二零二六年四月二十日 April 20, 2026

《当黄金重返货币与利率的定价框架》

《When Gold Returns to a Monetary and Rates Pricing Framework》

Author: Ariston

X ｜

Subscription｜

定制模型私信（目前仅开放中美股市的日级别模型定制）

微信：AristonMacro（添加请备注从业机构+姓名，无备注不会通过）

DM for custom models

一、黄金定价：重返货币与利率框架

I. Gold pricing: returning to a monetary and rates framework

截至今天，黄金仍较冲突前水平低约10%，而许多其他资产已经显著修复，其中一些几乎已完全回到冲突前的位置。黄金跟随风险资产一同遭到抛售，但其反弹幅度却低于预期。这是一个非常关键的问题。

As of today, gold is still roughly 10% below its pre-conflict level, while many other assets have already repaired materially, with some nearly back to where they were before the conflict. Gold was sold off together with risk assets, but its rebound has been weaker than expected. This is a very important question.

图：CMX金（日线图，截至260420）在我们标记的区域内运行得非常精准

Chart: CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 2026-04-20), trading very precisely within the zone we marked

传统上，黄金同时承担三种角色：1）危机对冲工具，2）通胀对冲工具，3）货币与利率对冲工具……这三种功能在平时往往相互重叠，但在不同冲击之下，主导因素会发生变化。

Traditionally, gold plays three roles at the same time: 1) a crisis hedge, 2) an inflation hedge, and 3) a monetary-and-rates hedge. These three functions often overlap under normal conditions, but under different shocks, the dominant driver can change.

如果只从危机对冲的视角来看，这一次黄金的表现的确令人失望。按常理，当地缘冲突升级、股市下跌、风险偏好消失时，黄金通常应当表现得更强。在许多危机的初期，黄金确实可能先出现短暂回撤，因为它流动性强，资金可能会动用它来补保证金、调整仓位并重新配置敞口。但这一次的跌幅已经远远超出了仅凭流动性所能解释的范围。

If viewed only through the lens of crisis hedging, gold's performance this time has indeed been disappointing. Under normal logic, when geopolitical conflict escalates, equities fall, and risk appetite disappears, gold should usually perform more strongly. In the early stage of many crises, gold can indeed see a brief pullback first because it is highly liquid and capital may use it to meet margin calls, adjust positions, and reallocate exposure. But this time the decline has gone far beyond what can be explained by liquidity alone.

通胀对冲这一层面，也没有像很多人原先设想的那样直接成立。由油价上涨和供应链中断推动的第一轮通胀上行，并不会自动让黄金在短期内表现更好。关键变量在于，这类通胀是否会让央行在更长时间内保持谨慎，甚至压缩降息空间、推迟降息，或提高进一步加息的风险。一旦这一层逻辑成立，持有黄金这种非生息资产的机会成本就会上升，从而反过来形成抛售压力。

The inflation-hedge layer has also not worked as directly as many people had originally assumed. The first-round inflation impulse driven by higher oil prices and supply-chain disruptions does not automatically make gold perform better in the short term. The key variable is whether that kind of inflation forces central banks to remain cautious for longer, compresses room for rate cuts, delays cuts, or raises the risk of further hikes. Once that logic takes hold, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold rises, which in turn creates selling pressure.

与此同时，由于市场认为美国相对而言较少受到能源冲击直接拖累，原本可能流向黄金的一部分避险需求，转而流向了美元。这也削弱了黄金作为对冲法币贬值工具的吸引力。

At the same time, because the market believes the United States is relatively less directly exposed to the energy shock, part of the safe-haven demand that might otherwise have gone into gold instead flowed into the U.S. dollar. That also reduced gold's appeal as a hedge against fiat-currency debasement.

...

