April twenty-seventh, two thousand twenty-five (250421-250427)
The only way to be right is to be right on time.
I We closed all our long gold positions this week and have closed nearly all of our dollar-related FX positions.(For your information, we also exited our USD/CHF and USD/JPY trades at a profit), although we still believe the broader thesis behind these trades will continue to play out..
Long gold, short the dollar, is destined to become a core conviction for a very long time to come.
(Everyone can try writing these eight underlined characters on a slip of paper and opening it a year later; it should be interesting.)
But, As macro traders, we would indeed not choose to continue going long gold and short the dollar here, even though these two trades are likely to be “right.”
The risk of taking profits early is that we may miss part of the move, but the benefit is greater flexibility in managing positions. For us, that flexibility is far more valuable than staying in positions during a period of risk, At this point, better opportunities are emerging in many other markets (Is anyone watching crude oil?), and we leave when the crowd gets too big.
To reiterate, this does not mean we think the move is over. It simply means that we believe we can re-enter at better prices and/or remain open-minded, going long or short as a new narrative unfolds.As for the second point, our sharp-eyed friends have probably already noticed,
Does the end of the gold bull trade mean the start of the B bull trade?A simple, direct answer: yes.
The entry and exit points for risk and position management are clear, so everyone can use them to practice.
Experience the appeal of cross-asset trading.
Chart: Another thing nobody is talking about
Just one brief point: something few people mention is (we can’t help it; we always like talking about things nobody else discusses)
As gold breaks out, Bitco has already decoupled from the broader crypto market.
——This also means a simple arbitrage strategy of going long Bitco and short everything else in crypto will probably perform very well for a long time. This is a bit micro-level, so I won’t say much more. I just know that many subscribers are institutions specializing in crypto assets, so here’s a little bonus.
Crypto investors are paying strong attention to macro now, and we hope our cross-asset perspective here can offer you a different viewpoint.
You can put it together yourself and observe it; this is also a structural turning point.
There is only one Bitco, and there will only ever be one.
There is only one Bitco, and there will only ever be one.
Third, a routine look at next week’s positioning:
1) It’s month-end, which means Companies are entering a peak period for foreign-currency purchases; watch dollar buying flows in early New York trading on Monday.
2) On Tuesday, there will be a U.S. consumer confidence index release, It could become a market-moving trading catalyst.As an aside, for selfish reasons, we also hope it will be.. Friends who are also subscribed to Deep Planet probably know what we’re waiting for...
If not that, then perhaps Friday’s US Jobs Report.. or key technology-stock earnings on Wednesday or Thursday..
In short, There will be many market-moving trading catalysts in U.S. stocks next week, and wider swings mean opportunities are emerging..
Note: Deep Planet will mirror our real-time U.S. dollar index trades (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=vega-trading）
Chart: The real-time trades will look something like this; the trade records are attached to the end of today’s Wrap, and they may not suit everyone!
On Wednesday, BOJ’s rate decision is the absolute focus(It is also one of the reasons we closed our profitable yen positions this week.)
Chart: Uncertainty is high; take the money you’ve made off the table
We’ll let the market make its move first.
Finally, five years ago today:
As the weekend comes to a close, wishing everyone reading this an enjoyable life and all the best in the coming week!
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Note: All content in this article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and is not a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for making decisions.