二零二六年四月十五日 April 15, 2026

《他们是真多头，我们只是“投机客”》

《They’re the real bulls. We’re just “speculators”》

Author: Ariston 微信：AristonMacro（添加请备注从业机构+姓名，无备注不会通过）

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一、他们是真多头，我们只是“投机客”：谈行动上的不得不和逻辑上的应该是

I. They're the real bulls, and we may just be “speculators”: on what is unavoidable in action versus what merely seems logical

图：一批内地市场指数

Chart: A group of mainland-market indices

发帖后，今日一批内地市场指数均如期出现疲弱回调：

After the post went up, a batch of mainland-market indices all saw the expected weak pullback today:

图：创业板指（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: ChiNext Index (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

图：深指（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: Shenzhen Index (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

回调预期不会下破黄线。

The expected pullback should not break below the yellow line.

...

昨天开帖子讲了下为什么我们从现在开始并不看（注意，是看，不是做）好以铜为代表的工业金属的逻辑，引发了部分朋友的不认同和应激式的反对（那些过于强烈的私信和反驳就不放在这里了），这些新多头似乎要比我们坚定的多，这在一定程度上是好事情，坚定持有方的存在可以为市场提供充分被动流动性，方便我们根据价格表现持续完成多空波段操作。

Yesterday I made a post explaining why, from this point onward, we are not constructive on industrial metals represented by copper from a viewing perspective, note, a view, not a trade. That triggered some disagreement and somewhat reactive opposition from a number of readers. I will not reproduce the more intense DMs and rebuttals here. These new bulls seem far more conviction-driven than we are, which is actually good to some extent. The presence of determined holders can provide the market with abundant passive liquidity, making it easier for us to continue executing long-short swing trades based on price action.

图：是的，我们仍然持有铜多单

Chart: Yes, we are still holding long copper positions

我们的工业金属押注起始于做多中国PPI转正，由负转正的过程是市场不得不完成价格波动的过程，这是我们眼中的基本面。广泛市场参与者的押注起始于PPI已经转正，这是他们的基本面。一定程度上，可能股市反应的确有概率如此（我们不否认任何一种价格走势），但是历史上成功的表现均起始于并未经过热炒的周期底部或中部，但这一轮不一样，至今，那些代理大多已经处于高位。

Our industrial-metals bet began with the long on China's PPI turning positive. That move from negative to positive was a process of price movement the market was forced to complete, and that is what we regard as the fundamental backdrop. The broader market's bet only began once PPI had already turned positive, and that is their fundamental backdrop. To some extent, equities may indeed still respond that way; we do not deny any possible price path. But historically, the successful phases began from cycle bottoms or mid-cycle points that had not yet been overheated. This round is different. By now, most of those proxies are already elevated.

图：历史上的PPI通胀周期

Chart: Historical PPI inflation cycles

此外，之所以转正是一个大背景下确信度从高转低的关键节点，主要原因在于，转正前的做多，是站在国家和人民群众的利益一边，因此内心可以无比坚决，但转正之后还期望价格可以一路上涨的人，则是和他们做对。

In addition, the reason turning positive is such a critical point where conviction falls from high to lower confidence in the broader framework is that going long before the turn means standing on the side of the country and the people, which allows for extremely firm conviction. But those who still expect prices to keep surging after the turn are effectively taking the other side.

前者是行动上的不得不，对美好生活的向往意味着转正的必然实现，这是我们从很早前就开始布局做多一篮子本土工业通胀的原因（详见此前notes和港龙星球的内地市场操作）；后者是逻辑上的应该是，人们喜欢逻辑，因为自己似乎能看懂，但现实世界的运行方式是，随着认为自己看懂的人越来越多，定价将趋于完全状态（随机波动），此时早已没有了宏观押注根本的确信前提，只剩下价格博弈本身，只剩下价格博弈本身的市场，可以做，但注定不是最优市场，最优市场永远是定价权一方有着不得不的市场，这是顺势而为。

