ES1! daily, showing the index reversed at the neckline
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ES1! daily, showing the index reversed at the neckline
ES1! tested our low 6k support in RTH yesterday and tested our key support around 5985-90 in premarket today and it held so far. I outlined both levels in yesterday's opening comments.
ES 1h showing the index broke down below a ST support line
A break below 5994 would take us to the 5981-5984 range, which is the last support level for the bulls. Beyond this, we may see 5945-50.
On the upside, a break above 6025-28 could extend the upside to 6035-37, followed by a massive resistance at 6055-60.
Due to the lower open, I expect some early morning upside. However, the rally will likely face resistance around 6025 or 35. We will likely see a downside reversal with a target just below the overnight low, at around 5985.
NQ1! dropped to 21900 from my short entry but then reversed and stopped me out at 22000. ES1! just tested the low 6000 area, as I mentioned in today's opening comments.
The tape was so erratic, they just won't shut up. Every freaking minute, there's a popup message from Bessent, Lutnick, or the Orange Clown.
This is the worst administration, disgusting
Q：I hold the short position. Do you suggest Stop profit at 5990?
A：I would close 50% when ES1! tests low 6K and close the other 50% around 5990
Lowering SL to 22000
NQ1!
Opened NQ1! short at 21975, full position, stop at 22045
openes NQ1! short at 21975
A break below 6040 would take us to the 6018-6020 area, after which the 6002-6005 zone comes into play. That would be the last stop before 5985–5990.
I expect ES1! to drop into the low 6000s, possibly testing the 5990 area sometime today. If 5985–90 holds, we may bounce. Otherwise, 5945–50 is the next downside target.
Futures spiked on lower-than-expected CPI, despite the newly announced China trade deal turning out to be a disaster. Higher unemployment claims, historically low consumer sentiment, and cooler CPI indicate that the economy is slowing down significantly. Tariffs take 3 to 5 months to affect the economy, so we haven't seen their full impact yet. But once the effects begin, things will look even grimmer.
I think we'll see a different market after the open today. Aside from very early action, I expect ES1! to move into negative territory swiftly. 5990 will be the key level for the day.
ES1! tested a very important resistance level around 6035-40 last night, a level I've highlighted multiple times since last week. We opened a short position at 6038.5, and soon after, ES dropped 50 handles from that point.
The index recovered some of its losses in premarket trading, buoyed by hopes of positive news from the U.S. China trade talks. I expect generic headlines like "Trade talks went very well" at some point today. But I'm unsure how the market will react. The market may be tired of the same old rhetoric and could demand an actual trade agreement, something I doubt will ever materialize.
Given this, it's possible that we'll retest the overnight low around 5980-5990 zone today. The timing of the test will likely solely depend on news flow.
opened 1/2 ES1! short at 6038.5, stop 6061
ES1! opened the globex session at 5930 yesterday and grinded higher overnight, gaining 45 handles to reach 5975 ahead of today's jobs report. Like most economic releases, this one appeared to be leaked, with insiders buying the dip pre announcement. After the report, ES spiked to 5997, erasing yesterday's losses and some more. Meanwhile, bonds sold off sharply, pushing yields higher, while commodities showed little reaction.
A break above 6010 extends the upside to 6022, after which major resistance lies around 6035-40. That is a key level and could trigger a reversal. Depending on intraday conditions, I may initiate a swing short around that area
Futures first spiked lower on higher than expected jobless claims, then spiked higher on Trump's phone call to Xi. It's funny how a worthless piece of news initially impacts the market more than a weakening economy.
Wwe might see a gap and crap opening, but the 5970 area is key for the rest of the day. If ES1! holds around this support level, we could see another push toward 6K or slightly higher.
NQ1! touched the resistance lines and reversed
ES1! just chopped between our first resistance and support levels, which are 5995 and 5975, trapping both bulls and bears. I think whichever direction it breaks out of this range first will likely be a fakeout.
Futures were positive before the ADP jobs report was released. It was a big disappointment, pointing to a recession, but futures only dropped to flat territory.
I think we will revisit 6K+ once more this week, but it may come after a shakeout toward 5950. My ideal short entry zone is the 6030–6050 area, but I'm not sure we'll test it this week. There's another level around 6010 that may also mark the next ST high.
A break below 5975 opens the door to test the 5960 area, with a possible extension to 5949-5953
On the upside, a break above 5995 could take us to 6010, which is strong resistance. Beyond 6010, the 6030±5 area comes into play.
I don't think we'll see it today, but if we do, I'll short it. I may also take a short position around 6010, depending on intraday conditions.
NQ1! 1h, grinds along the broken uptrend line
NQ1! 1h, NQ may be leading the market lower, as it has already broken below the support line originating from the April low.
If we get a good bounce in the morning I will be looking to initiate a NQ1! short position.
Futures were weak throughout the overnight session, and we saw additional selling pressure following Trump's comments on China. The PCE data came in as expected, and we also have the 9:45 AM PMI release and the 10 AM Michigan Consumer Sentiment report scheduled for today. This is gonna be an interesting Friday, with negative news flow and an extremely bullish retail crowd.
Because of the gap down we may see some upside early in the morning but I expect ES1! to test at least 5891, possibly 5881 sometime today. 5869-70 is the last support bulls have. After this, 5845-50 comes in play
I am expecting ES1! to test either 5925 or 5910-12 range in the morning session. If 5910-12 holds, we may bounce back to 42-50 area
NQ1! tagged intermediate term upside target on tariff news
ES1! tagged the neckline second time and rejected again
Open 1/2 ES1! short at 5980, stop is 5988
Trump revived tariffs Friday, folded Sunday, then flipped again in premarket today.
Counterintuitively, this is very bullish for stocks in the ST because Trump will tweet the market higher. Tariffs are just noise, a distraction from the real crisis we've warned about since 2021: debt and stagflation.
Once the tariff theatrics end, Trump's next market pump will be tax cuts and deregulation hype. But when that ammo runs out? Reality hits: yields surge, DXY drops, and SPX tanks.
Closed the remaining at 5806
ES1!
Closed 1/4 ES1! at 5782, keeping the other 1/4 with a stop at breakeven