June fifteenth, two thousand twenty-five (250609-250615)
A quiet week ended with missile strikes, This to some extent answered the central question that had troubled us over the past month(the source of our frustration), during a period when oil prices(when they at least should not have been rising)prices kept moving higher (all mainstream information channels were also pushing prices higher with unusual unanimity)... and, at the end of last week, real money had painted an extremely bullish pattern:
Chart: Our discussion of oil in last weekend’s Wrap (250608),pointing out that an extremely powerful bullish pattern was forming and that the upper boundary would likely be broken; a delicate balance often signals dangerous volatility, and technical traders entered
Chart: As usual, the observation price we posted on the Planet (65) is a key structural turning point for the market
The Sunday Wrap was published, and on Monday the price broke through the observation price as expected. On Wednesday, when the price returned to 65, news that Iran was threatening to attack U.S. military bases went straight to the front pages of major U.S. financial newspapers. After that, everyone knows what happened: missiles and oil prices took off together, Compared with the missile trade in 10 of last year, it was practically the exact same script.
Chart: Almost a replay of 24 10
We did not understand this trade, and our capital mandate did not allow it, so we did not take it; we only discussed it.
Some friends on the Planet saw last week’s Wrap chart outlook and entered trades (surprisingly, there are quite a few chart traders on the Planet), then sent private messages to thank us. There is no need for that, All the returns you receive come from the risks you take yourself and have nothing to do with us. We provide only some additional perspectives. You are always in charge of your own trading; any profits are your own achievement.
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Sudden events trigger fear, and market prices are determined to a large extent by people’s immediate actions. This is particularly evident in oil trading, as discussed in Weekly Wrap 250511:For this asset, most of the move is often priced in during a few key days.
Uncertainty can be priced with a great deal of imagination, while the worst-case scenario rarely happens. Looking back, after shock trades triggered by geopolitical conflicts, downplaying the event’s impact has often been the right move; reason eventually prevails.
Looking at the structure, Brent futures rose only 1% in 28 12, clearly showing that the market did not expect Middle East risks to drive oil prices persistently higher. U.S. inflation markets also showed no clear reaction: the 2 breakeven rose 7bp, while the 10-year tenor rose only 2bp..
Cross-Asset Weekly Review (250615)
1) TLT, SPX and USDX
Chart: TLT, the U.S. Dollar Index, and SPX in a state of divergence
As for Our bearish view on U.S. equity indices is unchanged, although short-term momentum is strong; we will look for an opportunity to open short positions later.
Below 100 on the U.S. Dollar Index, In the FX market, the key pairs to watch are EUR and CHF.
2) Gold, silver, platinum
Chart: Back again at 3438
As we wrote in last week’s Wrap, the next opportunity to enter gold may have to wait until silver and platinum have each completed a full trade cycle.
Chart: Gold overlaid with platinum; the platinum peak is the gold breakout point
We did not trade silver, only platinum, which has already reached its target and been sold, The gold breakout and platinum pullback confirm each other; we will initially take a small position in gold, and once platinum pulls back to this breakout point from the latest rise, we will consider adding to our gold position。
Chart: Platinum and related positions (mentioned earlier) reached their target prices and were sold
3）Bitco
The previous view was that, after ATH Without cross-asset confirmation, the actual high might not be far away..
So we did not add to the trading position after the breakout at the time, and also sold at the target price. (See the previous Wrap for details.)
Chart: Position exited
Since we exited at our target price, Bitco has repeatedly failed to break out and has been moving sideways ever since，
It is still oscillating around our exit target price...
4）EURUSD、USDJPY、USDCHF
Below 100 on the U.S. Dollar Index, In the FX market, the key pairs to watch are EUR and CHF.
Enter on the breakout.
Chart: EURUSD
Chart: USDCHF
We are already holding EUR; the entry point for CHF is not far away (if you are impatient to trade, see last week’s Wrap); we will leave JPY alone for now and wait for gold.
Chart: USDJPY, gold (inverted), and SPX
5）Oil
We remain firmly bearish...However, periods of high volatility are never good times to enter,
The one thing the oil market never disappoints in is never disappointing.. and those who argue from logic are often hurt the most.
We will keep watching.
A delicate balance often signals dangerous volatility (which has already arrived).
The weekend is over. Wishing everyone reading this a happy life and all the best in the new week!
If you made it this far, give us a like so we know!
Note: All content in this article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and is not a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for their decisions.