Trading Desk

ES1! daily is showing 7350 as the key support. This is the level bulls need to defend.

If 7350 gets busted, there is an air pocket all the way down to the 7150 area

SPX rejected exactly where it had to reject: the upper trendline near 7.6K. That keeps the double-top risk alive. This was not a clean continuation breakout; it was a failed attempt into resistance, followed by heavier downside volume and another test of support.

For SPX, 7.27K is the line in the sand. As long as that holds, bulls can still argue this is consolidation below resistance. Lose 7.27K, and the next support is 7.11K. A clean break of 7.11K would confirm the failed breakout and open the door to a deeper unwind.

ES is showing the same setup. Futures are holding 7.36K for now, with 7.14K as the deeper support. A reclaim back toward 7.6K can happen, because distribution phases usually see volatility expand first, with price repeatedly tapping both ends of the range before final resolution. The tape is already warning: AI concerns, Apple price hikes, and semis selling off are hitting the exact leadership group that carried the index. Oil relief helps the macro backdrop, but it is not enough if the AI bid starts leaking.

This is a wait-for-confirmation spot. If 7.27K holds, bulls regain control. Below 7.27K on SPX / 7.36K on ES, the path of least resistance turns lower.

Z1! (FTSE 100) is pinned around 10.47K, where horizontal resistance, the old downtrend, and the rising support structure are all converging. A sustained close above 10.47K puts bulls back in control. A failure here, especially with a break back below the rising support, turns this into another failed breakout and opens the door lower.

AAPLThe single-name charts are saying the same thing. GOOGL lost 343.7, turning prior support into resistance. MSFT is below 395, with 342 as the final defense. META is sitting on meaningful support around 540; if that breaks, the rotation out of mega-cap tech broadens. AMZN failed near the top of its channel, lost the midline, and is now sliding toward lower-channel support. AAPL rejected the upper channel and is now falling hard on volume after the price-hike news.

INTCAMD and INTC are the same trade wearing a different label. The market is no longer paying for steady chip demand; it is paying for scarcity, AI capacity, and national-security optionality. That can keep squeezing higher longer than bears want, but the chart is already in blowoff territory. Once a monthly candle starts failing after this kind of extension, the downside will not be orderly.

So the setup is simple: do not short just because it looks insane, but absolutely do not chase. In this phase, rallies can still go vertical, then reverse violently. The first warning is not a bad headline; it is a failed high, a lower monthly close, and price losing the parabolic slope. Until then, this is still distribution inside a bubble. Volatility expands first, then trend breaks.

00700.HKHK internet weakness rhymes with the MAG7 AI-capex problem, but it is not the same trade. In the U.S., the question is whether cash-rich hyperscalers can turn massive AI spend into revenue and FCF. In China internet, the setup is harsher: core growth is weak, margins are under pressure, geopolitics is bad, and AI capex risks becoming another cash drain with no clear monetization path.

That is why the HK/China tape is not getting paid for the global AI bid. Alibaba and Baidu carry the clearest AI monetization risk. Tencent remains the highest-quality name in the group, but it is not immune. Meituan and JD are more about weak consumption, delivery expansion, and subsidy pressure than AI.

Do not treat every China internet bounce as AI catch-up. The market is saying the problem is structural. That said, given where HTI and HSI are sitting technically, a bounce from current levels is probable. But this is a tactical bounce setup, not a structural repair. The major names still have more room to dip before reaching strong support.

700 continues to bleed lower and is now approaching the major rising trendline support around 400. Bulls need that area to hold. A clean break below would confirm real structural damage and put the long-term uptrend at risk. Until 700 reclaims lost momentum, this remains a defensive chart.

GOOGLThe single-name charts are saying the same thing. GOOGL lost 343.7, turning prior support into resistance. MSFT is below 395, with 342 as the final defense. META is sitting on meaningful support around 540; if that breaks, the rotation out of mega-cap tech broadens. AMZN failed near the top of its channel, lost the midline, and is now sliding toward lower-channel support. AAPL rejected the upper channel and is now falling hard on volume after the price-hike news.

AMZNThe single-name charts are saying the same thing. GOOGL lost 343.7, turning prior support into resistance. MSFT is below 395, with 342 as the final defense. META is sitting on meaningful support around 540; if that breaks, the rotation out of mega-cap tech broadens. AMZN failed near the top of its channel, lost the midline, and is now sliding toward lower-channel support. AAPL rejected the upper channel and is now falling hard on volume after the price-hike news.

FUTU lost 131 and remains below it. The bounce from the long-term trendline does not repair the structure yet. Bulls need to reclaim 131 before this becomes anything more than a damaged rebound. Failure to reclaim keeps the downside pressure alive.

MUThis is not just NVDA anymore. The bubble has spread into the component layer. AMD, INTC, MU, and SNDK are all showing the same message: vertical price action, monthly RSI stretched, and bands blowing open. That is not a normal uptrend. That is a late-cycle pricing panic.

The memory names are the cleanest tell. MU and SNDK went parabolic because the market is now pricing the AI memory shortage as if it has no ceiling. Apple and Microsoft price hikes confirm the pass-through: component inflation is no longer theory, it is hitting end-products. That supports the revenue story for memory suppliers in the short run, but it also creates the demand-destruction risk that usually ends these cycles.

