Trading Desk

The long end is less clean. US10Y remains below the multi-year downtrend resistance after the recent fakeout, while US30Y failed again around 5% and is now testing uptrend support. This is not a clean breakout yet, but it is also not a clean rejection unless those trend supports break decisively.

The setup remains binary. If 10Y reclaims the downtrend resistance and 30Y gets back above 5%, the bond market releases pressure again and long-duration equities are back in trouble. If 30Y breaks the uptrend and 10Y keeps failing below resistance, the immediate rate-pressure trade cools off. For now, the front end is hawkish, the long end is still trapped, and the next break decides the trade.

Z1! (FTSE 100) failed around 10.47K again and slipped back below the compression zone.

Bulls need to reclaim 10.47K and hold above the downtrend line. If it fails and loses the rising support, the structure turns vulnerable again and opens the door to another leg lower.

CL1!  WTI technicals are weaker than BZ's and it needs more heavy lifting to reclaim the lost structure.

US02Y The front end is the warning. US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) backtested 4% from above and is pushing higher, even as the market prices a higher probability of a peace deal. Next major resistance sits around 4.4%. As long as 4% holds, the short end is telling us the Fed is not giving the market the dovish turn it wants.

BZ1! Oil headed toward the 80s, as anticipated last week. Brent is now trading around the final support near 80 as the market prices a higher probability of a US-Iran peace deal.

We have also seen a rebound in Hormuz traffic this week, with reports showing around 20 ships per day passing through versus roughly 6 per day on average since the war began.

This is still just an MoU, and Iran has not released the full details. Everything in this MoU is expected to be temporary and fragile, given the history. With Brent tagging the final key support, this is a low-risk entry with very limited downside for those who believe this peace deal is not durable.

For bears, oil is oversold. Wait for confirmation below 80 before adding shorts. A sustained break below 80 would be the market's signal that real normalization is coming.

SPX and NDX both rebounded hard from the support levels we identified two weeks ago. SPX defended 7270, while NDX held 28.6K. That keeps the path of least resistance to the upside for now.

For SPX, the next key area is the prior trendline resistance near 7.6K. A push into that zone would look more like a potential double top than the start of a fresh, healthy leg higher. If SPX fails there, I expect the next down leg to begin and take us back toward 7.27K, then 7.1K.

BABA lost 120 and has continued lower. That level is now the key reclaim. Until BABA gets back above 120, the breakdown stays valid and the chart remains under pressure. A sustained reclaim of 120 would neutralize the immediate damage, but 146.4 is still the real level that matters for a larger repair.

TSLA bounced from 382 again, so bulls defended the level that mattered. That keeps the chart alive, but the stock is still trapped below downtrend resistance.

382 is the line in the sand. As long as TSLA holds above it, bulls can keep pressing for another test of the downtrend line.

A clean break below 382 would invalidate the bounce and open the door back toward the April low. Until TSLA clears the downtrend resistance, this is still a range trade, not a clean breakout.

XOPFor bulls, XOP must reclaim 156 first, then 161.6. Until that happens, the breakdown stays valid. If XOP keeps failing below 156, the tape remains aligned with the oil-normalization / peace-deal path. A reclaim of 161.6 while crude holds 80 would be the first sign the market is rejecting the bearish energy read.

META is still trading below the broken trendline. The bounce has not repaired the structure. It looks like a lower-high attempt unless bulls can reclaim that line with authority.

For bulls, the first job is to get back above the broken trendline. Until then, rallies should be treated as backtests, not confirmation.

If META fails here, the next downside risk is a retest of the green rising support. A clean break there would turn this from a damaged chart into a real breakdown.

AMZN lost the mid-channel and is now trying to stabilize below it. That is not a clean bullish structure. It looks more like a failed reclaim unless price quickly gets back above the dashed line.

For bulls, the job is simple: reclaim the mid-channel and hold it. Until that happens, AMZN remains vulnerable to another leg lower toward the lower channel.