The former is what is unavoidable in action: the aspiration for a better life makes that turn positive something bound to happen, and that is why we began building longs in a basket of domestic industrial inflation proxies quite early, as discussed in earlier notes and in the Honglong Planet's mainland-market operations. The latter is what merely seems logical: people like logic because it makes them feel they understand things, but the way the real world works is that as more people think they understand, pricing moves toward a fully priced, effectively random state. At that point the original conviction behind the macro bet is long gone, and only the price game itself remains. A market reduced to pure price gaming can still be traded, but it is not the optimal market. The optimal market is always one where the side with pricing power is forced to act. That is what following the trend really means.

图：观点是观点，价格是价格

Chart: A view is a view; price is price

1/ 观点是观点，价格是价格，基本面研究和交易是相互独立的两回事，大部分人的问题是认为自己有着拍板决定是骡子还是马的权力，但现实是我们并没有这么强大（至少我并没有这么强大），作为价格的接受者，我们可以有观点，但是到底是什么，是人家说了算的。

1/ A view is a view, price is price. Fundamental research and trading are two independent things. Most people's problem is that they think they have the authority to decide whether something is a mule or a horse, but in reality we are not that powerful, at least I am not. As price takers, we can have views, but what something ultimately is gets decided by others.

图：失败源于无法想象失败本身，是不安全感让我们安稳活到今天

Chart: Failure comes from being unable to imagine failure itself; it is insecurity that has helped us survive safely until today

2/ 所谓鱼头和鱼尾，（详见此前讨论https://t.zsxq.com/VYo0j）其实是早期发现者和大众发现者的两次基本面定价（发现）。客体“是什么”不重要，被谁发现了很重要。被看到才会被买卖。是骡子是马，要拉出来溜才有结果。

2/ The so-called fish head and fish tail, see the prior discussion at https://t.zsxq.com/VYo0j, are in fact two rounds of fundamental pricing or discovery, one by early discoverers and one by the mass market. What the object inherently is matters less than who has discovered it. Something has to be seen before it can be bought and sold. Whether it is a mule or a horse only becomes clear after it is brought out into the open.

我们没有拉出来的能力，只能1）通过作为系统一的基本面先主观判定骡子还是马，这个判定是无用之用，之所以无用，因为究竟是什么，我们说了不算，鹿和马，秦二世和赵高说了算，之所以归类为“用”，因为只有这个不行，没有这个同样不行；有限的时间和精力，要根据赔率概率的期望结果着重放在那些可能被当作马的候选者身上；2）通过作为系统二的资金流动和比价识别前兆和定价者行动的不得不，在第一时间发现异常，之所以异常很重要，因为如果一切“正常”，“异常”就不可能出现，一旦出现，往往是波幅扩大的主要方向；3）通过作为系统三的技术努力买/卖在鱼头和鱼尾两轮Swing的启动前，因为只有行动在启动前，才真正能做到安然是看波动，进退有据。

We do not have the ability to bring it out ourselves. We can only: 1) as system one, use fundamentals to make an initial subjective judgment about whether it is a mule or a horse. That judgment is a useful uselessness. It is useless because what it truly is is not for us to decide. Whether it is a deer or a horse is decided by Qin Er Shi and Zhao Gao. It is still useful because without it, nothing works either. Given limited time and energy, we need to focus on the candidates most likely to be treated as horses based on the expected outcome of odds and probability. 2) As system two, use capital flows and relative pricing to identify early signals and the unavoidable actions of the price-setters. The reason anomalies matter is that if everything were normal, anomalies could not appear. Once they do, they often point in the main direction of expanding volatility. 3) As system three, use technicals to work on buying and selling before the two swing phases of fish head and fish tail begin, because only action taken before the move starts can truly let us watch volatility calmly and advance or retreat with discipline.

