XAUUSD is testing the channel resistance and has little to no upside in the ST. Unless there's an external factor like a new war, it may pull back to the mid-channel
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XAUUSD is testing the channel resistance and has little to no upside in the ST. Unless there's an external factor like a new war, it may pull back to the mid-channel
closed ES1!
Using this profit as SL for the remaining 1/2 ES1!. I'm now holding 1/2 ES short at 5691.25 with SL at 5,708.5
Closed 1/2 ES1! at 5674 for 17.25
Added 1/2 ES1! short at 5699, now fully short from 5,691.25
Added 1/2 ES1! short at 5699, now fully short from 5,691.25
Open 1/2 ES1! short at 5683.5
Open 1/2 ES1! short at 5683.5
Futures rallied in overnight session, setting up for a gap and crap type opening again. Not sure why but there is still a relentless desire not to miss the bottom among retail traders. This is evident by the elevated levels of daily purchases of stocks and ETFs by retail traders throughout the March. Another sentiment metric we follow, put/call ratios, never showed any fear whatsoever. And VIX never made a big move throughout the sell off, it was steadily and orderly rising. All these suggest there should be a capitulation to end this leg down and next week's quad expiration is a very suitable period to do so.
NQ1! could rally to 19400 area, in my view
NQ1! could rally to 19400 area, in my view
Closed NQ1! at 19373 for 200 handles. Closed ES at 5553 for 35.25 handles.
Closed NQ1! at 19373 for 200 handles. Closed ES1! at 5553 for 35.25 handles.
close NQ1! and ES1!
close NQ1! and ES1!
open 1/2 NQ1! long at 19173
Opened 1/2 ES1! long at 5517.75
ES1!:
A break below 5600 takes us to 5585, if this gets tested early in the session, it may mark the low of the day if we are going to rally today
5645 is an important resistance, this is where ES failed in premarket and reverse lower. If the index can take out this resistance upside can extend to 5685 area.
SPX daily, it will probably find a support around the channel support, that is like 5450. If we get a bounce today or sometime this week, it will likely be a short lived and we will probably reverse lower during expiration week next week to test sub 5500
NDX daily, broke down yesterday
SOX broke down below an important long term support yesterday, headed to the blue horizontal neckline, this chart alone implies that we have not seen the low yet, at least in Nasdaq
It's strange that people never stopped calling for a bottom throughout the entire sell-off. This is evident from the put/call ratios, which remained absurdly low, even yesterday. It's clear that the retail crowd remains bullish, with no fear at all. This is also reflected in the VIX, which never spiked but instead rallied slowly and steadily.
In my opinion, such conditions eventually lead to a crash-like move that finally restores balance. ES1! was down over 200 handles at one point yesterday, and while the market is clearly oversold, I don't think it's ready to put in a lasting low yet.
Closed at 5627
ES1!
placed order to buy 1/2 ES1! at 5582