This is another warning from the old mega-cap leadership. Semis are still getting the AI bid, but AMZN is not confirming with the same force. If it fails here, the broader MAGS structure gets weaker.

RUT is holding above 2795 and remains one of the cleaner signs that the rally has broadened beyond mega-cap tech. As long as 2795 holds, bulls keep control and the path stays higher. A break below 2795 would weaken the structure and open the door back to 2718. 

For now, RUT and DJI are not confirming an immediate breakdown. They are telling us breadth has improved enough to support the index rebound. If these two start failing support while SPX is pressing into 7.6K resistance, that would be the warning that the rally is running out of participation.

AAPL remains one of the cleaner non-AI mega-cap charts. It sold off from the upper channel, bounced from the mid-channel, and is now trying to stabilize below the prior high.

For bulls, the mid-channel needs to hold. As long as AAPL stays above it, the structure is damaged but not broken. A reclaim of the upper channel area would put the upside back in play.

If AAPL loses the mid-channel, the next move likely goes toward the lower channel. That would be a much bigger problem for the broader tape, because Apple has been one of the few mega-cap names not fully tied to the data-center frenzy.

GOOGL bounced from our 343 support, as expected, and is now trying to stabilize above it. That keeps the structure alive, but it is not leadership yet.

For bulls, 343 is the line in the sand. As long as GOOGL holds above 343, the bounce can continue and the stock can work back toward the recent highs.

A clean break below 343 would invalidate the bounce and turn this into another failed support hold. That would be a bad signal for the broader MAGS basket, especially while semis continue to carry the AI tape.

DJI also defended the 50.2K breakout zone and bounced. That keeps the broader equity tape supported, but the chart is now pushing back toward the prior high, so a potential double-top risk is still there. Bulls need follow-through above the recent high to keep the breakout clean.

NIFTY India has been stuck for a reason. No real AI beta, expensive valuation, foreign money rotating elsewhere, and RBI still constrained by oil, rupee weakness, and inflation risk. The market is not getting the liquidity tailwind it needs.

NIFTY (Nifty 50) needs a sustained above 24.34K for further upside. As long as 22K holds, downside is contained.

NKD1! (Nikkei 225) held the 63.8K support I flagged and ripped higher.

As long as the rising trendline holds, bulls remain in control and the path of least resistance stays higher.

The macro setup still favors Japan equities for now. BOJ hiked, but USDJPY still broke above 160, which tells us the rate gap remains too wide and yen weakness is still supporting the tape. A break below the rising trendline would be the first warning that the move is losing force.

HTI1! lost the 4.74K support I flagged and remains below the descending trendline. A sustained move back above 4.74K opens the door to 5.14K. Failure to reclaim it keeps 4.2K in play.

The global AI bid remains concentrated elsewhere. China internet names are still not being rewarded for the same AI narrative, and the price action reflects that.

HSI lost 25.25K, the floor of the prior range, and the bounce from below failed right at that level. That is a failed backtest.

Until HSI reclaims 25.25K, the breakdown stays valid and the path of least resistance remains lower. The China/HK tape is still not getting paid for the global AI bid. This is old China beta, not leadership.

A sustained close above 25.25K would put HSI back inside the range. Failure there keeps pressure to the downside.

601899 (Zijin Mining Group) broke below the major rising trendline and is now backtesting it from below. That keeps the structure bearish unless it can reclaim both the trendline and horizontal resistance around 32.4 quickly.

A failure here would confirm the backtest and open the door to another leg lower. Bulls need to reclaim the trendline first, then 32.4, before the chart starts to repair.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) moved back above 79 after the breakdown but was rejected again at 92.4. 79 remains the line in the sand. As long as it holds, GDX can make another run at 92.4. A sustained break back below 79 puts the recent lows back in play.

MSFT If MSFT (Microsoft) stays below 395, the path opens back toward 342.

MAGS (Magnificent 7) needs to hold above 63. Below 63, the next downside level is 60.

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