真正主导这一轮黄金定价的，是它的货币对冲功能，或者换一种说法，即货币与利率框架：

What has truly dominated gold pricing in this round is its monetary-hedge function, or, put differently, the monetary-and-rates framework:

图：黄金重新与真实利率挂钩

Chart: Gold has re-linked itself to real rates

上图非常清楚地展示了金价与真实利率之间的关系。从这个角度看，中东冲突之后，黄金重新回到了由真实利率驱动的定价框架之中。

The chart above shows the relationship between gold prices and real rates very clearly. From this perspective, after the Middle East conflict, gold has returned to a pricing framework driven by real rates.

自冲突开始以来，黄金更多是在交易市场对美联储和真实利率的重新定价。也正因如此，黄金对于危机和通胀的保护功能，在短期内被货币政策逻辑所压过。

Since the conflict began, gold has been trading more as a market expression of Fed repricing and real-rate repricing. That is exactly why its crisis-protection and inflation-protection functions have, in the short term, been overwhelmed by monetary-policy logic.

事实上，黄金更像是一种有条件的避险资产，并非一种会对所有危机都无条件、无差别上涨的资产。需要区分的是，某场冲突究竟会如何影响通胀、利率以及政策反应。如果只是拿黄金去对冲“地缘冲突”这个标签，很有可能对冲错了真正的风险。

In fact, gold is more like a conditional safe-haven asset, not one that rises unconditionally and indiscriminately in every crisis. What needs to be distinguished is how a given conflict will affect inflation, interest rates, and the policy response. If one simply uses gold to hedge the label of geopolitical conflict, it is very easy to hedge the wrong risk.

图：自中东冲突以来，黄金显著跑输其他资产类别，也跑输了其自身过去在冲击后的表现

Chart: Since the Middle East conflict began, gold has materially underperformed other asset classes, and has also underperformed its own historical post-shock behavior

过去，许多风险事件更接近需求冲击。股市下跌，债券收益率下行，市场会提前交易增长走弱以及美联储转向更宽松的预期。这种环境天然利好黄金。

In the past, many risk events were closer to demand shocks. Equities fell, bond yields declined, and the market pre-priced weaker growth together with expectations of a more dovish Fed. That kind of environment is naturally supportive for gold.

相比之下，这一轮美国与伊朗冲击属于全球能源供给冲击。更高的油价和供应中断首先带来的是通胀黏性与政策谨慎，而非宽松预期。

By contrast, the current U.S.-Iran shock is a global energy-supply shock. Higher oil prices and supply disruptions first bring inflation stickiness and policy caution, not easing expectations.

图：US10Y叠加CMX金（日线图，截至260420）

Chart: US10Y overlaid with CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 2026-04-20)

事实上，自2月初以来，美国10年期国债收益率与CMX黄金之间的相关性就迅速转为显著负值。最近几周，黄金与真实利率之间的负相关关系已经重新建立起来。

In fact, since early February, the correlation between U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and CMX gold has quickly turned significantly negative. In recent weeks, the negative correlation between gold and real rates has already re-established itself.

图：US10Y（日线图，截至260420）

Chart: US10Y (daily chart, as of 2026-04-20)

到目前为止，美国国债收益率已经从高点回落，但仍未回到冲突前的低位。美国10年期国债收益率目前约为4.26%，此前高点约为4.42%，而在冲突之前则低于4%。只要这里的名义收益率和真实利率尚未完全回落，黄金就将继续面临更高的持有成本。

So far, U.S. Treasury yields have retreated from the highs, but they still have not returned to the lows seen before the conflict. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.26%, versus a prior high near 4.42%, while before the conflict it was below 4%. As long as nominal yields and real yields here have not fully come back down, gold will continue to face a higher holding cost.

除了10年期真实利率之外，前端利率路径也变得更加重要。这一次，黄金与美国2年期国债收益率之间的关系也不同于大多数历史情形。在许多过去的危机中，2年期收益率下行会支撑黄金。而这一次，前端利率先行上升，反映出市场将这一冲击理解为一种偏通胀性质、同时会限制美联储宽松空间的冲击，这同样压制了黄金的表现。

Beyond the 10-year real rate, the front-end rate path has also become more important. This time, gold's relationship with the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is also different from most historical episodes. In many past crises, a decline in the 2-year yield would support gold. This time, front-end rates moved up first, reflecting that the market interpreted the shock as inflationary in nature while also limiting the Fed's room to ease. That, too, weighed on gold's performance.

