April twenty-first, twenty twenty-five to April twenty-fifth, twenty twenty-five

I. Foundation

resistance to change and hence greater dependability for the results shown in the past.

An Introduction to Dollar Demand: Four Types of Holders and Their Structural Changes

To understand the dollar, we must first truly understand demand for the dollar, and this is also the foundation for all the discussions that follow.

The first key group of dollar holders is traditionally energy exporters, or petrodollar holders.This portion is held by resource-rich countries, which sell energy priced in dollars and recycle the dollars by investing in U.S. assets.

There are two structural changes taking place here.First, the United States is steadily expanding domestic capacity and has become a major energy exporter, with net energy exports rising year by year, which is also why the trading paradigm for the dollar, natural gas, and oil pairings has shifted, from this perspective, the recycling of dollars will show a clear downward trend, Former energy exporters no longer have an incentive to recycle their dollar revenues into the U.S. Treasury system, especially against a backdrop of “customers becoming competitors.”We are discussing structural trends here, not shock events.Second, there is sanctions risk, for example, the Iran issue from the third and fourth quarters of last year through the first quarter of this year, Sanctions risk raises the political cost of being tied to the dollar, and this is also a structural factor that will lead energy-producing countries to reduce their dollar holdings.

The second key group of dollar holders is trade dollars, which reinvest the dollars after exporting goods to the United States. The recycling mechanism for trade dollars is also breaking down. On the one hand, the tariff structure has changed the income structure of non-U.S. trading partners income structure, while on the other hand, part of dollar revenues is converted into tax revenue for the U.S. Treasury, leaving non-U.S. countries have a smaller base of dollars available for recycling。

The third key group of holders comes from third-country trade settlement within the international trading system, held to facilitate settlement, with most funds sitting in dollar pools. Systems such as mBridge, BRICS Pay are becoming more cost-effective than USD channels at improving certainty and avoiding sanctions risk.

The fourth key group of holders consists of foreign central banks, which accumulate dollars mainly as foreign exchange reserves. Sanctions risk and expectations of dollar depreciation are prompting central banks around the world to diversify their reserves, a topic we have already discussed at length, including gold.

2025.04.23

The Reserve Currency Cycle: The Dollar in 1970

Historically, the full adjustment mechanism for a hegemonic currency can be divided into roughly six stages:1) a strong reserve currency; 2) persistent trade deficits; 3) declining relative wealth; 4) weakening confidence in the currency; 5) deliberate policy devaluation; 6) rebalancing

The current stage the dollar is entering is very similar to the fourth stage in a typical reserve currency cycle, The pattern is highly consistent with the period before the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in the 1970s:

After World War II, the United States held more than half of the world’s official gold reserves (5.74 hundred million ounces). Countries agreed to the Bretton Woods system, settling international accounts in dollars and pegging the dollar to gold at 35 dollars per ounce, ushering in the peak period of a strong reserve currency.

Under the Marshall Plan, Japan and Europe rebuilt after World War II. Countries outside the United States needed dollars to buy U.S.-made goods such as cars, steel, and machinery. The U.S. current account surplus peaked in 1964 and turned into a deficit by 1970, The second stage of the reserve currency cycle arrived.

The U.S. share of GDP was 40% in 1960, but had fallen to 36% by 1970. In 1966, central banks outside the United States held 140 hundred million dollars, while U.S. gold reserves had dwindled to just 130 hundred million. Relative wealth declined year after year. Later, the Vietnam War widened the U.S. fiscal deficit, and in 1965 France announced that it would convert dollars into gold, By 1968, the United States could no longer uphold its commitment to the London Gold Pool, and confidence in the currency was shaken.

In 1971, Nixon announced the end of dollar convertibility into gold. From 1971 to 73, USDJPY fell from 358 to 255, and USDDEM fell from 3.63 to 2.33.In 1972, the U.S. current account deficit as a share of GDP was 0.45%; in 1974 it turned into a surplus of 0.58%.In 1974, the “petrodollar agreement” was signed with Saudi Arabia. From then on, the dollar regained confidence as the world’s reserve currency and rebuilt its standing.