DJIDow is holding the breakout. 51.6K is the line in the sand. As long as DJI holds above that level, the old-economy/value side of the market is still absorbing pressure from tech. A break below 51.6K would open the door back to 50.2K, but until that happens, Dow is not the problem.

METAThe single-name charts are saying the same thing. GOOGL lost 343.7, turning prior support into resistance. MSFT is below 395, with 342 as the final defense. META is sitting on meaningful support around 540; if that breaks, the rotation out of mega-cap tech broadens. AMZN failed near the top of its channel, lost the midline, and is now sliding toward lower-channel support. AAPL rejected the upper channel and is now falling hard on volume after the price-hike news.

BABA lost 120 and the breakdown accelerated. That level is now resistance. Unless BABA reclaims 120 quickly, the chart stays broken and the next real support is the long-term rising trendline below. Do not call this cheap just because it has fallen. The tape is not confirming.

SNDKThis is not just NVDA anymore. The bubble has spread into the component layer. AMD, INTC, MU, and SNDK are all showing the same message: vertical price action, monthly RSI stretched, and bands blowing open. That is not a normal uptrend. That is a late-cycle pricing panic.

The memory names are the cleanest tell. MU and SNDK went parabolic because the market is now pricing the AI memory shortage as if it has no ceiling. Apple and Microsoft price hikes confirm the pass-through: component inflation is no longer theory, it is hitting end-products. That supports the revenue story for memory suppliers in the short run, but it also creates the demand-destruction risk that usually ends these cycles.

RUT is the cleanest breadth signal. Small caps reclaimed 2.8K and are now pushing toward 3K. That is not bearish breadth. As long as RUT holds above 2.8K, the market can still rotate away from crowded AI and into the broader tape. A break below 2.8K would weaken that story, and below 2.72K the breakout starts to fail.

XOP is even weaker. Energy equities broke 161.6, then lost 156. That confirms the market is pricing real oil relief and less durable Hormuz risk. A bounce back into 156 can happen, but unless XOP reclaims 156 first and 161.6 after that, the breakdown stays valid. The problem for energy bulls is simple: crude has fallen hard, but product prices and geopolitical risk have not fully normalized. That leaves the equity trade stuck between lower spot oil and still-fragile macro.

US02Y Oil coming off took some pressure out of the long end, but the front end has not rolled over. US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) reclaimed 4%, backtested it, and is still holding the short-term rising trendline. That keeps Fed hike alive. 4% is the line in the sand. As long as US02Y holds above it, the market is not pricing a dovish pivot. A push back through 4.2% opens the door to another squeeze in yields and another hit to long-duration risk. Lose 4%, and the next real support is 3.8%.

BZ1! Oil did what the tape warned it could do. Brent and WTI broke below 80 and flushed into the next support zone in the low 70s. That break says the market is now pricing normalization through Hormuz.

BZ (Brent futures) is now sitting right on the last support that matters. For bulls, this is the low-risk entry zone. The downside is clearly defined: if 71-73 fails, the bearish structure accelerates and the market starts pricing full normalization.

If 71-73 holds, oil should attempt a relief bounce.

HG1! As long as 6.11 holds, copper can attempt another push toward the upper channel. A sustained break below 6.11 would turn this into a failed breakout and open the door to a deeper pullback toward the channel midline. For bulls, wait for a sustained close above 6.11 or a confirmed breakout above the upper channel.

BTC1!

#BTC tagged the 60K line in the sand. That remains a low-risk spot for bulls because the downside is clearly defined, but the structure is not repaired yet. BTC is still trading below the broken rising channel, so every bounce remains a damaged rebound unless it can reclaim lost structure.
For bears, do not front-run while 60K is still holding. Wait for a confirmed breakdown. A sustained break below 60K opens the door to 55.8K, and below that is where the cascade starts. That is where obliteration begins.

Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).

601899A bounce is very likely here. If 25 fails, the downside opens again.

ES1! daily is showing 7350 as the key support. This is the level bulls need to defend.
If 7350 gets busted, there is an air pocket all the way down to the 7150 area.

TSLA daily is dangerously flirting with wedge support on the log chart. In fact, it opened right around that support line this morning and unsurprisingly it produced a bounce.

The blue line is SOX during the Dot-com bubble. Look familiar?
I don't think I need to repeat the similarities. We have laid them out enough. The point now is simple: I expect volatility to pick up from here as SOX enters the distribution phase.
That means more frequent vertical rallies, sharper drawdowns, and wider ranges before the real collapse begins. SOX can still grind higher, and it can still fake strength for longer than bears want. That does not change the bigger setup. Once a bubble starts unwinding, volatility expands first, then trend breaks. Do not mistake violent bounces for strength.

XAUUSD bounced from our 4K support zone. That is the first line in the sand and a logical spot for a relief bounce. Momentum is oversold, not exhausted. Monthly RSI still has room lower, and the monthly chart has not reached real capitulation.
If 4K holds short term, gold still has to reclaim 4.4K before the structure improves. Until that happens, this is a bounce into resistance, not a confirmed reversal.
If 4K fails, the next structural support sits around 3.6K, followed by 3.45K. That is the real battlefield.
Macro is not helping gold. Inflation has reignited, the Fed remains hawkish, and ECB and BoJ have turned more restrictive again. The front end is already confirming the risk: US02Y pushed to its highest level since early 2025.
That has put a bid under the dollar, and the dollar is capping gold's upside. Before the next major leg higher, gold must decouple from the dollar and yields. The tape will show us when that regime shift begins.