May eleventh, two thousand twenty-five (250505-250511)
This weekend is a somewhat ambiguous point in time, and the talks produced no result. But as we expected, the date when tariffs turn may not be far off. We’ll explain the specific reasons in the Notes early next week.
1）Bitcoin position and gold
After entering a core position based on cross-asset logic and adding to it once the uptrend was confirmed, price moved into the top of the rectangle. Everyone should have made a comfortable profit.
Chart: Bitcoin position
In addition, the market has once again confirmed our thesis on the gold top zone:
Chart: After reaching the expected level, it was knocked back again; after the pullback, 3300 provided precise support
Chart: If you’re new, remember to catch up on the previous Notes, working backward from the latest; prioritize the newer ones
However, Since gold has touched the top zone again, our consistency principle naturally calls for a risk warning on the Bitcoin position.
Chart: Four rectangles
Simply put: 1) the position has reached the top of the range; 2) it has also reached a level of strong demand for ATH; 3) add the gold risk warning; 4) the talks; 5) as we expect, the date of a turn in tariffs may not be far off
So we will close out and reduce the position while waiting for ATH confirmation; we’ll look at the specifics next week, The only thing we can say with certainty is that trading volume will increase... As we’ve said before, Bitcoin, gold, U.S. stocks, and the foreign-exchange market all come down to the same thing. The point when volatility in U.S. stocks expands is not far off either.
2) Answering how we draw charts
Some people are curious about how we draw charts, so here’s a general answer: we don’t use any complicated technical methods, just simple horizontal lines + Volume spike, Effective things are not complicated. The only powerful price level is a horizontal line, because that is reality (only the boundary lines reflect the reality of large buying and selling in the market).
3) Another simple update: EURUSD
Chart: Although we’re tired of saying it, the market continues to trade within the forecast range
There are some things we no longer dare to post on public platforms. A few days ago, our public account received a batch of comments saying we were even better than Trump at “winning,” and that we’d already attracted envy, In fact, we have never felt “smug” about being right in our views. On the contrary, it is precisely because we know no one can beat the market that Every time, what we actually feel is fear. We are never happy to be right; we are afraid, and grateful that the few skills we have let us survive.
We are very afraid of being right. In the market, no one has a crystal ball and no one can beat the market; neither do we. We miss things too, and we are often very wrong. Strict risk management is what has kept us from dying, at least. That is our value system, whether you agree with it or not; at least we have made it clear here.
We’re just trying to earn a living carefully in front of Mr. Market.
4) Another simple update: USDJPY
Chart: The foreign-exchange, stock, and gold markets are all one and the same
5) Another simple update: S&P
Chart: Downside confirmation failed
The blue line here marks the U.S. Dollar Index (left axis), not SPX, so don’t confuse the two. The blue line touched the level twice but did not break lower; downside confirmation failed. That is the logic.
6）Another simple update: oil
Chart: The market knocked us out
The market hit the trailing take-profit level on our oil position and stopped us out.Because the downward revision happened much faster than expected, the holding period for this position became unusually short, But that is normal for oil trading, In this asset, most price action tends to get priced in all at once during a few key days.Overall, our fundamental view is unchanged: we still expect downside and will re-enter at a better price.
7）Another simple update: India
Chart: See this in conjunction with this week’s Notes
We specifically discussed India in this week’s Notes, including the issue of trading groups. See Notes250508 The core trading groups in the India–Pakistan conflict and regional geopolitical events: one of the fundamentals of understanding the counterparty (whose money you’re making)
The titles of our midweek Notes have been getting rather long lately, and I owe everyone an apology.
Mainly because I really struggle to come up with a title, so I use plain language. At least that makes it easier for everyone to look back later: the title alone will quickly bring to mind roughly what the content covers, I see its purpose more as a quick index than as a title.
Chart: A view from a shorter time frame
For event-driven trades or trades at the edges of a rectangle, it is interesting to look at them from a shorter time frame, and I recommend taking a look when you have time. This is much more useful than reading many technical-analysis books or courses.
On the one hand, it is about understanding the power of horizontal lines (a refresher: to us, the only truly real thing is a horizontal line); on the other hand, The market produces hundreds of thousands of candlesticks every day, and 99.999% of them are meaningless. They all follow the random-walk theory of a perfectly efficient market. What we need to practice is finding the key candlesticks the ability to do so; most of the time, only those 1-2 bars truly determine the market, are predictable, and have substantive significance.
The weekend is over. Wishing everyone reading this a happy life and all the best for the new week!
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Note: All content in this article is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for their decisions.