Chart: An analogy-based projection of the current cycle

Looking back at the 1970s, from 1970 to 72, Nixon after suspending the gold standard, the dollar plunged, the yen and the German mark appreciated against the dollar by 12% and 10%, respectively; the Federal Reserve initially cut rates, gold surged and silver fell, U.S. equities showed mixed performance, dollar depreciation caused losses for foreign holders, and the current account continued to deteriorate to -0.45% of GDP.

In 1973–74, the Arab oil embargo triggered a surge in oil prices, the United States entered stagflationary recession, gold, silver, and commodities performed strongly, and the S&P 500 plunged.Despite aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, the dollar continued to depreciate. The current account turned to a surplus in the third quarter of 1973 and continued to improve toward the end of 1975.

After the dollar was untethered from gold, it went through several years of high inflation, capital flight, and a widening current account deficit. It was not until 1974, when an “oil-dollar agreement” was reached with Saudi Arabia, that the global dollar-circulation mechanism was reanchored and confidence restored.In the current cycle, the dollar fell from DXY at the start of the year and continued to weaken after tariffs were announced on 4 2. This reflects a systematic repricing of US exceptionalism, or the fourth stage of weakening confidence in the currency.

2025.04.24

II. Insights

Our Viewpoints and ideas on market.

Returning to the foreign exchange market and filling in a key question that drives FX trading (a brief answer to why technical analysis also requires an understanding of macroeconomics, and why charts are not drawn at random)

Doubts about the dollar’s dominant position as the global reserve currency are becoming one of the central topics in current market discussions. Although the dollar’s use remains higher than that of all other major reserve currencies(including the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, renminbi, euro, pound sterling, yen, and Swiss franc) combined, but alternatives represented by gold or baskets of multiple currencies are rising significantly.

This is another pivotal week, on the one hand, the market is nearing its tolerance limit for intervention in major currencies, while the upcoming IMF meeting is expected to focus on concerns about U.S. Treasuries, including Federal Reserve independence, debates over fiscal spending and taxes, dollar valuation, and cross-border investors’ willingness to allocate capital to U.S. assets.

Last week, the market’s focus shifted from fixed income to equities, partly because of Q1 earnings and the Q2 outlook, but With trade negotiations with Japan and other countries coinciding with the IMF meeting, the focus will return to the dollar and the global foreign exchange market itself (gold trading is also foreign exchange trading: it is directly matched against the world’s sovereign fiat currencies, a point we have emphasized repeatedly in the Planet) (gold, sovereign fiat currencies / FX, and cryptocurrencies are essentially part of the same trading pair)

Related reading: Notes 250421 The Divergence Between Bitcoin and Gold: Starting with Zoltan’s View

Chart: Peter’s prediction from a week ago is becoming reality

Related reading: Weekly Wrap 250420

Finally, a brief additional point about FX trading:Another key is understanding which currency is the dominant, price-setting currency in a currency pair, this is the primary starting point for analysis and is useful not only for macro strategy judgments, but can also help people in the Planet who are relatively skilled at using technical and chart analysis, which is why we often bring this up: why even if you are a pure tech boy, you should still understand some basic macro concepts before entering a trade..

Here is an example that I hope will help:

The New Zealand dollar has just completed a classic but relatively rare broadening reversal pattern, This pattern almost always appears at a top rather than a bottom (a straightforward, textbook-style technical analysis principle: the same pattern has different meanings and probabilities in different trading ranges or positions; this is added here for readers who do not use technical analysis).

What needs to be noted here is that in this currency pair, the U.S. dollar is the dominant currency. Therefore, if it is expressed and charted as USD/NZD, it actually corresponds to a top...which means greater certainty...In such a situation, charting is not a matter of forming an opinion first and then using a pattern to “prove yourself right”; where it should be drawn is fixed!

