Trading Desk

SPX NDX

I expect a forceful bear market rally around 6.55K.

A break below 24.2K will activate a true bear market that most current market participants have never experienced before.

NIFTY As expected, NIFTY (Nifty 50) backtested and was rejected at the horizontal resistance line.

NKD1! (Nikkei 225) retraced from the channel resistance.

KOSPI This bull run consists of two parts. The major one is AI hardware, namely chips, and the minor one is AI applications, such as PLTR (Palantir).

KOSPI (Korea Composite Index), TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index), SOXX (Semiconductor ETF), and NVDA (Nvidia) are the bellwethers of the major part of this bull run.

The music stops when they break below the key support levels shown in the charts.

US10YAnd this is not just the U.S. We have seen a sharp rise in 10y yields globally since the Iran conflict began, with the U.K. +53bp, Canada +38bp, Germany +32bp, Italy +52bp, Japan +12bp, Australia +30bp, South Korea +23bp, Brazil +88bp, South Africa +96bp, Mexico +48bp, and France +45bp.

SPX

Note that there is a strong support level around 6550, where I expect a bounce to occur and which would be a good spot to cover any remaining shorts if we get there.

Indices have been following our script since early January. The majority of global indices have broken below key support, backtested it, and been rejected there. The only outlier is NDX, which is very close to the final resolution we’ve been anticipating.

DXY Dollar rallied as I expected and is now trading around 100. This is a key level. If it breaks and does not reverse quickly, it could help the dollar march back toward 108, which is in line with my expectation of a global market meltdown where the dollar remains the only safe asset.

XAGUSD Silver has a similar formation.

If it doesn't reclaim the channel, the next major support sits around 63.

CL1!  A quiet weekend could help oil open above 100 on Sunday night, and it could test last week's high of 120 early next week.

If it escalates, we could see it test the ATH around 145, while de-escalation could cause it to gap down toward 80.

US02Y If the war drags on, we should continue to see US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) grind higher, forcing the Fed to hike and dampen growth. Or worse, if Trump forces cuts, the consequences will be even more dire when the reckoning comes.

HG1! Copper is consolidating in the orange box. A break below 5.55 opens the door for a test of the lower channel around 4.9.

AMZN rebounded from our lower channel support. As long as it remains in the channel, it’s safe.

XAUUSD Gold broke below the lower channel support and is holding on for dear life around 5K, which is the last support before we see it dumped toward 4.7K.

SPX CL1! XAUUSD

The market continues to move around headlines, with SPX and oil price correlation at one of its most negatively correlated percentiles. Most assets are now highly correlated with oil prices, and it should remain this way until we see a material change in the Iran conflict. As long as Trump does not TACO, we should see oil grind higher and higher. Gold remains range bound. I wouldn't trade it until it shows a clear direction.

SPX, RUT, and DJI backtested and retraced from their respective key resistance levels.

NDX is still holding strong as flows rotate back into abandoned software names and MAGS.

NQ1! retraced from the declining top line.

CL1!

As I expected, the dip was bought, with crude now trading back at last Friday's level. Crude reacted negatively at first to the release of oil reserves and was dumped below our 80 to 85 support level on the headlines, but managed to quickly reclaim the support level before the close. A confirmed break above 95 signals more upside, while a confirmed break below 80 to 85 signals more downside. Trump's rhetoric now has increasingly less effect on price as the market is realizing the war is not ending soon. Unless we see a TACO, oil should continue to edge higher and perhaps make a new ATH as early as next week. Given Trump's erratic decision making, an SL is paramount in this environment to protect your profits in case it goes sour.

US02Y US10Y US30Y CL1!

Yields are soaring across the curve and around the globe due to rising oil prices and, therefore, rising inflation expectations. This will force the Fed to hike, not cut.

CL1!  Crude failed at my resistance around 120 and found a ST bottom at my previous resistance of 95, which turned into support after the break.

After Trump's tweeted that the war is ending soon, it broke lower and found support at my previous resistance around 80-85.

If the war escalates in the coming days or the market realizes it is not ending soon, we should grind back toward the recent high.

And if Trump somehow pulls a full TACO on Iran, or if we see a meaningful release of oil reserves by the G7, it could have some negative impact on crude prices.

A confirmed break above 95 signals more upside, while a confirmed break below 80-85 signals more downside. I think this dip will be bought, as I doubt Trump will pull a full TACO on Iran.

Be alert though, he's the greatest market manipulator of all time. And as the market gets increasingly volatile, you must always have a plan and an SL in place before entry.

NDX NQ1!

We witnessed another historic day of market manipulation, with major indices across the globe selling off during Asian hours and being pumped deep into green territory by the U.S. close.

SPX backtested the key 6.8K level. The next few sessions are very important in determining the direction of the coming weeks.

Congrats to those who shorted above 25K and took profit at 24.2K. Note that the index rebounded sharply and is now back above both 24.2K and the uptrendline resistance. The bear market is only activated after a decisive break below these levels. And for those who think the past few days have been a wild ride, this is just an appetizer. If you couldn’t stomach the past few days’ volatility, you won’t survive when the bear awakens.

ES1! bounced from the horizontal support on Sunday night.

NQ1! 1h, a decisive break above this level suggests more upside momentum in the ST, while a decisive reversal could bring us back to Sunday's low.

DJI is the weakest.

RUT backtested the breakdown yesterday as well.

XAUUSD The lower channel support has continued to hold over the past few days.

Gold's technicals haven't changed.

A break below the lower channel support opens the door for a retest of the major trendline around 4.7K.

Conversely, a break above 5.4K opens the door for a retest of the ATH at 5.6K.

HTI1! (Hang Seng TECH Index Futures) rebounded from my support around 4740.