3/ “是什么”的研究本身不直接决定买卖，也不决定价值和价格，作为买卖双方的主体介入，出价，达成交易，才决定价值和价格。这是市场逻辑。

3/ Research into what something is does not directly determine buying or selling, nor does it determine value or price. Value and price are determined when the subjects on both sides of the trade step in, make bids, and complete transactions. That is market logic.

图：GS把基础材料和能源放到超配

Chart: GS has moved basic materials and energy to overweight

在我们开始做多（全球股指/铜铝）的时候，那些现在新进的多头（包括高盛和一众BB本身）不知道在哪里。

When we began going long, on global indices and on copper and aluminum, these new bulls, including Goldman and a range of other bulge-bracket firms themselves, were nowhere to be seen.

图：他们才是真牛（多头），我们可能只是投机客

Chart: They are the real bulls; we may simply be speculators

图：铝（四小时图，截至260415）

Chart: Aluminum (4-hour chart, as of 2026-04-15)

CMX铝，03.20和03.27号两次强调至今铝价格已创新高；1）https://t.zsxq.com/pIht6，2）https://t.zsxq.com/p9wJn；The 240H take-profit for the long position has been raised to 3475.73.

CMX aluminum: since our two emphases on March 20 and March 27, aluminum prices have now made fresh highs. 1) https://t.zsxq.com/pIht6, 2) https://t.zsxq.com/p9wJn. The 240H take-profit for the long position has been raised to 3475.73.

图：铜（四小时图，截至260415）

Chart: Copper (4-hour chart, as of 2026-04-15)

CMX铜，take-profit levels for the long position on the 240H and 1D tranches have been raised to 6.04 and 5.97, respectively.

CMX copper: take-profit levels for the long position on the 240H and 1D tranches have been raised to 6.04 and 5.97, respectively.

图：SOX（四小时图，截至260415）

Chart: SOX (4-hour chart, as of 2026-04-15)

科技代理，As outlined in our market notes, with global markets turning higher again, tech will be the undisputed leader. Our SOX take-profit has now been raised to above 9039.

Tech proxy: as outlined in our market notes, with global markets turning higher again, tech will be the undisputed leader. Our SOX take-profit has now been raised above 9039.

图：NQ（四小时图，截至260415）

Chart: NQ (4-hour chart, as of 2026-04-15)

NQ +8% since re-entering longs，与https://t.zsxq.com/ZZE3j同样，再上行在这里需要先通过一次pullback完成蓄力。持续关注广泛成长篮子：https://www.meridianresearch.app/ariston/p/cc4da349-a7d7-4a1b-ad0e-da17810b09ac?ref=769bd1d1-1bdb-461a-89c9-e42c1ff5beeb。

NQ is up 8% since re-entering longs. As with https://www.meridianresearch.app/ariston/p/cc4da349-a7d7-4a1b-ad0e-da17810b09ac?ref=769bd1d1-1bdb-461a-89c9-e42c1ff5beeb, any further upside here first needs a pullback to build energy. Continue watching the broad growth basket: https://t.zsxq.com/lNbe6.

二、科技内部的新叙事：当关注重回博通、英伟达和模拟芯片

II. The new narrative inside tech: when attention shifts back to Broadcom, Nvidia, and analog semis

过去三到四周，华尔街头部买方的讨论明显重新回到了Broadcom、NVIDIA 和一批 analog semis上：

Over the past three to four weeks, discussions among top-tier Wall Street buy-side shops have clearly shifted back toward Broadcom, NVIDIA, and a group of analog semis:

图：AVGO（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: AVGO (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

对于Broadcom来说，其Google、Anthropic的合作信息，让市场对此前担忧的“客户自研芯片是否会挤压Broadcom”这件事没那么担心，这些合作让其在客户的增长里绑定得更深，长期路线图更清晰，另一层被重新关注的点是，如果HBM价格在下半年见底，那么利润率可能会出现底部支撑。

For Broadcom, the cooperation disclosures involving Google and Anthropic have made the market less worried about the earlier concern that in-house customer chip development might squeeze Broadcom. These partnerships bind it more deeply into customer growth and make its long-term roadmap clearer. Another point that has regained attention is that if HBM prices bottom in the second half, margins could also find a floor.