图：US02Y叠加CMX金（日线图，截至260420）

Chart: US02Y overlaid with CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 2026-04-20)

过去几年里，央行行为、储备多元化以及地缘局势发展，曾一度明显削弱了这种关系。这次冲击之后，市场很可能会重新回到那套旧框架，也就是通过观察真实利率如何变化，来交易黄金的反应。

Over the past few years, central-bank behavior, reserve diversification, and geopolitical developments had at one stage clearly weakened this relationship. After this shock, the market is very likely to return to that older framework, namely trading gold by watching how real rates evolve.

..

二、伊朗战争过后，当人民币成为一种安全资产

II. After the Iran war, the renminbi became a safe asset

3月，中国银行代客办理的跨境人民币收付达到9.5万亿元，这是历史上第一次超过8万亿元，单月同比增长约30%。更关键的是，人民币在全部跨境支付中的占比升至56.4%，而美元占比降至39.8%，首次跌破40%。这组数字的意义非常重大，因为它表明，人民币在中国相关跨境支付中的使用，已经出现了结构性抬升。

In March, cross-border renminbi receipts and payments handled by Chinese banks on behalf of clients reached RMB 9.5 trillion. This was the first time in history that the figure exceeded RMB 8 trillion, with year-on-year growth of roughly 30% for the month. More importantly, the renminbi's share of total cross-border payments rose to 56.4%, while the U.S. dollar's share fell to 39.8%, dropping below 40% for the first time. The significance of these numbers is very large because they show that the use of the renminbi in China-related cross-border payments has already seen a structural rise.

第二组最重要的数据来自CIPS。CIPS交易量的提升，说明人民币国际化也体现在实际清算基础设施被更高频地使用。当前，CIPS已有194家直接参与者和1597家间接参与者。3月，日均交易量达到9205亿元，较2月增长48.5%，单日峰值更是首次突破1.22万亿元。

The second most important set of data comes from CIPS. The rise in CIPS transaction volume shows that renminbi internationalization is also showing up in the more frequent use of actual clearing infrastructure. CIPS now has 194 direct participants and 1,597 indirect participants. In March, average daily transaction volume reached RMB 920.5 billion, up 48.5% from February, while the single-day peak exceeded RMB 1.22 trillion for the first time.

图：三月人民币跨境支付出现了历史级别抬升

Chart: Cross-border renminbi payments saw a historic surge in March

3月跨境人民币支付的突然上升，部分原因可能来自贸易流向的变化。比如，中国减少了通常以美元结算的海湾国家原油进口，同时增加了太阳能板、电动车等更可能以人民币结算商品的出口。换句话说，贸易结构本身正在为人民币创造更多使用场景。更深一层的逻辑在于，石油美元体系原本就在松动。中东石油现在主要卖给亚洲，而非美国；俄罗斯和伊朗受制裁的石油，也越来越多地绕开美元轨道进行交易。当前这场冲突，可能进一步暴露石油美元体系的裂缝，因为它同时动摇了市场对美国海湾地区安全保护伞稳定性的预期。

Part of the sudden rise in cross-border renminbi payments in March may have come from changes in trade flows. For example, China reduced imports of Gulf crude that are typically settled in dollars, while increasing exports of solar panels, electric vehicles, and other goods that are more likely to be settled in renminbi. Put differently, the trade structure itself is creating more use cases for the renminbi. At a deeper level, the petrodollar system was already loosening. Middle Eastern oil is now sold mainly to Asia rather than to the United States, and sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran is increasingly being traded outside the dollar orbit. The current conflict may further expose the cracks in the petrodollar system because it simultaneously weakens confidence in the stability of the U.S. security umbrella in the Gulf.

