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CL1! (WTI crude futures) posted a clean break on Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night. The market is finally growing tired of his lies.
A clean break above the 116-117 level should open the door to a test of the previous ATH around 140, after which comes 180-200.
This is most likely to happen if the war drags on for another month or two, as even the major oil reserve countries start running out of reserves. On the downside, a break below 100 could signal a change in direction.
BZ1! Brent is consolidating in the box. A break above signals a test of recent highs, while a break below signals more downside.
US02Y For US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield), 3.8% and 3.6% are the key support levels to watch in the short term, while 4% acts as resistance. Should yields start to grind higher from the current level, a retest of the recent high around 4% is very much in play.
HG1! Copper is tangling around the key 5.55 level. This could be a backtest from below, and I'd expect a continuation of the selloff if price starts to reverse from this level.
If it manages to hold above this level and starts to climb higher, it would turn the bearish structure bullish.
NIFTY (Nifty 50) tested my 22K support, just as I expected weeks ago. I expect a bounce from here. A break below this level opens the door to a test of 20K.
MAGSWe warned about the selloff back in January when it was trading around 65. It has followed our script over the past few months.
TSLA backtested 383 and was rejected at that level.
GOOGL backtested from below. If price starts to break down from here, we’ll likely see a new low in the coming weeks.
AMZN bounced off lower channel support.
META bounced off major support.
DJIDow bounced precisely from our 45K support level and led this week’s rally.
SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) has reclaimed the major trendline, but it must hold above it for a few days to see further upside.
XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) is backtesting from below.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) reclaimed 92, but it needs to stay above it for a few more days to confirm that the trend has reversed. If the war drags on, it would be bearish for gold in the ST, and therefore for GDX as well.
BTC1!
Market Update
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Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
XAUUSD After a capitulation around 4.1K, gold rebounded sharply, only to find resistance at the trendline resistance around 4.8K.
For gold to rip higher, it must climb above 4.8K, and even more favorably, above the dotted trendline resistance.
ES1! surged above 6.6K as we expected. I have closed my ST longs and will be looking for entries to open shorts. Despite the rosy tape, there has been no real progress on a ceasefire deal, and we are seeing an increase in the number of troops deployed for a potential ground invasion. Oil prices are not concurring with the equity rally at all. Note that the market is entirely news-driven. There may be tape bombs and spikes, but they will likely get sold. Have stops in place before you enter a trade. Risk management is paramount in this environment.
Despite heavy selling pressure in SPX and NDX during RTH yesterday, DJI held and bounced from our support. NVDA broke below the key 167 level yesterday, but we still need a weekly close for confirmation. Key levels like this usually leave a fakeout or two before truly breaking down. I noted at Friday's close when ES1! was trading at 6.4K that we might have seen a ST low, and ES is now almost 100 handles up from that low. Indices are rallying alongside oil. This may break the negative correlation between oil and equities in the ST. In the ST, above ES = 6.5K, we have strong resistance around 6.52K, after which we could see ES surge above 6.6K. I remain structurally bearish unless the indices reclaim the key levels I noted over the weekend. Bear market rallies are forceful, so stay vigilant and have stops in place.
XAUUSD After breaching below the trendline support around 4.7-4.75K, gold entered freefall and found a bottom at 4.1K, 100 handles above the major trendline support.
Gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis, but not during one.
This played out very well for us, as we were able to both catch the rally all the way to the very top and short at the very top.
I also warned once again about an imminent selloff when gold rallied back to 5.4K.
Note that 4K is very, very important for gold to sustain any upward move.
A clean break below it would be devastating for gold.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) needs to climb above 92 to see more upside, and short-term support sits around 79, after which comes the major trendline support around 74.
NDX
People called me crazy when I first shared this chart back in January. Unless we see a material shift in the Iran conflict, this remains the most probable path from here.