图：NVDA（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: NVDA (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

这种关注度的转折发生在财报季前，背后有两层原因：1）市场开始期待下半年会有更多 AI 相关公司的披露、甚至更清晰的盈利结构浮出水面，从而让大家更好判断AI链条里谁真正赚钱、利润分配怎么走，这个逻辑直接利好作为核心供应商的NVIDIA和Broadcom。2）网络设备和互连仍然被认为会是AI投资里的大故事，Broadcom和NVIDIA都不只是吃 compute，也吃networking，所以它们的逻辑其实同时受益于算力扩张和网络架构升级。

This turn in attention is happening ahead of earnings season, and there are two reasons behind it. 1) The market is beginning to expect more disclosures from AI-related companies in the second half, perhaps even a clearer picture of profit structure, which would help investors judge who is really making money in the AI chain and how profits are being distributed. That directly benefits core suppliers like NVIDIA and Broadcom. 2) Networking gear and interconnects are still seen as one of the major stories inside AI investment. Broadcom and NVIDIA are not only beneficiaries of compute; they also benefit from networking, so their logic is supported by both compute expansion and upgrades to network architecture.

图：ADL（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: ADI (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

一定程度上，新交易的背后还有一层逻辑是对它们未来从纯高成长故事，转向部分现金回报故事的预期。一个历史上的典型案例是Apple，本质上，如果市场开始把这类AI龙头视为既能增长、又能稳定回购和带来现金回报的超级平台，估值框架会进一步变化。

To some extent, another layer behind this new trade is the expectation that these names could evolve from pure high-growth stories into partial cash-return stories. A classic historical case is Apple. If the market starts to treat these AI leaders as super-platforms that can both grow and deliver steady buybacks and cash returns, the valuation framework will change further.

...

最后，关于模拟芯片，最关键的一点。过去市场先交易内存瓶颈和定价权，然后转到光模块/光互连，再转到CPU，现在开始有人关心模拟会不会是下一站。如果市场真的把模拟半导体重新定义成AI基础设施的潜在瓶颈环节，而不只是传统工业/汽车周期股，那板块的估值锚就会变化，财报季里的任何积极指引都更容易被放大。

Finally, on analog chips, the most important point is this: the market first traded the memory bottleneck and pricing power, then shifted to optical modules and optical interconnects, then to CPUs, and now some people are beginning to ask whether analog might be the next stop. If the market truly starts redefining analog semiconductors as a potential bottleneck within AI infrastructure rather than merely a traditional industrial and auto cyclical, then the sector's valuation anchor changes, and any positive guidance during earnings season becomes easier to amplify.

图：TXN（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: TXN (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

图：NXPI（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: NXPI (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

三、房价拐点？

III. Housing-price inflection point?

如果你有在港龙持续关注相对面板，你应该可以发现地产代理篮子在整个A港的面板里转为improving已经12 bars，对应的部分领头羊在绝对趋势面板也走出上行：

If you have been tracking the relative panel continuously in Honglong, you should have noticed that the property-proxy basket inside the broader A/H panel has been in improving status for 12 bars, and some of the leaders have also started to move up on the absolute-trend panel:

图：相对面板（截至260415）https://t.zsxq.com/NIGzs

Chart: Relative panel (as of 2026-04-15) https://t.zsxq.com/NIGzs

上涨背后主要由二手成交量的走强驱动。不愿意聊的原因是在我们自己的视角里，其仍然只能视作短期的交易性反弹，从更完整的基本面框架来看，目前的确还处在局部改善低点，无法证明地产已经进入趋势性拐点。

The rise has mainly been driven by stronger secondary-home transaction volumes. The reason I have not been eager to discuss it is that from our own perspective, this can still only be treated as a short-term trading rebound. Within a more complete fundamental framework, we are indeed still at a locally improved low point, but that is not enough to prove that property has entered a genuine trend inflection.

