Trading Desk

SOX  The blue line is SOX (Semiconductor Index) during the Dot-com bubble. Look familiar?

I don't think I need to repeat the similarities. We have laid them out enough. The point now is simple: I expect volatility to pick up from here as SOX enters the distribution phase.

That means more frequent vertical rallies, sharper drawdowns, and wider ranges before the real collapse begins. SOX can still grind higher, and it can still fake strength for longer than bears want. That does not change the bigger setup.

Once a bubble starts unwinding, volatility expands first, then trend breaks. Do not mistake violent bounces for strength.

SOX  The blue line is SOX (Semiconductor Index) during the Dot-com bubble.

HSI broke down hard after failing to reclaim 25.25K. That level has turned from support into resistance, and the move has now flushed straight into the 22.55K support zone. This is a critical support level and I expect a bounce from here. If 22.55K fails, the breakdown opens another leg lower. Bulls need a sharp defense here.

JP30Y (Japan 30-Year Yield) pulled back from 4.2% but are still holding 3.7%-3.8%. As long as that range holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. 4% is the first test, followed by 4.2%. A sustained break below 3.7% shifts the path toward 3.5%.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) lost the ascending trendline and remains capped below 79.15. A sustained move above 79.15 opens the door to 92.4. Failure there keeps the path lower toward the recent lows.
A stronger dollar, hawkish Fed risk, and higher real yields continue to pressure gold.

JP10Y Japan rates are still in a structural repricing, but the first cooling phase has started. JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) ripped almost one-way into 2.8%, then failed to extend and is now chopping lower around 2.6-2.7%. That is a pause, not a confirmed reversal. 2.5% is the line in the sand. As long as JP10Y holds above 2.5%, the BOJ normalization trade is still alive and another push toward 2.8-2.9% stays on the table. Lose 2.5%, and the move turns into a deeper mean-reversion setup toward 2.3%.

PLTR (Palantir) has strong support at 101-105. For bears, do not chase downside here as the stock is oversold. The better short is either a failed backtest of 128 or a confirmed break below 101.

US10Y rejected exactly where it had to reject: the major downtrend resistance around 4.6%. That is not a breakout. That is a failed attempt. The 10Y is still trapped inside a long compression pattern, with lower highs from 2025 and higher lows from the March washout. The next support zone is around 4.05-4.1%. If that holds, 10s stay range-bound and can coil again. If it breaks, the market is saying growth/oil relief is starting to overpower the inflation story.

USDJPY The BOJ hike has not changed the tape. Rate differentials are still too wide and the Fed is not giving the market a dovish turn. Unless MOF intervenes again, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Unilateral intervention rarely succeeds, but coordinated intervention can have a more sustained effect. Without Washington on board, MOF can slow the move, as we saw in May, but it is unlikely to reverse the trend when fundamentals are still pointing the other way.

These are MSTR preferreds. STRC is variable-rate monthly payer. STRF is the fixed 10% cumulative cash preferred. STRD is the fixed 10% non-cumulative preferred, meaning skipped dividends do not accrue. STRK is the fixed 8% cumulative preferred with a conversion option into MSTR common.
If the board does not declare the dividend, holders do not have bondholder protection.
STRC, the latest and most promoted product, has already raised its dividend from 9% at launch to 11.5%. It has also changed its payout schedule from monthly to semi-monthly. This is classic Ponzi behavior: raise the promised payout, squeeze the last penny from investors, and keep the machine alive.

Strategy holds roughly 847K B****, about 4% of total supply, with an average cost around $75.7K. That stack is deeply underwater. I warned months ago about the bankruptcy risk in MSTR's model. The downward spiral may have already started.
With the U.S. passing key c**** regulations in 2025, the B*** narrative is coming to an end. A large part of the hype over the past decade was anchored on the hope that c**** would be regulated and then broadly adopted. As that process matures, the option value in the story compresses.
The real use case remains narrow and still largely tied to criminal activity. Even there, stable**** are more useful than B****. C*** does not need a trillion-dollar market cap to keep that market liquid. 100 billions would do.
Current c*** market cap is around $2T. Excluding stable****, it is still roughly $1.8T. If the real end-market is $100B, we are looking at more than 90% downside.

From a technical standpoint, $60K remains a good entry for bulls, as the downside is still very limited. For bears, wait for a confirmed breakdown. A decisive break below 60K opens the door to 55K, followed by a cascade of selling all the way down to 30-40K. Once the waterfall begins, it will be brutal and quick.

Due to platform rules and restrictions, I only post regular  B*** updates on X. See the thread here https://www.meridianresearch.app/notes/3b10d86d-5d44-4635-8523-ce85de5d26edView note.

NVDA (Nvidia) is still the final missing piece. It reclaimed 208 after the prior breakdown and is now trying to hold that level from above. That makes 208 the line in the sand.

As long as NVDA holds 208, bears do not have a confirmed signal. A failure back below 208 would be much more important than a normal pullback, because it would suggest the AI trade is starting to lose its leader. Below 208, 196 comes back into play quickly.

USDJPY cleared 160.86 and is now trying to turn that level into support. That makes 160.86 the line in the sand.

BOJ hiked this week, but the Fed is still at 3.50%-3.75%, leaving a 250-275 bps policy-rate gap, and the Fed is turning increasingly hawkish. Unless Japan hikes more aggressively, the path of least resistance remains higher.

DXY broke above the 100.2 resistance I flagged months ago and is now pressing into the next resistance zone around 101. This is the level that matters now.

As long as the dollar holds above 100.2, the breakout remains valid. A sustained break above 101 would open the door to broader repricing across assets, especially with yields still driving recent dollar strength.

Bulls need to defend 100.2 on any backtest. A break back below would turn this into another fakeout, but for now the dollar has reclaimed the level it needed.

XAGUSD

XAGUSD Silver remains weaker than gold. It broke the major trendline support and has failed to reclaim it.

The weekly chart is the problem. What used to be support is now resistance.

Unless silver gets back above that trendline quickly, the breakdown remains valid and the tape points lower.

NDX remains the stronger tape. As long as 28.6K holds, bulls still have control. But if NDX fails to make a new high while SPX is pressing into resistance, that would be the first warning that the AI-led bid is losing force.

The long end is less clean. US10Y remains below the multi-year downtrend resistance after the recent fakeout, while US30Y failed again around 5% and is now testing uptrend support. This is not a clean breakout yet, but it is also not a clean rejection unless those trend supports break decisively.

The setup remains binary. If 10Y reclaims the downtrend resistance and 30Y gets back above 5%, the bond market releases pressure again and long-duration equities are back in trouble. If 30Y breaks the uptrend and 10Y keeps failing below resistance, the immediate rate-pressure trade cools off. For now, the front end is hawkish, the long end is still trapped, and the next break decides the trade.