ES1! rallied all the way into the zone where multiple critical long-term pivots were broken last week. The 5500-5600 area is now a decisive inflection point. If this bear market is to continue, the index may reverse lower from this zone.
Ignore the tariff news. This bear market is driven by far deeper fundamentals. If the market wants to reverse here, it'll manufacture an excuse.
ES1! just hit our weekly target of 5450 and reversed 100 handles
Stop 5085
ES1!
Open 1/2 ES1! short at 5058
Q：How did you dodge this trap? any piece of info shown on chart or orderflow last night?
A：5185-5190 was an important resistance level overnight, as it coincided with the Nikkei 225's trendline resistance from 2020. We closed our longs around that level. I intended to re-enter long around 5115-5120, but we didn't get there.
Once ES1! broke through the 5185-90 resistance, it became support. Yesterday's high (5285) is the next major resistance. Had I re-entered the long, I would have closed half the position at that level and set stops for the remaining half at 5180.
Closed ES1! at 5182, for 27 handles
this has been the most profitable bear market i have experienced, surpassing even the GFC
VIX and bonds remain the key tells. During the selloff, both rose inversely to SPX. And both now are declining in unison.
News flow is noise. bears betting on China tariff fallout. If you noticed, the market is not falling.
Puts are extremely expensive, and if the market doesn't fall, they'll be dumped which will fuel the upside
and ES1! reversed at 5280, you had been warned
I just closed my longs from last night, still keeping the longs from 5150
ES1!
Today's open is an exhaustion gap. Only rival to current situation is 87 crash which still produced positive prices following week
I've been adding around 4850 and have buy orders all the way to 4750, I'm expecting 5000 tomorrow and 5450 this week
ES1!
ES1! rallied to 5190 in the last 30m but failed there. A lot of bag holders who were holding all the way down for weeks were finally liquidated at the close.
Our market crash call came true and exceeded my expectation. We made a killing with crash puts earlier this week but this late session liquidation spree soured thing up
If we open with a large gap up on sunday, it will likely not get filled for a few weeks.
Have a good weekend
Open ES1! long 5155
Closed SPX·Closed puts
ES1! showing a trendline support around 5445, which is close to our projection of 5450
ES1! and RTY1! both ended their respective bull market trendlines. NQ1! was the first index to break back in March. Today ES and RTY joined NQ
Close ES1! short at 5532 for 21 handles profit
Open 1/2 ES1! short at 5553
ES1! opened below the bull market channel, officially terminating the bull market as of 6pm ET
ES1! is headed to 5450 from this high
filled
ES1!
NQ1!
Set SL at 5738 and conditional SL for NQ1! when ES1! hits 5738.
Added 1/2 NQ1! short at 19825
Open 1/2 ES1! short at 5724
Open 1/2 es short at 5682
ES1!
