MU's earnings, Oracle's TikTok acquisition, distorted CPI data, and the Genesis mission headlines lifted the indices and key names last Thursday and Friday, helping to avoid further downside.
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MU's earnings, Oracle's TikTok acquisition, distorted CPI data, and the Genesis mission headlines lifted the indices and key names last Thursday and Friday, helping to avoid further downside.
ES1! resistance level:6857-6858, 6878-6882
ES support level:6828-6830, 6815-6817, 6890-6892
XAUUSD Daily, gold made yet another failed attempt to print a new ATH. Momentum is still there, but time is running out. It needs to clear resistance in the near term, otherwise a larger pullback becomes the base case as long end yields keep creeping higher globally.
TikTok's separation is finally moving, with binding agreements to form a US joint venture controlled by US investors led by Oracle, and ORCL is bid pre market. OpenAI is also reportedly seeking up to $100bn in fresh capital at a valuation as high as $830bn, so expect more circular deals to follow. The BoJ raised its benchmark rate to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades, and signaled more increases are possible if conditions allow. 10y JGB yields pushed to their highest since 1999.
The market's rally after the CPI release is not reassuring. The headline was 2.6% YoY. The BLS resumed CPI data collection on November 14, which means a large portion of the data was captured during the discount season around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, biasing the print to the downside. There's no way CPI was below 3% last month. Even after the bounce, technicals have not improved in any meaningful way across the board. I won't be posting as often as we head into Christmas.
NVDA167 is the line of sand
ES1! resistance levels: 6850-6855, 6880-6885
ES support levels: 6817-7818, 6800-6803, 6790-6793
XAUUSD Daily, gold has made countless failed attempts to print a new ATH over the past few days. Momentum remains strong, but it is running out of time. As I said, it needs to break above resistance in the near term, or a larger pullback is in order.
MSFT Daily, a confirmed double top
MAGS Daily, NVDA breakdown will likely be accompanied by a breakdown in the Mag7
NVDA Daily, 167 is the line in the sand
SOXX Daily, our double top call was spot on
DJI Daily, it must bounce back above 48250 in the coming days, or a more significant pullback is in order
NKD1! Daily, broken below the trendline support
NDX Daily, a break below the neckline support signals the end of this bull run
SPX Daily
We called the market top back in November and again last Friday, and each was followed by a meaningful drawdown. Now we are at an inflection point: the indices and a few key stocks and sectors need to bounce in the coming days, or the bull market will be over. Note that ORCL has quietly halved from its September peak after it announced the circular deal with OpenAI. NVDA is now about 1% away from its November low, while SPX was just 0.25% away from ATH last Thursday. This is a common setup near the end of bull runs, when the bellwethers start leading to the downside even as the indices keep grinding higher. And as we have seen over the past few days, RUT and DJI are now catching up on the downside as well.
BTC1!
Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
ES1! resistance levels: 6883-6885, 6895-6898, 6906-6910, 6920-6930
ES support levels: 6861-6864, 6845-6850
SPX Daily, the index is forming a potential double top. The chart is showing the worst possible trajectory. A rebound from 6550 to 6700 would be the perfect spot to open shorts, should the double top materialize
NVDA Daily
NQ1! Daily
AMZN is in talks to invest more than $10bn in OpenAI and sell it additional chips and computing power, another circular deal. The market is reacting positively pre market, with AMZN up 1.5%. Most major AI players have seen sell the news reactions over the past two months. If AMZN can sustain the pre market gain, it could be an early signal that sentiment is rotating back toward AI.
With the midterm election less than a year away, polls suggest the cost of living remains the top voter concern. With control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, Republicans are in a position to pursue policy measures to shift sentiment ahead of the election. The consensus expectation, reflected in prediction markets, is that Democrats are more likely to win the House majority next year, which could motivate Republicans to act sooner rather than later. The most obvious policy lever would be tariff reductions. The Supreme Court looks more likely than not to rule early next year that most of the tariffs the administration has imposed so far this year are illegal, which would create an opening to make changes. While I think the White House would seek to reimpose tariffs under different authorities if the court blocks the IEEPA tariffs, the risks still lean toward lower tariff rates.
Futures were bid overnight with NQ1! making a higher high. Note the pattern remains bearish across the board. This is expiration week, and as I noted in yesterday's opening comment, I expect ES1! to chop between 6820 and 6930 throughout this week, and it rebounded from our 6820 yesterday. GC1! made two more attempts to make new highs and both failed. Momentum remains strong for GC, though as I noted in recent days, it must break resistance in the near term, otherwise we should expect a larger pullback. SPX is forming a potential double top and the chart is tracking the worst possible trajectory. A rebound from 6550 to 6700 would be the perfect spot to open a short, should the double top materialize.
ES1! resistance levels: 6886-6890, 6910-6913, 6930-6935
ES support levels: 6851-6855. 6823-6825
I think ES will chop between 6820-6930 throughout this week