XAUUSD Gold failed to reclaim the key 4.4K level and was rejected below the broken structure.
The tape remains weak.
On the weekly chart, gold is still sitting above the major 4.0K-3.9K support zone, but the daily structure is weak.
Bulls need to reclaim 4.4K.
A clean break below 4.0K opens the door to 3.9K.
If 3.9K fails, the next major support sits much lower around 3.43K.
For now, I would not chase upside unless gold reclaims the broken 4.4K level.
SPX is getting close to the resistance line that triggered the recent correction, and the underlying conditions look very similar to the setup that led to that move. We have FOMC tomorrow and Triple Witching on Friday, so the market will likely stay choppy with a slight upside bias for the rest of the week. Once the gamma is removed from the market, we should see a much larger move next week.
VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) filled the gap around 23 before reversing sharply lower. The immediate upside signal has been rejected for now.
NVDA (Nvidia) is now trading below the key 208 level. If it fails to reclaim this level while the rest of the semi stocks continue to rally like there is no tomorrow, it would mark the beginning of the end.
USDJPY As mentioned, unless we see the Strait return to normal and/or a BOJ rate hike, USDJPY should break above 160. Yen has weakened back above 160 and is now approaching the recent high that triggered MOF intervention in late April.
The 160 area is the danger zone. The recent pullback in oil lowers one source of pressure on yen weakness, but rate differentials remain wide and could widen further. BOJ normalization is already largely priced in, so unless Japan delivers a real hawkish surprise, intervention alone is more likely to smooth volatility than reverse the trend.
USDJPY has seen intervention-driven pullbacks before, but the broader trend remained tied to rate differentials, dollar strength, and positioning. This setup is different from 2024, when BOJ hikes, MOF intervention, weak U.S. data, and broad dollar weakness all hit at once.
Next week's FOMC is critical. If the Fed hikes while the BOJ holds, USDJPY should face further upside pressure. On the other hand, a BOJ hike or another aggressive MOF intervention could quickly suppress the pair.
FUTUlost the key 131 support and the structure remains damaged. The bounce from lower support means little unless it can reclaim 131.
00700.HKTencent is still trying to stabilize, but the structure has not repaired. Bulls need follow-through from here; otherwise, this remains a rebound inside a broader corrective move.
01810.HKXiaomi remains weak and trapped below downtrend resistance. Bulls first need to reclaim that downtrend line. If they manage to do so, the next stop is 37. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.
XOP remains trapped below downtrend resistance and is now sitting right on short-term horizontal support around 161.6. Bulls need this level to hold and need a quick reclaim of the broken uptrend to repair the structure.
If 161.6 fails, the next support sits around 156. A clean break below 156 would confirm a deeper breakdown in energy equities, and would likely be accompanied by oil breaking below 80 and a US-Iran peace deal.
TSLA bounced from 382. Bulls need this level to hold; a clean break below would open the door to a test of the April low.
FUTU lost the key 131 support and the structure remains damaged. The bounce from lower support means little unless it can reclaim 131.
GOOGL bounced from our 343 support. Bulls need this level to hold to keep the rebound alive. A clean break below 343 would put the structure back at risk.
BABA lost the trendline support and is now trading below the key 120 level. It must reclaim 120 quickly, otherwise the breakdown remains valid and more downside should follow.
DXY The dollar faced resistance at 100.2, as expected. Yields remain the main driver of recent dollar movement, and next week's FOMC is critical as the market gets the first official encounter between the new Fed chair and inflation.
After retracing from the trendline resistance we identified two weeks ago, SPX weakened further this week and found support around 7270, which lines up with NDX support at 28.6K, as expected. We saw a strong rebound from there. There is resistance around Friday’s high. If that gets taken out, I expect SPX to test 7.52K next week. A sustained breakout above that level opens the door to a potential double top around 7.65K, where I expect the next down leg to begin and take us toward 7.11K.
This rebound looks more like risk-sentiment recovery and short-covering than a real improvement in fundamentals. AI capex is still holding the tape together, but valuations and positioning remain stretched. With FOMC and Triple Witching ahead, volatility risk stays high. If inflation or rate expectations take back control, the next leg lower should start quickly.
NDX rebounded from 28.6K support, as expected. As long as that level holds, the immediate downside is contained. A break below would reopen the path toward the next leg lower.
US30Y We have seen repeated attempts and fakeouts around key resistance, and these levels are being attacked and defended for one simple reason: they matter for the bond market and for every leveraged asset sitting on top of it.
A sustained breakout in US30Y (U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) would release destructive force across highly leveraged equities.
CL1! (WTI crude futures) lost the second triangle support this week.
It must reclaim that level in the next few sessions; otherwise, it is likely heading toward 80.
BZ1! (Brent futures) is sitting right on support. Bulls need this level to hold and need an impulsive move higher next week to have any hope of recapturing the bullish structure lost two weeks ago.
If this support fails, it opens the door to the final bull defense at 80. Below 80, the market would be signaling real progress toward a US-Iran peace deal and a return to normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
