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XAUUSD Gold pulled back from the major resistance around 5.4K as expected.
Silver continues to lag gold, as it couldn't hold above the key 90 level for even half a day and has now retraced back below it.
I warned this repeatedly in January, but it's worth saying again: gold tends to outperform pre and post crisis, and trades like a risk asset during a crisis.
As equities get ever closer to the breaking point, once the floodgates open, nothing survives, including gold.
The only thing that can go up is USD/DXY, and perhaps oil if the conflict escalates.
Gold pulled back precisely from our 5414 resistance.
SPX NDX NQ1!
Despite selloffs in key names, indices remain stubborn.
MAGS pulled back as I expected.
CL1! XAUUSD XAGUSD
The U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury early Saturday morning, with coordinated strikes inside Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been confirmed dead. Unlike Venezuela, Iran has the capability to fight back, with ongoing missile and drone attacks aimed at Israel and U.S. bases across several Gulf and Arab host countries.
I expect gold to test the upper channel around 5400 to 5450 shortly after the Sunday open, silver to test resistance around 102, and Crude to test our target of 72. Note that the current conflict's impact on oil prices has been contained to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and has not caused widespread destruction of oil and gas infrastructure. Should that occur, oil could easily spike above 100.
A break above 80 to 85 signals further upside toward 110 to 120. I'll provide more updates if the U.S. Iran situation escalates.
The charts below show vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Red dots and red triangles are tankers.
NVDA (Nvidia) failed to close above the 11/20 high and retraced sharply over the last two sessions. Friday's selloff into the close was particularly worth noting, as most of the MAG7 (Magnificent 7) rallied into the close while NVDA dumped. It seems NVDA is playing catch up to the downside so it can break below 167 at the same time as NDX (Nasdaq 100) breaks below 24,200, which would activate a true bear market that most of my dear subscribers have not experienced before.
Fireworks begin once SPX breaks below the trendline.
VIX As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) stays above this trendline, the risk of an explosive move remains.
NVDA (Nvidia) posted a widely expected earnings beat after the close yesterday. Bulls shouldn't get overexcited yet, as NVDA remains below the 11/20 high, the day after last quarter's earnings. That level has acted as resistance for the past three months. The after hours earnings pop was quickly faded, and NVDA even traded in negative territory for a while. Today and tomorrow are key for the direction of the coming months.
SPX NDX NQ1!
Indices extended the rally after countless failed attempts to break below the key trendline support over the past few days.
XAGUSD Silver's technicals remain weaker than gold as it struggles to break above the major resistance around 90.
KOSPI SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) monthly Bollinger Band is very extended. KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) and TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index) are also showing extremes. Note that both KOSPI and TAIEX are heavily concentrated in the semiconductor sector.
XAUUSD Gold pulled back precisely from the 5.25K resistance and found support right at our 5093 level.
HTI1! (Hang Seng TECH Index Futures) backtested and reversed from the uptrendline resistance.
SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) is very close to completing the pattern.
SOXX monthly Bollinger Band is very extended. KOSPI and TAIEX are also showing extremes. Note that both KOSPI and TAIEX are heavily concentrated in the semiconductor sector.
PLTR (Palantir) risks heading much lower if it is rejected at the neckline.
MAGS The rally into an NVDA earnings beat helped MAGS (Magnificent 7) break above the resistance. However, I advise caution as most of the key names were sold heavily after earnings regardless of the results. MAGS must hold above 63 to see further rallies.
BTC1!
Market Update
#Bitcoin View note
Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
Indices are still showing resilience as SPX closed on the uptrendline support yesterday.
NQ1!
NQ and NDX closed on the support line yesterday. Note that NQ faded META’s pop from its commitment to AMD chips in just 30 minutes.
XAUUSD just rebounded from our 5.1K support, 5093 to be precise.
XAUUSD Gold pulled back precisely from the 5.25K resistance.
XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) broke below the key support around 51. If it fails to reclaim that level over the next few sessions, it risks going much, much lower.
NQ1! rebounded from the uptrend support line overnight. Again, as long as bulls hold this level, we should grind higher, and a clear break below this level will open the door for a retest of 24.2K.