图：Real-Time Secondary Sales Volume Y/Y Growth (April Month-to-Date)

Chart: Real-Time Secondary Sales Volume Y/Y Growth (April month-to-date)

根据JPM的冰山指数，中国重点城市的4月月内实时二手成交同比增长36%，与此同时，官方网签数据也显示重点城市成交注册节奏不错，尤其是上海，但更重要的，是市场对4月末局会议政策预期的提前博弈。

According to JPM's iceberg index, real-time secondary-home transactions in China's major cities are up 36% year on year so far in April. At the same time, official registration data also show a decent transaction-registration rhythm in major cities, especially Shanghai. More importantly, though, the market is front-running policy expectations for the late-April Politburo meeting.

图：地产ETF南方（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: CSOP Property ETF (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

这种政策博弈不是不能做，我们也做过。老朋友们应该知道我们24年年中的那一轮地产押注，当时的理由同样不是基本面转好，而是市场的价格已经到了一个不得不干涉的地步...还是今天文章第一部分讲到的，行动上的不得不和逻辑上的应该是是两码事，对于博弈，我们只做前者，不做后者。

This kind of policy front-running is not untradeable; we have traded it before. Long-time readers should remember our property bet in mid-2024. The logic then was likewise not that fundamentals had improved, but that prices had already reached a point where intervention had become unavoidable. This goes back to the distinction from the first part of today's piece: what is unavoidable in action and what merely seems logical are not the same thing. In these tactical trades, we only do the former, never the latter.

今天的情况之所以不同，是因为在决策视角下，决策层进一步推出真正意义上的政策大拐弯是一个不太可能的情况，尤其是在实时数据出现见底的情况下，有形的手更加难以出现。

What makes today's situation different is that from the policy-maker's perspective, a truly major policy pivot is not very likely, especially when real-time data are already showing signs of stabilization. In that setting, the visible hand becomes even less likely to appear.

图：此前的数次会议前交易性反弹，大部分投机资金在博弈的是即将来临的会议

Chart: The earlier pre-meeting trading rebounds, where most speculative capital was front-running the coming meetings

同时，当前的市场定价区域其实已经说不上底部，如果只是单纯对基本面数据交易，可以看得到的上限，也就只是上图的黄线附近，这是一个看得见顶的事情，换句话说，对大部分资金（至少对我们）来说，都算不上是个很好的风险回报击球区域。

At the same time, the market's current pricing zone can no longer be described as a true bottom. If one is trading purely off fundamental data, the visible upside may only extend to roughly the yellow line in the chart above. In other words, the top is visible. Put differently, for most capital, and certainly for us, this is not a particularly attractive risk-reward hitting zone.

...

进一步讲，什么是真正的基本面转好？相互验证。量、价、库存三要素的相互验证，才最为重要，单一成交量是难以支撑大周期的转折的。就这个更完整的框架而言，价格仍然偏弱，一线城市二手挂牌价指数继续下行，库存去化也并不超乎预期（截至目前，一手库存去化周期仍在24个月左右，二手库存去化周期也高达18个月）...

Going one step further, what counts as a real improvement in fundamentals? Cross-validation. The mutual confirmation of volume, price, and inventory is what matters most. Transaction volume on its own is not enough to support a major-cycle turn. In that fuller framework, prices are still weak, asking-price indices for second-hand homes in top-tier cities continue to decline, and inventory digestion is not outperforming expectations either. As of now, first-hand inventory still has a digestion cycle of around 24 months, and second-hand inventory remains as high as 18 months...

这是我不愿意过早喊反转的重要原因。

That is the main reason I am unwilling to call a reversal too early.

量价量价，我更关注价格本身，因为量在一定程度上并没有很高的决策价值。

Volume and price, volume and price. I care more about price itself, because volume does not have that much decision value to me in many cases.