This is also where technical analysis often goes wrong: the same setup,

if you want to draw it, you first need to know which chart to draw it on.

Only then should you discuss the so-called pattern and positional probabilities.

2025.04.21

Why the decline in U.S. equities is far from over

First, at least based on what we can see now, the U.S. equity market is nowhere near a true bottom，Neither of the two key features is present: 1) flush-out capitulation + 2) extreme excess buy flow. It is indeed far too early to say that the decline is over., Within the medium-term trading range, we will continue to maintain a structurally short position (specific live U.S. index futures trades will be posted in 深度星球 at the same time, with Sean at the helm/https://t.zsxq.com/BQ9eD), and those willing to take the other side of our trades, please step forward.

This U.S. equity pullback is the fourth time since 2018 that SPX has undergone a major correction of more than 15%,The first three occurred on 2018 12 24, 2020 3 23, and 2022 10 11, and the bottoms of these three rounds (including all previous market bottoms) shared the same market trading characteristics:

Every genuine bottom goes through a sharp selloff + extreme net buying (flush-out capitulation + multi-sigma buy flow), rather than a “soft landing” rebound brought on by policy news. Everyone should keep this sentence firmly in mind!

Chart: A positioning brief we previously published on the U.S. equities Planet (https://t.zsxq.com/ob7TH）

It was made very clear, the market is at its pain threshold, and so-called U.S. politicians are also at their pain threshold, which means that all news is bound to lean upward, so there is no need to wait for the news content, because both the outcome and the way it is presented are predictable. Once prices move into a certain range, the corresponding news will naturally follow.。

Either go long before the news and hold until it is released, or go short after the news has been absorbed. Since this round of sharp selling began, every swing has followed this pattern without exception. You can review the market action yourself.

If we want to quantify a bottom, we should refer to how the market behaved at previous bottoms, 1) a major selloff; 2) an intraday rebound of at least +5% after the selloff; 3) the rebound is accompanied by extreme excess net inflows (2018 year 12 month 26 day: +840 hundred million dollars; 2020 year 3 month 24 day: +1450 hundred million dollars; 2022 year 10 month 13 day: +1440 hundred million dollars).

To reiterate: a washout selloff + extreme net buying.

A bottom is not triggered by good news; it is necessarily the result of market participants running out of sellers.

The 4-month 9 purchase of 5370 hundred million dollars was, in essence, low-quality capital briefly lured into the market by the “tariff delay” news, rather than value buying after a “panic-driven washout.”What is more, the news actually induced speculative longs with little conviction and forced shorts to cover, making the current market structure more fragile. This is another reason we have greater confidence in our view that there will be further downside over the medium term.

Systematic strategy funds (CTA, Risk Parity, Risk Control..) were still the first to sell in this round, but the real pain is only just beginning, Because the subsequent exit of slow-moving capital is the key factor that truly destroys valuations. Unwind frequency and intensity are now clearly below those of previous rounds; the next phase may bring more concentrated passive deleveraging.

Retail investors have not yet reached the stage of genuine “panic”—at the lows on 2018年12月26日, 2020年3月24日, and 2022年10月13日, there was clear “buy the dip” behavior, but For now, this is still mainly about buying the dip. As in the previous three rounds, the true bottom did not come when retail investors were buying the dip; it will come only when they begin to engage in concentrated “panic selling.”

Options data also show a typical flawed structure, reflecting a low-conviction bullish thesis driven by “fear of missing out” rather than a “willingness to endure drawdowns.”Add to that the dollar index -8.5% since the start of the year: foreign capital will flow back into domestic-currency assets, and most of the funds that bought U.S. stocks in large quantities last year ETF are now sitting on losses—the simultaneous pressure on the dollar and U.S. stocks is only just beginning.

