June twenty-third, two thousand twenty-five to June twenty-fourth, two thousand twenty-five

I. Foundation 

resistance to change and hence greater dependability for the results shown in the past.

II. Insights 

Our Viewpoints and ideas on market...

Why the conflict is not being priced as a protracted war: what distinguishes the Iran-Israel conflict

Oil prices fell back to the 65 key level we had previously marked within just two trading days, What is interesting is that the oil market ultimately repeated the price pattern from 10 of last year. If the two trades are overlaid, the difference between their respective highs and lows is only nearly 1 points..

Chart: Price action repeated after 9 months

Before the Asian session yesterday, we updated several assessments in our real-time brief:

1) 80 dollars is the key pivot for whether crude oil can make a genuine breakout

2) If the contract opens above the 80 threshold, it could have room to test the 95-dollar range

3) If it opens below 80, it may fill the gap

Chart:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies

Everyone knows what happened next, After the peak at 78.4 (the attempt to break 80 failed),

As of this writing, it has fallen nearly 11.5% for the week..

The key reason the Iran-Israel conflict has not continued to be priced by markets as a long-term war—“another Middle East quagmire”—is that, in fact, it differs significantly from other geopolitical issues in the region and around the world:

The Iraq War, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and even the Korean War began with tens of thousands of ground troops and then became quagmires in practice... In this conflict, by contrast, the United States and Israel have relied mainly on naval and air assets. So even if there is a potential risk of blowback at the tail end (which is why we will not actually take a direct short position), it belongs to a different paradigm of warfare and should not be conflated with the concentrated, protracted wars mentioned above.

In other words, this conflict is essentially a targeted strike in which technology artificially compresses geographical distance..

On the other hand, As the conflict has unfolded to this point, the United States and Israel have in effect substantially achieved their objectives; the attacks have caused damage. Although the extent of that damage remains to be assessed, it is certain that Iran is unlikely to rebuild its nuclear facilities at Fordow or Natanz...

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday, The attacks on Iran's three main nuclear facilities—Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow—left its key enrichment facilities “totally destroyed.”Iranian media subsequently acknowledged that parts of the Fordow facility had come under “enemy attack.”

“For years, you have all heard these names because they built this terrible, destructive enterprise.Our objective was to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities,” Trump said Saturday evening. “This was a spectacular military success.”

The Fordow nuclear fuel enrichment plant is located beneath a mountain and protected by anti-aircraft batteries; it was considered beyond the reach of Israeli airstrikes.Taking Fordow offline is seen as critical to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, because the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found that uranium enrichment at the facility had reached 83.7%, close to the 90% needed to make a nuclear weapon.

A U.S. official told Reuters that B-2 bombers took part in strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and Trump told Fox News that Six bunker-buster bombs were dropped on the Fordow nuclear facility, while 30 Tomahawk missiles were launched at other nuclear facilities, including Natanz.

This was reportedly the first combat use of the GBU-57-ton massive penetrator bomb.

After the attack, Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump's action, adding that “the awesome and righteous power of the United States will change history.” In a video address, the Israeli prime minister said the United States had “done what no other country on Earth could do.”

At this point, the better course for both the United States and Israel is to begin de-escalating the conflict today.. This is another key reason the market is betting on de-escalation, The tail risk can only come from Iran, but its ability to act is already severely constrained...

At this point, an Iranian response is inevitable; the uncertainty is when it will hit. Direct positions in oil carry potential spike risk. After Iran responds, the United States and Israel are most likely to continue choosing de-escalation rather than responding or attacking again.

In terms of prices, this means oil is more likely to make another attempt before falling decisively back into our core downside range,

It is more likely to make another attempt at 70.

...Trump, in turn, thanked Netanyahu, saying they “worked together like perhaps no team has ever worked before”, and made significant progress in “eliminating this terrible threat to Israel.”

However, given the strength of its fortifications, it may take days or even longer to learn the impact of the attack on the Fordow nuclear facility...

U.S. involvement also means that Israel will have to give the United States something in return in at least some areas, such as a withdrawal from Gaza.

2025.06.24

Speculative positions in white metals and gold

During platinum's first move from profit-taking to an exit correction, we took a small position in gold:

After that, platinum never pulled back to the upside breakout point we were watching,

while silver continued its frenzy, with speculative positioning still at its highest level in nearly five years...

Chart: Platinum in a tight, hesitant range

Chart: Silver, even more frenzied

We chose a small trial position because the trade setup that day was not perfect and, logically, amounted to entering ahead of confirmation and waiting... As that wait failed, the trade opened the week before last to go long gold on a breakout within an inverted triangle pattern triggered a tight stop and exited.

Chart: Monthly chart

With one week left until the end of 6, a relatively bearish scenario is that gold could again see a rare monthly-scale extension lower during this current upcycle.The market's pricing range in the second quarter may persist for several months, but the lower half of the range will most likely be retested before the end of this month.

Easing tensions in the Middle East, falling oil prices and a stronger stock market... are not good for gold prices.

Gold supply in the New York market is currently ample, and in this environment, setting a new high is genuinely very difficult.

2025.06.24

III. Market Pulse 

Our latest Comments on the economic and market environment

Note: All content in this article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and is not a basis for any laws, regulations or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for decision-making.