图：量好转不等于价已经见底，房价拐点尚未成立，挂牌价领先指标仍在走弱

Chart: Better volume does not mean prices have already bottomed; the housing-price inflection is not yet in place, and the leading indicator of asking prices is still weakening

图：价格拐点并未出现，这不是相互验证的真正底部

Chart: The price inflection has not appeared; this is not a genuinely cross-validated bottom

图：华润置地（周线图，截至260415）

Chart: China Resources Land (weekly chart, as of 2026-04-15)

图：华润万象生活（周线图，截至260415）

Chart: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (weekly chart, as of 2026-04-15)

四、美元：尝试构建新的交易区间

IV. U.S. dollar: trying to build a new trading range

不知道的人可能以为~~是我们在给美元画线~~（开个玩笑）：

People who do not know us might think we are just drawing random lines on the dollar, jokingly speaking:

图：美元指数（四小时图，截至260415）

Chart: U.S. Dollar Index (4-hour chart, as of 2026-04-15)

关于petroyuan可能成为美元新逆风的讨论在升温，如果中东和亚洲之间的能源结算越来越多绕开美元，那么在美元本身收益优势下降的背景下，会构成额外结构性压力。

Discussion is heating up around the idea that the petroyuan could become a new headwind for the dollar. If more energy settlement between the Middle East and Asia increasingly bypasses the dollar, then against a backdrop where the dollar's own yield advantage is declining, that could create an additional structural pressure.

我们在HL的地步开始做多，HH的顶部开始做空，全过程在星球都有留档同步。这里在那条一年多前就画出来的黑线得到支撑触发小B（下跌停滞）信号，这是在给区间找底。

We began going long around the HL area and started shorting near the HH top, and the entire process was documented in real time inside the Planet. Here, support at the black line that was drawn more than a year ago has triggered the small-B, meaning downside-stall, signal. This is the market trying to find a bottom for the range.

这里找到底的话，这条黑线和上面的红线就是美元未来数个月的区间顶底了。反之，跌破则将以黑线为新区间顶部，下方蓝线为新区间底部。

If a bottom is found here, then this black line and the red line above it will define the lower and upper bounds of the dollar's range over the coming months. If not, and the black line is broken, then the black line becomes the top of the new range and the blue line below becomes the lower bound.

五、从DAL视角看TDG

V. Looking at TDG through the DAL lens

下图是DAL MRO revenue YoY：

The chart below shows DAL MRO revenue year over year:

图：市场的真实运营需求很强

Chart: The market's real operating demand is strong

这里最早吸引我们注意的是DAL，这次非常强的维修业务结果，以及管理层对MRO趋势的正面评论，这是当前市场基本面最有说服力的现实信号之一，它提供是直接运营端和利润端的落地验证，这种交叉检验要比卖零部件和材料的人自己说自己很好要强得多。

What first caught our attention here was DAL: the very strong maintenance-business result this time and management's positive commentary on MRO trends. This is one of the most persuasive real-world signals of current market fundamentals because it provides direct validation from both operations and profits. That kind of cross-check is much stronger than parts and materials sellers simply saying that business is good.

与此同时，这一趋势实质性的得到了量价两端的支持（与前文的地产不同）：

At the same time, this trend is receiving substantive support from both volume and price, unlike the property case above:

图：How do you expect Current Q YoY volume growth to trend vs. Prior Q YoY volume?

Chart: How do you expect current-quarter YoY volume growth to trend versus prior-quarter YoY volume?

图：expect Current Q YoY price growth to trend vs. Prior Q YoY price?

Chart: How do you expect current-quarter YoY price growth to trend versus prior-quarter YoY price?

...

