air pocket all the way down to the 7150 area
SPX rejected exactly where it had to reject: the upper trendline near 7.6K. That keeps the double-top risk alive. This was not a clean continuation breakout; it was a failed attempt into resistance, followed by heavier downside volume and another test of support.
For SPX, 7.27K is the line in the sand. As long as that holds, bulls can still argue this is consolidation below resistance. Lose 7.27K, and the next support is 7.11K. A clean break of 7.11K would confirm the failed breakout and open the door to a deeper unwind.
ES is showing the same setup. Futures are holding 7.36K for now, with 7.14K as the deeper support. A reclaim back toward 7.6K can happen, because distribution phases usually see volatility expand first, with price repeatedly tapping both ends of the range before final resolution. The tape is already warning: AI concerns, Apple price hikes, and semis selling off are hitting the exact leadership group that carried the index. Oil relief helps the macro backdrop, but it is not enough if the AI bid starts leaking.
This is a wait-for-confirmation spot. If 7.27K holds, bulls regain control. Below 7.27K on SPX / 7.36K on ES, the path of least resistance turns lower.