Stay patient and wait for the flush-out, but it really won’t happen quickly, so don’t be in too much of a hurry.

For now, we need at least a break below 4.7’s News pivot before discussing anything else, A breakdown is certain; the market won’t panic unless it breaks down (just like you), so it will definitely break down. If you are Mr. Market himself, how could you possibly beat yourself?

Today I’ll discuss just this one point, and leave time for everyone to review and do their homework. When there are no fish to catch, get more rest and spend more time with your family.

2025.04.22

Why the de-dollarization theme has nothing to do with the renminbi

De-dollarization is widely discussed in the market, and selling the dollar works across many currency pairs (as in several of the FX trades we made), but it needs to be made clear here, This theme has nothing to do with trading the renminbi.

This is also why, in Notes250417 How to fully break out of deflation: A discussion of this cycle’s Chinese government bonds and RMB-denominated gold, the PBOC’s true operational main line, and another possibility for gold’s rise (including a forecast target price)This is another reason for the point made in this article: “The key is not the RMB–U.S. dollar exchange rate; what matters is the change in the RMB’s value relative to real assets.”

The de-dollarization theme in FX pairs primarily relies on three transmission channels:

1）Buyers reduce their allocation to foreign assets, causing FX demand to drop suddenly(Not applicable to China, since it had not been continuously increasing its Treasury holdings in the first place); 2)Increase dollar hedging, sell dollars forward(This may be underway, driven mainly by hedging by state-owned banks and companies, though the impact is limited); 3)A broad shift from U.S. assets to non-U.S. assets, DXY declining and exerting indirect pressure through exchange-rate correlations(At present, this is actually the most applicable of the three.)

To elaborate, China’s wave of reductions in U.S. assets actually began in 15. 15-19 was the year of foreign-exchange intervention to hedge against RMB depreciation. After 22, although the size of foreign-exchange reserves remained stable, reductions continued. Today, a breakdown of the reductions shows they have mainly been in U.S. stocks and U.S. agency bonds, rather than U.S. Treasuries, reflecting a strategic avoidance of risk assets. This is also why the first, shock-driven reduction thesis does not hold, Because China had not been continuously increasing its Treasury holdings over the past several years, there was no sharp, sudden decline path to begin with.. Other countries were slower than we were to act, which is why that effect would occur.

Second, dollar hedging is indeed underway, but it is more a matter of passive hedging demand, stemming from liquidity management by companies and some policy-oriented entities rather than active shorting of the dollar, so it also does not hold for the RMB–USD trading pair and does not constitute a core shock factor.

Finally, the global allocation of capital is shifting from U.S. assets to non-U.S. assets, causing DXY to decline and, through correlations, “pushing down” the RMB exchange rate. This is actually the most applicable explanation at present and is clearly the overall trading logic so far this year.

This also helps explain why, despite mounting fundamental pressures, the year-to-date gains in USD/CNY have remained limited; RMB–USD trading has in fact not become unanchored. Instead, depreciation pressure has been released through relative weakness against the euro and yen: the renminbi has weakened markedly against the euro and yen, and the CFETS RMB index has also continued to decline recently.

2025.04.23

If Gold Starts Correcting: How We Anticipated This Week’s Failed Gold Breakout, Applying the Zoltan Perspective in Real Time + A Discussion of Correction Trading Strategies (How to Hunt Algorithms)

We are in Notes250417: How to Fully Escape Deflation: A Discussion of This Cycle’s Chinese Government Bonds and Renminbi-Denominated Gold, the PBOC’s True Operational Focus, and Another Possibility for Gold’s Rise (Including a Forecast Target Price)In it, we estimated the target price for this round of gold’s rise; in the Notes that day, we presented two core conclusions:

1）The topping range will be between 3438 and -3727 points

2）Before officially entering the top range, there will first be a pullback, followed by a climactic spike higher

It is quite a coincidence that, during trading over these two days, the market did indeed show an anomaly after entering the 3438 point...

