June twenty-ninth, two thousand twenty-five (250623-250629)
A victory for the brave:The chart below shows the price performance of the iShares MSCI global country index ETF, a benchmark for global equity markets, over nearly 2 years, After a major sell-off, global markets have completed a full “pullback–rebound” cycle during the weary period following the end of the pessimistic narrative, returning to the 124 level near historical highs.
Chart: iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O)
In fact, the 120-124 range turned into key support during the pullback, and the short-term retreat to around 124 confirmed that the support held, ETF (global equities) is resuming its uptrend.
As expectations for rate cuts are gradually priced in (although futures markets still widely expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged in 7, according to CME FedWatch, The market’s expected probability of a rate cut in 7 rose from 14.5% the previous week to about 19% this week），
Among the major U.S. session indexes, both the Nasdaq and the S&P also closed at new highs:
Chart: Nasdaq
Chart: S&P
However In terms of confirmation across indexes, the Dow Jones is still missing:
Chart: No confirmation of consistency at the major-index level
In addition,
If we look at this new high from the perspective of market microstructure,
the market’s indecision is quite evident...
Chart: A micro view behind the new high
In the final moments before the close, buying demand pulled the price back from below the new high, drawing a perfect full stop for the price
But it was also a relatively weak full stop...
...
For now, On a relative-value basis, gold may face liquidation first, followed by the equity indices. The process of killing gold bulls is the process of the indices pushing higher. During this process, the Dow (and indices like the Russell Two Thousand likewise) may continue rising on the daily chart to a level near a new high, but a false breakout is more likely.
Chart: The Russell Two Thousand offers greater trading value, relatively speaking, and its range is also fairly clear.
Chart: A price chart showing the relative value of gold and the S&P
Chart: Notes250627 A few simple points: the Fed, oil prices, gold, and the U.S. dollar index (continued)
We are more focused on emerging markets:
Chart: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)
The chart above overlays EEM on ACWI, namely the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF.
Since the global-asset low in 20, the Emerging Markets Index has underperformed on a relative basis. However, at this stage, going long EM offers greater return potential.The upper boundary of the EEM trend channel is around 50 and could be the upside target for the next phase, If risk-asset appetite persists, the uptrend could accelerate and potentially outperform on a relative basis.
Cross-asset weekly review (250629)
1) TLT, SPX, and USDX
Chart: TLT, the U.S. Dollar Index, and SPX
TLT continued to rise as expected(This part is essentially an allocation; I wonder if anyone took it?);
As for Our bearish view on U.S. equity indexes is unchanged, though short-term momentum is strong; we will look for an opportunity to open shorts later;
U.S. Dollar Index below 100, In FX, the key pairs to watch are EUR and CHF;
2) Gold, silver, and platinum
Chart: The first phase of the dollar’s pressure on gold
“Gold has now moved down into the middle of a very wide, high-volume area, where buyers and sellers seem willing to trade at any price within this range.One key issue with a high-volume area is that it becomes a concentration zone for losing positions (various signals lead investors to repeatedly enter and exit at the wrong prices). Once the price leaves this area, those on the wrong side will be forced to stop out or chase the move, creating momentum in the trend’s direction and producing a genuine breakout.This kind of imbalance-driven move, consistent with market microstructure logic, is precisely what needs to happen in the gold market now.”
——Weekly Wrap250622
It is already happening.
Chart: Platinum surged again after breaking out of 1250
Chart: Silver still has not seen a pullback
3）Bitco
Chart: Still fluctuating around 105200
Since exiting at our target price, Bitco has repeatedly failed to break out and has been range-bound ever since.
4）EURUSD、USDJPY、USDCHF
U.S. Dollar Index below 100, In FX, the key pairs to watch are EUR and CHF.
For details, see:Notes250626 Key decision moments in macro trading: discussing the latest surge in EUR
Chart: EURUSD
Chart: USDCHF
JPY has now been completely removed from our target watchlist.
5）Soybeans & Brazilian equities
Chart: Soybean reference price
Chart: Brazilian equity index, we will bet on a record high
See Notes250616 A rare macro trading opportunity: starting with soybeans
6) Indian equities
Chart: Continuing higher
We are holding this part steadily; let the profitable positions run.
For details, see: Notes250508 The India-Pakistan conflict and the core trading group for regional geopolitical events
7) Bloomberg Commodity Index BCI
Chart: Watching 22(The weekly candle clearly closed above the horizontal line!)
8) COMEX Copper
Chart: Watch 5.4(The weekly candle clearly closed above the horizontal line!)
9) Shanghai Composite 50
Chart: Watch 2760(The weekly candle clearly closed above the horizontal line!)
The weekend is over. Wishing everyone who made it this far a happy life and all the best in the new week!
If you made it this far, leave a like so we know!
Note: All content in this article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and does not serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use this information as a basis for decisions or rely on it.