CL1! Oil is edging higher as no progress is being made on a peace deal and Strait volume remains low.
A breach below 98-100 opens the door to a test of the 81 level, though I think the odds of seeing this soon are very low, given that Iran will give up neither its nuclear program nor its control of the Strait.
A breach above the 115-117 area opens the door to 140.
BZ1! SpotBrent (Brent crude spot) tested its previous high around 120.
BZ (Brent futures) is back above 100 and is heading toward the recent high around 118, after which comes 140. A break below 100 opens the door to a retest of 86.
SOXX We shorted SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) at the top on Monday, only to be trailed out on Wednesday. Semi momentum remains exceptionally strong, as Friday marked a new ATH.
As we have entered a new month, the Bollinger Bands are flashing less worrisome signs. Still, gravity should pull it back to the uptrendline support for a retest.
Set SL @ 7285
ES1!
I've reduced exposure and removed stops to avoid overnight choppiness.
ES1!
AMZN·Bullish@9.1 crashed initially to $165 on bad guidance but released good numbers for the past quarter, so the stock recovered but will likely crash in coming days
AAPL and SNDK release earnings in 20 minutes. Reduce exposure if you're not prepared for your stop to be filled with massive slippage.
Typo, short limit at 7245 with SL at 7255.
ES1!
I'm placing ES1! short at 7145 with SL at 7155
Spot Brent made a new high, as we expected. As I wrote in the previous Tactical Positioning and desk note, a peace deal is difficult to reach, and it is in Iran's best interest to keep oil prices high. The higher the oil price, the more leverage it has at the negotiation table. We had another verbal intervention in USDJPY from Japan officials during the Asia session. As I noted months ago, 160 is the psychological ceiling for the BOJ and MOF. Oil was sold in sync, perhaps because these two trades overlap: a trader who is long USDJPY is likely also holding oil longs. Note that Spot Brent reversed from its previous high, while NQ1! and NVDA held key support. For bulls, NVDA = 208 remains a setup with asymmetric risk-reward. For bears, both NQ and NVDA must break below the support levels shown in the chart to see a sustained pullback. Otherwise, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
This is the third consecutive day where cumulative TICK has been declining while SPX has not followed in the same direction or magnitude. But NVDA and NQ1! are still hanging on to key support for dear life. As I mentioned before today's market open, NVDA must break 208 for the market to see more downside.
Cumulative TICK has been declining while SPX has been rising over the past two days. Something ominous is brewing.
If we did indeed nail the SOXX top, it is likely targeting the trendline, which sits around 415. Note that NVDA's tape has proven resilient. The stock has tested its previous ATH from above multiple times over the past two days. As mentioned in the last Tactical Positioning, this is a textbook bull entry setup: a breakout of key resistance, followed by an entry on the retest of previous resistance, now turned support. For bears, NVDA must break below 208 in the next few sessions; otherwise, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. If NVDA holds above 208 and pushes higher, it should drag SOXX higher with it. My NVDA shorts were stopped out at breakeven, and we modified the SOXX stop from breakeven to a trailing stop. Either way, this is another profitable trade.
ES1! 1h
The natural target for this pullback sits around 7080-7100.
I've moved my SL to breakeven. As I mentioned in Tactical Positioning, I think SPX will start to pull back around 7,200. There may be one final push higher, where I'll re-enter shorts if my stops are triggered.
NVDA
SOXX
SLs are set a few percentage points above today's high.
NVDA
SOXX
I'll scale into this position if retail degenerates dare to push SOXX higher
I shorted NVDA and SOXX, and sold OTM call spreads expiring in 5–15 trading days.
BTC1! It remains within the channel. As long as the upper boundary holds, the structure remains inherently bearish.
BTC breaks out