一个月的时间仍然太短，远不足以判断石油美元体系是否已经进入趋势性逆转。现阶段，仍然不能排除这些变化只是短期现象。不过，若油价冲击最终推动全球进一步从油气转向可再生能源，而这些新能源相关产品的供给又继续主要由亚洲制造商，尤其是中国制造商主导，那么人民币在国际层面的使用空间，可能会在贸易维度进一步扩大。换句话说，在这一轮冲击中，人民币国际化既可能受益于能源结算方式的变化，也可能受益于能源转型本身。

One month is still far too short to judge whether the petrodollar system has already entered a trend reversal. At this stage, it still cannot be ruled out that these changes are merely short-term phenomena. However, if the oil-price shock ultimately pushes the world further from hydrocarbons toward renewable energy, while supply in those new-energy products continues to be dominated by Asian manufacturers, especially Chinese manufacturers, then the renminbi's room for international use may widen further along the trade dimension. In other words, in this round of shock, renminbi internationalization may benefit both from changes in the way energy is settled and from the energy transition itself.

比地缘政治本身更重要的，是人民币在这一轮全球波动中的稳定性。真正让人民币国际化得以加速的核心条件，是人民币汇率和人民币利率在极端波动环境中的稳定表现。

More important than geopolitics itself is the renminbi's stability during this round of global volatility. The real core condition allowing renminbi internationalization to accelerate is the stable performance of the renminbi exchange rate and renminbi interest rates under an extreme-volatility environment.

图：人民币在这场冲突中的核心优势是稳定

Chart: The renminbi's core advantage in this conflict is stability

冲突爆发后，市场曾重新讨论“什么资产才算真正的安全资产”。黄金、日元、美债这些传统避险资产，在冲突初期其实都出现了价格波动甚至回撤，这使得很多投资人和企业开始重新定义安全资产的概念。人民币并没有大幅升值，但它的波动区间显著更窄，这在企业和机构看来反而更实用。人民币是二十国集团货币里最稳定的币种之一。虽然人民币在这次冲突中并不是对美元升值最多的货币，但人民币对美元的波动区间明显窄于其他主要货币。对真正做跨境结算和资产负债管理的企业来说，稳定性往往比短期升值更重要。

After the conflict broke out, the market reopened the discussion of what actually counts as a true safe asset. Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, the yen, and U.S. Treasuries all saw price volatility and even pullbacks in the initial phase of the conflict, causing many investors and corporates to rethink the definition of a safe asset. The renminbi did not appreciate sharply, but its trading range was materially narrower, and for corporates and institutions that was in fact more practical. The renminbi is one of the most stable currencies in the G20. Although it was not the currency that appreciated the most against the U.S. dollar during this conflict, its volatility range against the dollar was clearly narrower than that of other major currencies. For companies actually engaged in cross-border settlement and asset-liability management, stability is often more important than short-term appreciation.

第二个关于稳定性的证据来自利率。冲突期间，多数二十国集团国家的10年期国债收益率上升了30到50个基点，而中国10年期国债收益率几乎没有变化。这一点非常重要，因为它意味着，人民币资产在汇率和利率两个维度上都表现得更像一个低波动锚，从而提升了企业和金融机构使用人民币作为结算货币和融资货币的意愿。

The second piece of evidence on stability comes from interest rates. During the conflict, 10-year government-bond yields in most G20 economies rose by 30 to 50 basis points, while China's 10-year government-bond yield barely moved. This matters greatly because it means renminbi assets behaved more like a low-volatility anchor on both the FX side and the rates side, which in turn raises the willingness of corporates and financial institutions to use the renminbi as both a settlement currency and a funding currency.

