SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) rebounded from a trendline support.
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SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) rebounded from a trendline support.
MAGS (Magnificent 7) backtested the downtrend resistance again. Bulls must print a confirmed break above this trendline and the key 63 level before MAGS can edge higher.
XAUUSD CL1!
The lower channel support has continued to hold over the past few days, and despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and several Gulf countries announcing increasingly larger production cuts, the market is reacting more to Trump's narrative that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will resume and the war will be concluded soon.
PLTR
As I noted last week, there are two paths for PLTR. Should the Iran conflict continue and the narrative around its software being used by the U.S. military in the conflict continue, it could see ST momentum toward 170 before reversing. The other path is rejection at the 155 resistance.
As foretold, VIX exploded.
Crude was dumped 20 dollars off our resistance.
CL1!
Like I said, crude and the dollar are the only things that can go up.
CL1!
NVDA (Nvidia) remains above the line in the sand at 167. A break below this level unleashes the Kraken.
After holding strong at these key levels for months, SPX, DJI, and RUT finally gave way, just as I foretold before Monday’s open. NDX is the last man standing. Unless Trump pumps the market next week and gets all the major indices back above key support, we’re entering turbulent waters for months, perhaps years to come, should my stagflation thesis prove correct.
NKD1! Stock markets worldwide have experienced a sharp rise over the past 12 to 24 months, and many of them have reached record extremes, just like the gold and silver frenzy back in January. NIKKEI (Nikkei 225) was among those extremes.
Such extremes always precede devastating resolutions, and some of them are already unfolding.
VIX SPX
If the war doesn't deescalate over the weekend or early next week, we're on the precipice of a volmageddon.
XAUUSD
A break below the support around 5.1K opens the door for a retest of the major trendline around 4.7K. The probability of heading lower increases each day as the war drags on and as equities have broken below key support levels.
CL1!
95 is the next resistance. A confirmed break opens the door to 110.
CL1! Crude has surged beyond my initial target of 85.
As price goes vertical, a stop should be in place to protect your profits. A confirmed break above 85 opens the door to 100 to 110.
DJINote that the Dow Jones has broken below a key trendline support. Market breadth has improved significantly since Q4 2025, as money has been flowing out of MAG7 and into the rest of the market. The Dow had been outperforming for months and was resilient to drawdowns until this week. If it fails to reclaim the uptrendline, it risks heading lower to test the 45K support.
KOSPI Stock markets worldwide have experienced a sharp rise over the past 12 to 24 months, and many of them have reached record extremes, just like the gold and silver frenzy back in January. KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) was among those extremes. Such extremes always precede devastating resolutions, and some of them are already unfolding.
XAUUSD
Gold remains under pressure, as I foretold. It is battling around the key 5.1K support. If it gives way, a retest of the major trendline around 4.7K is possible. The probability of heading lower increases each day as the war drags on.
SPX CL1! NDX
Equities remain resilient as SPX once again managed to climb back above the key 6.8K support before the close. The market is at a tipping point. I know it, you know it, Trump knows it too. Of all the presidents I've traded through, he may be the one who cares most about the stock market, as he always pumps it with fake news when it's about to break. The trick has worked, and it's still working. But he's running out of time. Crude is surging toward 90. A $10 per barrel increase can translate into roughly a 20 bp increase in CPI. With crude up about $30 per barrel since January, we could easily see inflation surge past 4%. Pressure from within the U.S. and from the midterm election could outweigh the upside of winning this war. But he'll want a winning narrative even if he withdraws. Trump ties stock market performance to his presidency. He wouldn't let this level go that easily. As we have witnessed over the past few weeks, countless attempts to break below support were lifted back before the close. Have stops in place to protect your profits.
CL1! Crude is set to move higher. As price goes vertical, a stop should be in place to protect your profits.
VIX As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) remains above the uptrend line, I expect to see a volmageddon event later this year.
BTC1!
Market Update
#Bitcoin View note
Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
NDX climbed back above the uptrend support line.
XAGUSD Silver's technicals are similar to gold's, but it has more work to do if it wants to head higher.
A break below the channel risks a retest of the major trendline around 65.