Note: This is not the point at which we sold, We don't have a crystal ball, and we certainly can't manipulate a gold market with trading flows this enormous! We only made the calculation based on basic logic and simple triangular conversion, following the main thread of macro pricing; we can also be wrong.

This also means that, if the estimate is accurate, we will officially confirm the start of the corrective pullback...

Chart: Around the level in the top range that we estimated (around 3438), gold saw an abnormal long-side squeeze trade attempt a breakout and fail (according to our calculations, It was indeed supposed to fail, and it did fail）

After that, gold turned lower

Chart: Some readers may prefer candlestick charts, our calculation corresponds exactly to the candle body after the failed breakout

Behind the candlesticks, let's also take a close look here at the flow of trading in gold during this attempt to break through the top range.

GLD trading was exceptionally active, becoming the market's third-highest in trading volume that day for ETF (extremely rare for GLD), and was also the third-largest trading day by notional volume since its founding in 2004。

Some foreign firms’ trading desks observed GLD and gold miners ETF (GDX, GDXJ)On the institutional side, flows were skewed toward selling, mainly “long profit-taking” (long sales), selling pressure accelerated in the second half. In the primary market,, GLD saw a one-day outflow of 13 hundred million U.S. dollars, its largest single-day outflow since 2011；GDX also recorded redemptions of 2 hundred million U.S. dollars, a high for the past 12 months.

Besides Notes250417: How to Fully Escape Deflation: A Discussion of This Cycle’s Chinese Government Bonds and Renminbi-Denominated Gold, the PBOC’s True Operational Focus, and Another Possibility for Gold’s Rise (Including a Forecast Target Price)Beyond this article, I think everyone should still remember another perspective on gold that we offered at the beginning of this week—the idea actually came from zoltan...

A natural question then follows, From this perspective, what is happening in the crypto market when gold fails to break above our estimated range...?

Chart: Bitco overlaid on gold’s intraday chart

Chart: Another clearer chart

“Then, confirmation of a rebound in BTC could bring a simultaneous peak in gold... once they converge, be careful”

This is what we wrote in Notes250421The divergence between Bitco and gold: starting with Zoltan’s perspective verbatim, and It was on the very day Notes was published that Bitco made a minor breakout, officially confirming its move in the same direction as gold...

The very next day, gold began surging toward the top range we had estimated, and, as expected, failed to break through...

To reiterate, The date chosen to publish Notes was not arbitrary, and we were already watching BTC before it was published. Likewise, beyond the candlesticks, On 21, the market’s ETF allocation to spot crypto assets also picked up noticeably, and overall net inflows into crypto ETF exceeded 10 hundred million dollars, the largest single-day increase in recent months.

That’s how the market works.

Why cross-market asset logic matters (this is also why the community was named Cross-Market Asset Strategy; behind every highly profitable trade we make are traces of cross-asset dynamics),because within a single market, you have no pricing anchor.

Image source: WeeklyWrap250420 On Putting Macro Trading into Practice

Last weekend, we were already talking with our friends on Planet about how macro trading can actually be put into practice... Rather than focusing on getting the narrative right, we prefer to validate the results through actual market performance... Compared with being storytellers, we would rather be people who truly make money in the markets (and successfully realize profits and withdraw the cash)... Using our first-quarter trades (long gold, trading USD/CHF, trading USD/JPY, and so on) as examples, it discussed many practical details of execution.

If you haven’t seen it, go take a look; another weekend is almost here.

The next question is, If a correction begins, how will it unfold from there?

There are two kinds of trend change: a trend coming to a halt, meaning its slope flattens out, and a trend reversal (which can also be called a proper corrective pullback).If it is the former, the gold market may be heading into a rather long period of choppy trading, A period of choppy trading is unpredictable; the best approach is to exit your positions and wait for it to end, no one has a crystal ball to predict the market, and we don't have one either.

