June eighth, two thousand twenty-five (250602-250608)
The labor market is cooling, but much more slowly than the market had previously expected.
The most important signal for the Federal Reserve is the unemployment rate. But the constraints on Fed action are not limited to the data’s results; the process by which the data are produced is also becoming increasingly complex.
The chart above comes from 250529’s Notes, where we described the following picture:
1）Low unemployment; 2) hiring slows; 3) growth stagnates
According to the latest data, U.S. private-sector job gains are currently around 15 thousand per month, below the average for the past 10 years, It is slowing, but overall it is close to the weak pre-pandemic periods (the years 16 or 19)...
However, From an individual perspective, it is becoming steadily harder for unemployed people in the United States to find work...
Meanwhile, net entries across the U.S. western border have plunged from 20 ten thousand per month to 1.2 ten thousand. Immigrants with legal work authorization expand the total U.S. labor force; likewise, A tightening of labor supply naturally also makes it harder for the unemployment rate to fall. In other words, both supply and demand are weakening at the same time, and this This simultaneous weakening means that the reality the Federal Reserve faces when weighing labor-market data is far more complex than the data results suggest.。
It may take monthly job gains falling below 10 ten thousand to push the unemployment rate higher.
The previous case like this was the United Kingdom after Brexit:
Restrictions on net migration directly caused many workers to lose legal eligibility to work, wages rose, and unemployment-rate fluctuations were suppressed, but aggregate demand continued to slow, ultimately creating a stagflationary economic environment.
Chart: Notes 250528—the focus may be fiscal rather than monetary
Cross-asset weekly review (250608)
1) TLT, SPX, and USDX
Chart: TLT, the U.S. Dollar Index, and SPX in a state of divergence
Against Our bearish view on U.S. equity indices is unchanged, but short-term momentum is strong; we’ll look for an opportunity to go short later.
Below 100 on the U.S. Dollar Index, For foreign exchange, the key pairs to watch are EUR and CHF.
2) Gold (silver added starting this week)
Chart: Continuing to contend around three key levels
Since we exited at the top, gold has moved sideways ever since.
The duration of a consolidation is unpredictable. The market follows random fluctuations and is entirely swept up by news and headlines, so there is no certainty. There is no good trading opportunity at present, so we will not act.
Starting this week, silver prices will also be monitored.
Silver has broken through its highest price in more than a decade and held on to its gains, meaning that all short positions face margin calls, The low on day 4 of 4 (the yellow circle on the chart) is interesting because it represents an extreme round of long liquidation, essentially washing out all the weak-handed capital in the market...
This pattern has been validated by the market many times, and when it succeeds, the subsequent move is generally stronger and better, much stronger than the usual inertial pressure from shorts.
Chart: Silver’s rise
For investors holding hedged gold positions, it is actually beneficial for gold to remain within its consolidation range, but silver’s sharp surge now will disrupt the capital structure of the gold market and the stability of arbitrage trades, making the situation relatively uncomfortable.
If we have to look at it, and only make a near-term assessment,
the next opportunity to enter gold may have to wait until silver and platinum have completed a full trading cycle.
3）Bitco
The previous assessment was that after ATH Without confirmation across asset classes, the actual high may not be far away...
So we did not add to the trading position after the breakout at the time (see the previous Wrap for details),
“Just keep holding the core position and lean toward exiting once it reaches the level.”
Chart: Exited
The fact is, the market did not complete a successful breakout, This trade had already been closed when the price returned to the upper boundary.
Unleveraged spot 25%; that’s all for now.
4）EURUSD、USDJPY、USDCHF
Chart: EURUSD
Since we exited at the top, it has continued to move sideways within a range.
EUR is the best currency pair to trade, and one can buy dips within the range (provided the U.S. Dollar Index is below 100); feel free to adjust according to your preferences.
Enter on a breakout.
Chart: USDJPY, gold (inverted), and SPX
Equities, currencies, and gold are all one and the same.
Look for an opportunity to short U.S. stocks.
Chart: USDCHF
Let’s also update the key prices for CHF.Those in a hurry can short at the upper boundary, with the blue line as the stop-loss.......
5）Oil
I’ve posted a lot about oil on Planet. After our previous short position was stopped out for a profit, the market kept moving in the opposite direction from our view. There’s also one unusual thing: over the past two weeks, almost all The narratives of mainstream news media have all supported oil prices, whether in coverage of Iran, Russia-Ukraine, or news about OPEC(This is actually quite unusual)。
We remain firmly bearish。
The upper boundary will most likely be broken. It is frustrating that our view and the price do not align; even more frustrating is that, from a purely chart-based perspective, an extremely powerful bullish pattern is forming in the market right now... A good number of technical traders are likely to become our counterparties, and they have already entered the market...
A delicate balance often foreshadows dangerous volatility.
6）Platinum
This week’s platinum action confirmed our view from 3 weeks ago: 1) The longer gold stays above 3000 dollars, the higher platinum’s floor moves; 2) The less attention the tariff narrative receives, the less resistance there is to a platinum breakout; 3) The top of the range is 1100, and a breakout is a viable entry point
The logic behind entering this trade is actually more important than how much money it makes. It involves the changing weight of different factors in trading decisions: when to put a chart on the watchlist, when to wait for price confirmation, and when to actually enter, and if you haven’t read it, be sure to go back and do so. See Notes 250605 on the platinum breakout and the trade-screening process.
Chart: Breakout
The target price has also been updated, with the preliminary level set at 1250; other related trading proxies are also in the original Notes.
However, a reminder is in order, short-term indicators show that the market is in fact severely overbought, so an initial pullback would also be reasonable.
The weekend is over. I hope everyone reading this has a pleasant time and that everything goes smoothly in the new week!
If you’ve read this far, leave a like to let us know!
Note: All content in this article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and is not a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for decision-making.