真正的交易代理，TDG，目前已经日级别空转多：

The true trading proxy, TDG, has now flipped from short to long on the daily timeframe:

图：TDG（日线图，截至260415）转多，止盈点移动至1200上方

Chart: TDG (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15), flipped long, with the take-profit moved above 1200

六、关于 MLCC 及其他被动元件的涨价

VI. On MLCC and price increases in other passive components

太阳诱电将从5月起上调部分MLCC、电感、电解电容价格，而且客户通知函中写得比较明确，原因是包含贵金属在内的多种原材料和构成部材价格上涨，涉及的产品线不只MLCC，也包括电感、RF器件、FBAR/SAW器件和部分铝电解电容。与此同时，村田制作所原本计划主要针对磁珠、功率电感、RF电感、共模滤波器等产品涨价，但由于MLCC产能处于满产状态，从4月1日起也同步上调了AI服务器和高端车载用MLCC的价格，涨幅达15%-35%。

Taiyo Yuden will raise prices from May on selected MLCCs, inductors, and electrolytic capacitors. The customer notification letter is fairly explicit that the reason is rising prices across multiple raw materials and component inputs, including precious metals. The affected product lines are not limited to MLCCs; they also include inductors, RF components, FBAR and SAW devices, and some aluminum electrolytic capacitors. At the same time, Murata Manufacturing had originally planned price hikes mainly for products such as ferrite beads, power inductors, RF inductors, and common-mode filters. But because MLCC capacity is already fully utilized, it also raised prices from April 1 on MLCCs used in AI servers and high-end automotive applications, with increases ranging from 15% to 35%.

图：针对MLCC的涨价说明

Chart: Explanation of the MLCC price increases

市场此前并没有把提价纳入预期，如果只看此前口径，多数资金原本接受的是26年中以后再讨论涨价，而到三月末，村田对外释放的信息仍然没有改变说法，这是一次意外调价。

The market had not previously priced in these hikes. If one went only by the earlier messaging, most capital had assumed that any discussion of price increases would not come until after mid-2026. Yet by the end of March, Murata's outward messaging still had not changed. This was an unexpected repricing event.

从供需逻辑看，AI 服务器和高端车载MLCC可能已经处在供给相对紧张的位置，至少对村田而言，满产本身已经足以支撑价格上调，换句话说，涨价如果属实，大概率是供需偏紧与成本上升共同作用的结果。更关键的是，村田的涨价对象是AI server和高端车载MLCC，这个细节很重要，这会让市场更容易相信涨价是产业结构变化下的局部议价权回归。

From a supply-demand perspective, MLCCs for AI servers and high-end automotive applications may already be in a relatively tight supply position. At least for Murata, full utilization alone is already enough to support price increases. In other words, if the price hikes are real, they are most likely the joint result of tight supply-demand conditions and rising costs. More importantly, the price increases are targeted at AI-server and high-end automotive MLCCs. That detail matters, because it makes it easier for the market to believe that the hikes reflect the return of localized pricing power under a changing industry structure.

图：村田（周线图，截至260415）

Chart: Murata (weekly chart, as of 2026-04-15)

图：太阳诱电（周线图，截至260415）

Chart: Taiyo Yuden (weekly chart, as of 2026-04-15)

图：相关篮子YTD表现（日线图，截至260415）

Chart: YTD performance of the related basket (daily chart, as of 2026-04-15)

总的来说，电子零部件板块里少数能同时拿到AI 曝光，供给偏紧和提价权的资产，的确在当前是个很稀缺的事情了。

Overall, assets within electronic components that can simultaneously offer AI exposure, tight supply, and pricing power are indeed very scarce in the current market.

...

全文完。

End of full text.

搭配使用的美股、A港和商品星球，涉及一些更多市场内的细节，内容持续完善中：

The companion U.S. equities, A/H shares, and commodities channels, which cover additional market detail, are still being continuously expanded:

美股：https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies

U.S. equities: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies

A港：https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies

A/H shares: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies

商品：https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies

Commodities: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies

注：文中一切内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不作为任何法律法规、监管政策的依据，投资者不应以该等信息作为决策依据或依赖该等信息。

Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.

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