If it is the latter, that is actually preferable, because at least a corrective pullback has a logic to it in the market. Compared with a period of choppy trading, it offers macro traders greater predictability. How does algorithmic trading on Wall Street work?Most systematic trading systems still use range breakouts for their buy signals (at least, that’s what they were still doing when I was 24); once a breakout is confirmed, an order is placed automatically. The system’s decision at the point of entry is actually not complicated; the real complexity lies in the sell decision.

Many sell algorithms have now shifted to pattern-based machine learning, which means their behavior can be tracked. That is also why a genuine downward correction is more suitable for macro traders than a period of choppy trading: you can choose either to follow the dominant algorithms or to make money from these systematic trading firms, When there are “moves,” there are naturally ways to counter them. The moves themselves aren’t the concern; the concern is that they might not make a move.

Let’s revisit a basic principle: 1) Everyone knows gold has previously gone through a burst of price action; 2) estimates indicate that it will enter a corrective phase next; 3) the correction will not end until investors who chased prices higher have been completely shaken out.

Near the end of a major bull market, those who enter long last are often the ones most convinced that a pullback is impossible.The capital that chased prices higher will start clinging to its positions, convinced its judgment is right. But whether the decline comes all at once in a sharp move or, more likely, as a slow grind lower, it will eventually make them lose confidence and give up voluntarily.

The correction will truly end only when the last “bull who chased prices higher” admits defeat and sells.

This means the first expected support level for systematic traders to liquidate at will most likely emerge around 3200 dollars (The expected support level is more likely to break than to hold; a widely used stop-loss level is sure to be one where 100% will be stopped out) is likely to appear nearby (if the market follows a downward correction, a correction through choppy trading is impossible to trade because there are no patterns to follow).

Finally, this is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice—please make your own decisions and bear responsibility for your gains and losses:

We have fully closed and exited our core long positions in recent days. Over the past year, we maintained long exposure through several intermediate swings and earned solid returns in our accounts, which is satisfaction enough.

If we speak only of our “view,” we still believe that the long-term thesis for gold has not run its course and that there is still ample room to rise. But in terms of trading rhythm, the current price is already close to the upper end of our logical target range, and market sentiment is showing clear signs of irrationality. A clear correction or consolidation from here is the more likely path.

So we won’t try to catch the falling/adjusting knife either; most people who try to catch a falling knife end up losing fingers.

Every attempt to form a top range signals the start of an irrational period in the market: people who made money go mad, and those who chase in go even madder... During irrational periods, the certainty of holding positions necessarily declines sharply,

No one knows what Mr.Market will do tomorrow.

Cashing out and leaving, holding cash and waiting, or moving on to other markets is a better choice, at least for us.

2025.04.24

The (Only) Reason to Sell Gold (and Every Trade): A Continuation

As of the time of writing this Notes, gold has already begun correcting lower toward our expected first painful target 3200; in every candlestick, one can see the struggle of the longs who chased higher.

For further reading: Notes250425If Gold Starts Correcting: How We Anticipated This Week’s Failed Gold Rally, A Real-Time Application of the Zoltan Perspective + On Correction Trading Patterns (How to Hunt Algorithms)

Looking back on this round of gold-market trading, The week of 1 month 16 day was when we truly placed a heavy bet on gold longs.. (That day, we published Notes250116The Game Within the Game in U.S. Treasuries: Unrelated to Inflation and Unrelated to Debt), and after that, gold officially broke out and kept rising.

At that time, We were among the first in the entire market to analyze gold’s price movements by separating the Asian and U.S. trading sessions(At the time, the market was generally still discussing gold in terms of U.S. inflation or fiscal maneuvering),This was also the reason we truly dared to make a large bet at the time (a fact the market largely overlooked then): structural buying by sovereign institutions.

Chart: We were among the very first in the market to break down gold’s price movements by trading session, which strengthened our conviction to start building a large long position on day 16.

