January thirteenth, two thousand twenty-five
I. Foundation
resistance to change and hence greater dependability for the results shown in the past.
II. Insights
Our Viewpoints and ideas on market.
America First & how people perceive the news behind data and expectations
Trump’s America First policy clearly signals less interest in “endless wars,”This is another reason why we say inflation trades may not be much fun.
On Russia and Ukraine, Trump appointed retired US Army General Keith Kellogg as special envoy, and engage with Zelenskyy and Putin. Ukraine is seeking international security guarantees through a ceasefire agreement, while also mentioning Neutrality could serve as a basis for negotiations, which means it would give up the possibility of joining NATO.
Russia, meanwhile, insists that the 2022 Istanbul agreement must serve as the basis for negotiations, including Ukraine’s recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the independent status of Luhansk and Donetsk. The establishment of humanitarian corridors and a mechanism to monitor negotiations have also become key discussion points. Russia’s resilience to sanctions and whether Europe can maintain its defense commitments to NATO under current economic pressure will directly affect the course of future negotiations.
Polls show that the US public is optimistic about the economic outlook, but pessimism about foreign affairs continues to rise. The latest Gallup poll indicates that more than 2/3 of respondents expect the stock market to rise over the next year, and more than 50% are optimistic about improvements in employment and inflation. However, 66% are pessimistic about whether international disputes can be resolved peacefully.Partisan divisions remain pronounced: among Republican voters, 76% believe US global influence will increase, while Democratic voters take a more cautious view.
This partisan divide in views naturally leads to differing views of the market:
Source: University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey
Republicans have no inflation expectations because the person who “can solve every problem” was elected, while Democrats are the opposite, how people perceive the news behind data and expectations.
2025.01.13
III. Market Pulse
Our latest Comments on the economic and market environment
Note: All content in this article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and is not a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for decisions.