图：伊朗战争期间，人民币利率几乎没有变化

Chart: During the Iran war, renminbi interest rates barely moved

同样，全球性意外冲击最容易压缩的，是借款人的融资窗口和融资确定性。相比之下，人民币市场在冲突期间运行平稳，这使得境外借款人更愿意将人民币债券市场视为可用的融资渠道，而不只是政策驱动下的选择。最直接的融资证据来自熊猫债。3月熊猫债发行达到380亿元，创下历史新高，同比接近增长两倍，较2025年月均发行量高出150%。这意味着，境外主体在岸人民币融资已经明显加速。离岸人民币债发行同样在放量。3月点心债发行达到1140亿元，同比增长173%，较2025年月均发行量高出约50%。这表明，无论在岸还是离岸，人民币债券融资都在同步提速。对于人民币国际化而言，这一点非常关键，因为若支付货币的国际化不能伴随其融资货币功能同步增强，其国际使用的可持续性就会受到约束。

Likewise, what global surprise shocks most easily compress is borrowers' funding window and funding certainty. By contrast, the renminbi market remained stable during the conflict, making overseas borrowers more willing to view the renminbi bond market as a usable funding channel rather than merely a policy-driven choice. The most direct funding evidence comes from panda bonds. March panda-bond issuance reached RMB 38 billion, a record high, nearly triple year on year and 150% above the 2025 average monthly issuance. That means onshore renminbi funding by foreign entities has already accelerated materially. Offshore renminbi bond issuance expanded at the same time. March dim-sum bond issuance reached RMB 114 billion, up 173% year on year and about 50% above the 2025 average monthly issuance. This shows that renminbi bond funding, onshore and offshore alike, is accelerating simultaneously. For renminbi internationalization, that is crucial, because if the internationalization of the payment currency is not matched by strengthening of its funding-currency function, the sustainability of its international use is constrained.

换句话说，人民币正在某种层面上成为一种安全资产。这里的含义不同于传统避险货币。它并不是说人民币一定会在危机中升值最多，而是说，在一个高波动的世界里，人民币提供了企业和机构最需要的两样东西：一条可预期的汇率路径，以及一个稳定的本币融资环境。

Put differently, the renminbi is, on some level, becoming a safe asset. The meaning here is different from that of a traditional haven currency. It does not mean the renminbi must appreciate the most during a crisis. It means that in a high-volatility world, the renminbi provides the two things corporates and institutions need most: a predictable exchange-rate path and a stable local-currency funding environment.

...

三、一些我在看的图表

III. Some charts I am watching

1/ 中国一季度增长更多由出口和投资驱动，居民消费端储蓄仍偏高，内需释放不足：

1/ China's first-quarter growth was driven more by exports and investment, while household savings remain elevated and domestic-demand release is still insufficient:

图：中国居民存款仍显著高于疫情前趋势线

Chart: Chinese household deposits remain materially above the pre-pandemic trend line

2/ 利率主线从伊朗转向Warsh：

2/ The rates narrative has shifted from Iran to Warsh:

图：来自Polymarket的定价变化

Chart: Pricing changes from Polymarket

3/ 当前盈利韧性的真正来源：

3/ The true source of current earnings resilience:

图：一季度盈利韧性仍然高度集中在Mag 7和少数结构性赢家身上

Chart: First-quarter earnings resilience remains heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 and a small number of structural winners

4/ 市场涨了很多，但仓位情况并不极端

4/ The market has risen a lot, but positioning is not extreme

图：还没有进入必须因拥挤而反向担忧的区间

Chart: It has not yet entered the zone where crowding alone creates a need for contrarian concern

...

全文完。

End of full text.

搭配使用的美股、A港和商品星球，涉及一些更多市场内的细节，内容持续完善中：

The companion U.S. equities, A/H shares, and commodities channels cover additional market detail and are still being continuously expanded:

美股：https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies

U.S. equities: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies

A港：https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies

A/H shares: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies

商品：https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies

Commodities: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies

注：文中一切内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不作为任何法律法规、监管政策的依据，投资者不应以该等信息作为决策依据或依赖该等信息。

Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.

Subscribe to 跨市场资产策略笔记