A saying widely repeated in the market goes: buying is for apprentices; selling is for masters.

We are also willing to offer our own answer to the question of how to sell.

This is also the only answer we give to the question of “when to sell”:

Not only in macro trading, but for speculators, traders, and even investors, every successful gain has one factor in common: adherence to consistency,

The one and only reason to choose to sell is that “the reason for buying no longer exists”.

In other words, for a mature trader, the only reason to sell must be that the reason for buying has come to an end.

No other reason for selling should be accepted or endorsed beyond this one; anyone who has survived in the market for a long time should understand this well. Looking back, every so-called “other” reason for selling is sure to have been the result of an irrational decision.

The same naturally applies to our long position in gold.

In fact, if we reassess today the reasons for buying on 1 16, it is clear that some interesting things are happening... changes have been quietly emerging..:

Chart: Looking again at the session chart

4 month 24 day, during the Asian session There was no further net buying of gold, what is more noteworthy, on the contrary, this could be said to be Over nearly the past quarter, gold in the Asian trading session saw its first truly significant decline。

Figure: Notes250415 Global Liquidity (Five): Dual-Dimensional Liquidity Structure and Yield Convexity

As repeatedly mentioned before, if everything is “normal,” then “abnormality” certainly will not occur; and if “abnormality” occurs, then things are certainly no longer “normal”...

Consistency is the only answer from beginning to end.

2025.04.25

III. Market Pulse

Our latest Comments on the economic and market environment

The divergence between Bitco and gold: starting with Zoltan’s perspective

Zoltan Pozsar’s latest views are quite interesting, so I’m sharing them with you at the start of this week. They may, to some extent, help provide a way to understand this divergence between BTC and gold.

He believes that the Bitcoin bill Trump had repeatedly brought up was actually a clever, indirect way to push up gold prices without drawing the bond market's attention.In other words, Bitcoin-related legislation (for example, allowing BTC to enter the reserve system, tax exemptions, pricing and settlement, and so on),On the surface, it is meant to support crypto assets; in reality, it may be quietly creating legitimacy for a rise in gold prices.

Why call it “quietly”? Because if the government openly bought gold or pushed up its price, the bond market would react immediately—meaning: 1) inflation expectations would rise; 2) real interest rates would fall; 3) U.S. Treasury prices would come under pressure and financing costs would rise;

This would disrupt overall financial stability and would be uneconomical, especially for a highly indebted government.

Gold is an anchor for long-term real interest rates and a boundary for the credit system. When government credit is overextended and inflationary pressure is hard to control, gold often becomes the anchor for repricing the monetary system.But if the market realizes that gold is being officially “repriced”: 1) the bond market will anticipate more monetary easing or a weakening of the dollar’s credit; 2) it will sell U.S. Treasuries in advance, pushing yields higher; 3) ultimately, this will undermine the government’s ability to finance itself.

In a nutshell, Zoltan’s core point is: don’t be misled by appearances.Whether it is framed as “Trump supporters like BTC” or as politicians chasing votes, its real policy consequence is to pave the way for gold to be vindicated and revalued.

Bitcoin legislation is not simply about supporting BTC; it uses Bitcoin to pave the way for gold’s repricing—and doing so will not alert the U.S. Treasury market, making it a “structural strategic tool” for bypassing the traditional financial market reaction mechanism.

This is also why, even as discussion of the bill intensifies, the two have moved in opposite directions in an unusual pricing divergence.

Chart: The day gold broke upward was precisely the day BTC broke downward(The bill debate was bearish on BTC and bullish on gold)

From this perspective, Then a confirmed rebound in BTC may bring a simultaneous top in gold Likewise, a surge in gold may also bring considerable short-term downside risk for BTC These two are consistent with each other.

This is just one perspective to watch; keep an eye on this chart going forward—it could be quite interesting. Be careful once the two converge.